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  • #138,101
  • Dec 14, 2015 10:01am Dec 14, 2015 10:01am
Wow I love the oil insights! Great read, although I trade primarily EURUSD I might pick up some other instruments in the future if all keeps going well. Thanks for the heads up.
  • #138,102
  • Edited 11:13am Dec 14, 2015 11:00am | Edited 11:13am
Quoting Borg
{quote} ...A rate hike will only guarantee that the US economy will down farther than it already has.?? ....next Great Depression ?
Why do you say that? base on?

 

  1. Every single macro number is in sharp solid uptrends from GDP, employment, consumer confidence, retail sales, etc etc ticking 8 to 10 years highs in average in most of them.

  1. Every single sector is ticking up except Energy and Mining (which obviously have other major factors behind).

  1. Stock markets made fresh all time highs only a few months ago and we completed the biggest rally in a presidential double period in the history of stock markets +220%!!!,

  1. Inflation is inline with mandate and 'full employment' is a few ticks away having been out from nearly 12% to 5% in 6 years!!!...

  1. We have the longest period in the history of any CB across the whole globe with 0 interest rates on top of the largest QE program we witnessed in the last century?


For what exactly does the FED need to wait before hiking?

I understand that we are entering into US presidential elections and like usual there is a lot of noise especially from the party not in government (that happens everywhere) but from strictly technical macroeconomic point of view and more importantly for us from a TRADING/Investor point of view (without political bias, neither emotional arguments that politicians and the media usually use) we need to give priority to the technical facts and numbers over bias interpretations until the FED confirms or not the hike....for now ... there is nowhere to hide...

Quoting chester123
Anyone of u guys prepositioning for FED/short/mid term swing on E/U (as discussed before)? ...
Yes & soft yes preemptively on the second one as since the weekly close we have a potential quick zigzag volatility play first 1.103x -> 1.073x -> 1.113x (with extension to the 1.12.xx handle) with a dovish FED (meaning hike but dovish FED)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,103
  • Dec 14, 2015 11:47am Dec 14, 2015 11:47am
Yeah a dovish FED appears to be expected by Danske bank as well. How would that reflect on EURUSD specifically? Could it mean that instead of a downward move, some kind of "disappointment" rally could happen? Similar to the disappointment seen by Draghi? I'm talking about initial intraday / short term reactions.
  • #138,104
  • Dec 14, 2015 1:05pm Dec 14, 2015 1:05pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled in the Euro for the triple play .... a very bearish daily close (for the intraday and short term legs) but 1.097x (@IMARICH1 surprise surprise in the area we rolled??? ... i hope not ...) held by a couple of ticks the W close for a neutral close (for the mid term swing) unlocking wide volatility (no surprises there either) not only for next week (FED obviously) but till year's end with a quick zigzag play ...but those details are for next week ... sisse
I may be wrong but am going to call it early. Roll to .097X for the Daily close for NY despite a HH for the Month. Look at where we rolled again too. I noticed for the past 10 months we have rolled around this number more so in the last 4 to 5 months and the the LL set in Feb at .045x closed at .073X which has been a level as well and one sisse is looking at as a target for SHORT term (days)

I just wanted to beat you to the punch sisse as this seems to be a trademark quote for me to observe! Thanks for the help and your map for short term/mid term!
  • #138,105
  • Dec 14, 2015 3:02pm Dec 14, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I may be wrong but am going to call it early. Roll to .097X for the Daily close for NY despite a HH for the Month. Look at where we rolled again too. I noticed for the past 10 months we have rolled around this number more so in the last 4 to 5 months and the the LL set in Feb at .045x closed at .073X which has been a level as well and one sisse is looking at as a target for SHORT term (days) I just wanted to beat you to the punch sisse as this seems to be a trademark quote for me to observe! Thanks for the help and your map...
hmm ...I am not sure what you are looking at:

First we are +/- 800 ticks away for a HH in monthly? so not sure why do you say HH in monthlies.

Second the short term play (news play) to 1.073x is not really coming from the Monthly chart. Although coincidentally its around the same 1.073 Monthly Support you are mentioning, the flow for that trade is not related at all to that level ...

...If it is a short term/news play why should I be looking to such long term chart? (again are you implying catching a big fish with a small boat ? or trying to catch that tiny range from 1.097x when the mid term leg is +1200 ticks below? ) ..

