Hyperion's Notebook

Just Sold USD/JPY at 120.82
Holding Short Kiwi
Holding Short Euro... dumb trade in hindsight. Capflow still very "Buy mode".
To me the intra-day action just looks extremely bearish. Actually, too bad, I'm closing it. Stick to method duh.
Closed EUR/USD short at 1.0982 = -51

Doubled USD/JPY short here at 120.91
Just in case we get big risk off in equity land.
Capflow is a Sell anyway....

Closed Kiwi shorts .6784 = - 34
Would normally give it a chance but don't want too much risk on this week what with the Fed.
Holding short USD/JPY x 2.

Time to re-focus. Kiwi = no problem apart from the fact that I would normally give it more rope, closed it in fear, also I need to do the AUD and NZD at the same time / same signal because the AUD drop yeilded over 100 pts. EUR/USD was a dumb trade totally in opposition to Capflow, don't be a smart a$$. USD/JPY is OK apart from double volume at a bad trade location.

Time to ask the two questions. What would annoy me more, losing on this position by holding it through this week's vol or closing it now only to see the USD/JPY fall......
Don't know it's 50/50 ATM, will have a think. What would Peter Griffen do?

Closed USD/JPY shorts at 121.81. = -94
Capflow is a sell still (just) but everywhere I look I see US$ strength.
Capflow is a sell for AUD and Kiwi and a Buy for EUR but one more down day in NY session and it turns to a sell again.

Bought EUR/USD 200k @ 1.0834. Not a Capflow trade, just a cheeky long cos everyone around me is bearish and I think nothing is trending ATM.

Still holding Long EUR/USD spot as above.

Just closed half the USD/JPY 122 Put at 121.05 = +95 (minus premium 16 pips) = +79 net.

I am amazed that we didn't get knocked out (120) on the first run down last week.

Still Holding Short USD/JPY from balance of the 122 Put Option and Long EUR/USD.

Just in case China does something today (thanks Merlin) I have bought a USD/JPY 120 Put that knocks out above at 120.80.
Expires TK Cut Thursday and cost 14 pips.... If something happens and risk-off tips this pair over I would be targeting low 118 for some and low 117's for the balance. We'll see...

USD/JPY Put option expired worthless lost 14 pips.

Have to close the EUR Long ASAP, still in the money but not part of my plan. Close at 1.0856 = + 22 pips

Holding Short USD/JPY.

Closed USD/JPY shorts on a resting order at 119.05 = +295 pts.

Flat now. Looking....

Just Bought NZD/USD at .6757
...and bought AUD/USD at .7208

Capflow trades + nice pullback... fingers crossed risk goes back on...

Hard stops on above at .6592 and .7062.. Capflow turns Red in NY tonight UNLESS we get some Buying in NY session.
For now Capflow remains Black for Comdols, Red for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD...

Yikes, doubled up on above trades, NZD = .66425 and AUD .71105..... Doubled stops as well.

Both are on trendline support and Kiwi is on 50% pullback of the whole rally. Good risk apart from the fact that I am adding to a loser....

Stopped on AUD/USD last night .7062 = - 146 and - 48.5 and closed NZD/USD at market .6633 = - 124 and - 9.5

You only ever learn from your losers and this has sharpened my mind to how to properly use Capflow. Capflow + HA Daily Candle agreement + 4 hrly pullback Stocks extreme followed by supportive new candle = great entry for 150 to 250 pts.

ouch, new entry system sounds good though.

Hi Mate, yeah this is still a work in progress! I still can't decide whether to "equity millipede" the system and take every trigger (small units that build) throughout the life of the Capflow signal, or bang out a big trade on what I perceive to be the best set up within the Capflow structure... I will trial the millipede version via a demo and keep doing my selected sniper type entries with real money I think.
Happy New Year Buddy!

Back on deck after a day off following a very big Saturady night/Sunday morning...
Current positions = Short EUR spot and own a RKO Put, just today bought kiwi and Oz in smalls.

Yesterday reviewing Capflow. It is only a trend continuation tool. Whilst it can be used as a reversal system (and I should have a small part of my account always in agreement with it) I still believe I am better to master JPS thinking on trading / catching Minus Development. That's the vertical move a market makes in Step 1 before morphing to Step 2, 3 and lastly 4. Step 4 being the end of a distribution and of note because in his teachings, that's from where the next Step 1 emanates from.

I am convinced this is how I want to view the market. No S/R, tech indicators or any other tool, just a present tense understanding of whether we are actually vertical or not (Step 1). Then master the art of seeing when the next Step is missed and another Step 1 starts. (minus development).

How do we identify the crucial reference point that is the end of a distribution? How to we measure how far the market has traded above or below that in order to know that we want to "go with" the move? How do we stay with the move until Step 2 start?

These three critical question will occupy my thoughts this week.

Note: My use of the name Capflow is just a Hat Tip to JPS and should not be confused with his actual Capital Flow Software. Capflow internals comes from a single page in one of his early books which he didn't really concentrate on but which in my experience has been one of the most useful part of his teachings.

#1-
#2-
"Go with" or "go against".

#3-
Good questions.

I don't use capflow but I understand your questions within the context of my own work (wave analysis). This is a classical 1-2-3 move.


I had found good answers for #2 when I measured the market on a single timeframe basis. (M30 x7)

The tricky part has always been #1 and #3. My current status of research says that...
1-Single timeframe basis generally works well to measure accumulation, hence the statistical basis for accumulation is very consistent.
2-But perhaps not distribution when still using single timeframe.
3-Higher timeframes do affect how price is 'stretched', hence what I should be doing is to properly created a multiple timeframe model (at least 2 layers : (M30 x7) and (M240 x7) ). I do have something now, its not completed, but promising on first glance.
4-The model has to account for how the lower TF passes the baton onto the higher timeframe and back. Aka controlling timeframe.

Thanks Rel,
Below is a simple graphic (copied) that describes the Four Step MP process, I think it relates to your diagram only in MP terms, the end of a distribution would be around the zone of the 1st Standard Deviation (I imagine that's somewhere within your Yellow Box)... where trading activity almost stops for a period before a new Step 1 starts the next distribution. This can be counter trend or with the trend.
I think the key is identifying the start of Step 1 (the first 2 questions above), staying with the full move of Step 1 I think can be achieved using Capflow.