--> Look if you are not trading the euro these following week(s) it will be an excellent opportunity to learn a very valuable lesson in swing trading (mid term swings only appear 2 or 3 times a year ) You may have the potential to pinpoint and witness live (before the fact and before everybody can clearly see in the charts)) the starting flow of a mid term swing leg.

Things are going to get a lot more complicate from a VISUAL/chart perspective after the FED announcement as the knee jerk reaction (news flow) can be deep, sharp and volatile and it may blur the analysis of the mid term leg in play (...making A LOT harder seeing the forest for the trees)

--> Assuming the FED doesn't flop, (that will be messy and a game changer short term as markets will be caught on the wrong side) try to focus on mid term leg instead of the short term one only this time. The lesson you could learn will be invaluable and can obviously be translated later on you trading plan in short term TFs.

Instead of looking on how to trade them etc etc. Just focus on mapping a leg. I challenge you to just using 5 price levels/horizontal lines in a Weekly chart (how do you calculate them, I don't care but the levels must be according to you and only you) define a map for a potential mid term swing as follows:

max level that you know you will 100% WRONG -----> A key support you expect on this side ---> FLIP (What is the level that will balance to one side or the other ---> A key resistance you expect on this side ---> the max target you can see in the swing

Let us know your theoretical map before the FED and we can talk about more details ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,106
  • Dec 14, 2015 4:52pm Dec 14, 2015 4:52pm
Hello, may I participate in the challenge?
On the horizon, a strengthening of the dollar and a weakening of the euro, so we are targeting new lows. If we take the current levels as the reference for the start of the move, triggered by the FED meeting, with a probable rate hike, dovish or not. Using the same method I use for my short term trading. I would say that the levels are:


- Level at wich I am wrong 100% ----> 1. 1191 (January 2015 low extension)

- FLIP (not sure about the concept, but I understand it as the last level bulls have some power to hold) --> 1.050

- Mid term target --> 1.00x

- Max extension --> 0.978x

Here is my chart, we can see that we are reacting to the 20 MA, a good signal in my opinion, something I like to see in short term swings.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 44 KB


Please, anyone, make any comment, I would like to talk and learn as much as we can about this flow, and we have here a very good opportunity and having great traders giving their opinions here, is invaluable.

troneras
Live and Keep Calm
  • #138,107
  • Dec 15, 2015 2:34am Dec 15, 2015 2:34am
considering a short around 38.00 again if it presents

USOil H4:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,108
  • Edited 2:56am Dec 15, 2015 2:41am | Edited 2:56am
BUNDS for sale earlier then expected, not fully loaded...

BUND D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,109
  • Dec 15, 2015 3:46am Dec 15, 2015 3:46am
Quoting troneras
Hello, may I participate in the challenge? On the horizon, a strengthening of the dollar and a weakening of the euro, so we are targeting new lows. If we take the current levels as the reference for the start of the move, triggered by the FED meeting, with a probable rate hike, dovish or not. Using the same method I use for my short term trading. I would say that the levels are: - Level at wich I am wrong 100% ----> 1. 1191 (January 2015 low extension) - FLIP (not sure about the concept, but I understand it as the last level bulls have some power...
​
Of course you can !!!! thats the whole point of my post .... Let's give the OP a chance to post his view before the news and then we can chat a bit more ...

Quoting USD-Bear
considering a short around 38.00 again if it presents USOil H4: {image}
OIL moves are unbelievable. We are moving 8%-10% daily(/2 days) moves as if the were nothing .... Yeap small OPEC countries entered in panic yesterday from Indonesia to Venezuela and all the other in between. The noise for a preemptive move from the OPEC was enough to trigger profit taking but they will NEED a bit more than that to form a solid bottom.

Any tick below the current lows unlock $26.xx for an actual trading range !!! (unbelievable the speed of the move really) that is naked now for a test. Also I run out of positions in OIL but reloading is starting to look very very complex. The FED collateral impact on OIL will give us a last chance this year ....

Quoting USD-Bear
BUNDS for sale earlier then expected, not fully loaded... BUND D1: {image}
Not yet there TA wise in my books... not interested in BUNDS until next week ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,110
  • Dec 15, 2015 4:05am Dec 15, 2015 4:05am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ​ Of course you can !!!! thats the whole point of my post .... Let's give the OP a chance to post his view before the news and then we can chat a bit more ... {quote} OIL moves are unbelievable. We are moving 8%-10% daily(/2 days) moves as if the were nothing .... Yeap small OPEC countries entered in panic yesterday from Indonesia to Venezuela and all the other in between. The noise for a preemptive move from the OPEC was enough to trigger profit taking but they will NEED a bit more than that to form a solid bottom. Any tick below...
what expectation on E/u pair ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,111
  • Dec 15, 2015 4:13am Dec 15, 2015 4:13am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} what expectation on E/u pair ...
My guess.... we get to max 1.097 lvl approx. I.e. price slides to 1.097 and lower for FED play. Reason: the upside tendency of last 2-4 days is technically looking extremelly exhausted - indicators holding bearish divergencies on H4, Monday D1 close bearish, bearish engulfing on H4 etc...
  • #138,112
  • Dec 15, 2015 4:15am Dec 15, 2015 4:15am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} what expectation on E/u pair ...
Ehm, and now I advise u to do the exact opposite cuz sometimes it seems the market watches me to do the exact opposite
  • #138,113
  • Dec 15, 2015 4:23am Dec 15, 2015 4:23am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Ehm, and now I advise u to do the exact opposite cuz sometimes it seems the market watches me to do the exact opposite
actually i am totally a technical and little long term trader ... i prefer putting the trade and get into sleeping mode ....

from my perspective i think we are sooner going to end the downtrend for euro in a couple of weeks .... hope i am right and trying to learn fundamental analysis a lot from your and sisse's post..

can you and sisse both prefer some good books on FA in which the details are from scratch....

waiting for response from both of u ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,114
  • Dec 15, 2015 5:38am Dec 15, 2015 5:38am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} actually i am totally a technical and little long term trader ... i prefer putting the trade and get into sleeping mode .... from my perspective i think we are sooner going to end the downtrend for euro in a couple of weeks .... hope i am right and trying to learn fundamental analysis a lot from your and sisse's post.. can you and sisse both prefer some good books on FA in which the details are from scratch.... waiting for response from both of u ....
Its interesting cuz I would say the longer term trader you are the better fundamental analysis behind you is necessary cuz the mid and long term swings just do not happen as "randomly" as intrady M15 flows - they are determined by the previaling macro trends.

In any case, Sisse is the one to talk about it, as Im as he says "newbie". In my case: I do love macroeconomics so I recomend pretty much any university macroecnomy textbook (+ some on financial markets)- on one side Im pretty sceptical to the "methods" of economy as a science to "obejctively" describe what going on or to predict what is gonna happen - I mean economy does not even claim to have this aspiration - they hide behind the "models/modeling" approach so they can say - you see our model was right cuz were awesome economists and if all goes to hell they say "its just a model so what do u expect". Lets call it hypocrisy

With this in mind its still good to know what the generall macroeconomic theory discurse is as it gives you a way to interpret the reality in a way most of the participants of markets do and so you know where the boat is generally heading or what is at least thought to be the direction!! And I think that way you can see the generall prevailing interpretation which also points to some kind of future market behavior. You can always be marxists but seeing the economic reality through that would make ones trading disaster I bet So one thing is to have ones personal perception of economic reality (marxist, "zerohedge" kind of ) and another one is the approach to reality if you wanna trade it. Hm, I think Sisse also writes about this sometimes.

Honestly, I wonder if there are any good books an fundamental analysis - ones putting together macro and trading. Cuz I understand that university macro textbooks may not be the most usefull thing if ones want to see how all the macro works together with "charts/price/trading". Would be interesting if sisse has some good ones. For me its about the boring textbooks, looking into charts and reading sisse (+ some other good ones on FF) But always open to new sources

P.S.: sorry for the length
  • #138,115
  • Dec 15, 2015 5:51am Dec 15, 2015 5:51am
[quote=chester123;8645725]{quote}
You can always be marxists but seeing the economic reality through that would make ones trading disaster I bet So one thing is to have ones personal perception of economic reality (marxist, "zerohedge" kind of )

Can you explain me what do you understand as Marxist in the Economy theory or reality??
  • #138,116
  • Dec 15, 2015 5:59am Dec 15, 2015 5:59am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Honestly, I wonder if there are any good books an fundamental analysis - ones putting together macro and trading. Cuz I understand that university macro textbooks may not be the most usefull thing if ones want to see how all the macro works together with "charts/price/trading". Would be interesting if sisse has some good ones. For me its about the boring textbooks, looking into charts and reading sisse (+ some other good ones on FF) But always open to new sources P.S.: sorry for the length
here is kill56's link to his profile which he has tons of pdfs on inter market fundamental analysis http://www.forexfactory.com/search.p...rchid=18217505
Courtesty to The Fool who gave me insight on finding the info....
  • #138,117
  • Edited 10:01am Dec 15, 2015 6:11am | Edited 10:01am
sisse,

I am up for the challenge. And, my plan is probably way off; but, a plan. I am ready to scolded, critiqued and laughed at in an attempt to get this part of my trading up to par. I must admit I don't understand swings as much because I see price action always in a form of waves/legs but do not predict the correct leg as well.

First, I meant the Month of December had a HH set but we still rolled to .098X/7X level. First we are +/- 800 ticks away for a HH in monthly? so not sure why do you say HH in monthlies.

I posted 3 charts. The first 2 are Weekly Charts and the last one is a Monthly just showing why .097X is a key level in TA perspective. It is also a FLIP area for me but doesn't stand out on the Weekly as much as it does on Monthly. I am not sure how to interpret the FLIP area I marked at .0808 on WEEKLY compared to Monthly .097X/82.

I know you said to scale out to WEEKLY but wanted you to see my thinking on honing in on this FLIP area which I drop down to smaller TF. On the DAY/4HR chart I see .0935 as a Key Level of Support and if broken, I would view that as a FLIP area as well. On 1Hr it would .0924. (and we closed around .0920 for London Close)This is where I am not skilled and am not well versed in finding a Leg as there are different FLIPs on Monthly Weekly and DAY/4hr.

Nevertheless, here is my feeble attempt:
Instead of looking on how to trade them etc etc. Just focus on mapping a leg. I challenge you to just using 5 price levels/horizontal lines in a Weekly chart (how do you calculate them, I don't care but the levels must be according to you and only you) define a map for a potential mid term swing as follows:

max level that you know you will 100% WRONG -----> (.8211)A key support you expect on this side (.0438) ---> FLIP (What is the level that will balance to one side or the other --->(.0808) A key resistance you expect on this side --->(.1094) the max target you can see in the swing (.1348)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Weekly-Main.jpg Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Weekly.jpg Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Monthly.jpg Size: 47 KB
  • #138,118
  • Dec 15, 2015 6:12am Dec 15, 2015 6:12am
Quoting Lavanda
You can always be marxists but seeing the economic reality through that would make ones trading disaster I bet So one thing is to have ones personal perception of economic reality (marxist, "zerohedge" kind of ) Can you explain me what do you understand as Marxist in the Economy theory or reality??
Well, for me, you have one reality of society and its economy. And on ground of that, economical science constructs theories, which claim to be the descriptive theoretical notions explaining why things are as they are - the scale of certainty they claim can be different = e.g. marxisms absolute certainty of its interpretation of the reality and historical necessity of its "discoveries" given by its "natural law" character VS recent mainstream "model" economic theory. Plus most of these are followed by a normative framework of how things should be as to fit some "values", which the approach/school/discourse has taken as its own.

So this is what I understand by it - its a theory (i.e. set of approaches, causation explications, its outcomes, values etc.), which has a descriptive and normative approach to economic reality as well as any other competing interpretation.

Its succes, legitimity, method, morality etc. is another question
  • #138,119
  • Dec 15, 2015 6:20am Dec 15, 2015 6:20am
Quoting roobii
{quote} here is kill56's link to his profile which he has tons of pdfs on inter market fundamental analysis http://www.forexfactory.com/search.p...rchid=18217505 Courtesty to The Fool who gave me insight on finding the info....
Thank you. The link does not work but Im gonna try to dig through that profile
  • #138,120
  • Dec 15, 2015 6:24am Dec 15, 2015 6:24am
Quoting primejarvis
{...can you and sisse both prefer some good books on FA in which the details are from scratch....
Well this is one of the most frequent questions I hear. Where do I find FA books for trading etc and I always struggle to give a straight answer because there are none or very few to say the least and some of them are just about correlated markets etc not really proper fundamentals.

The main issue here is that there are 2 different topics. One is Economics/Macroeconomics as a science where there are millions of books available and the other is Economics/Macroeconomics for trading & investing. There I struggle to name one worth to recommend as trading (especially and VERY SADLY) is consider for MAIN STREAM ACADEMIA out of the domain of economics and more in the domain of Finance which has left a huge GAP in between.

This is a very long topic to discuss before NY opens but in general if you need FA books/path recommendations for trading I can only give you guidelines to explore but you will need to build your path, because as far as I know nobody has yet formalise a nice academic/book path for Macroeconomics for Trading Currencies yet (sounds like a good name for a book ...jejeje)...

I am sure will discuss more details later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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