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Hyperion's Notebook

  • #241
  • Feb 21, 2016 10:04pm Feb 21, 2016 10:04pm
Doubled Long USD/JPY... I am working on the assumption that we will be in a range similar to last Sept after the August drop...

To that end have bought a nice fat juicy Double No Touch option for 4 weeks barriers 111.50 and 115.50, if neither trades I'll get a 6 figure payout all for a cost of 6% of said pay-out... as always, we'll see.
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  • #242
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:32pm Feb 22, 2016 1:32pm
Open letter to the USD/JPY - Will you please get off your butt and get with the program? Ever heard of One Team, One Dream?

DXY Chart update heading higher, back to where it started....
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  • #243
  • Feb 23, 2016 6:21pm Feb 23, 2016 6:21pm
USD/JPY Bears everywhere I look (including my inbox), it's mentally taxing to stay with a long position against the deafening bear noise but I have strong reason to expect a range an will stay for now.

The Long position is at extreme lows, in the past this has always sparked a rally from such levels, see chart below. Red ling is Long only interest... (none!)
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  • #244
  • Feb 24, 2016 3:44pm Feb 24, 2016 3:44pm
My USD/JPY Double NO Touch level was molested last night and the option extinguished... remain with long Spot.... More than a little frustrated this week, EUR/USD not rallying enough to sell and more drawdown than I would have liked on the USD/JPY range trade idea....
  • #245
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:36am Mar 4, 2016 12:36am
What a difference a few days can make, banked USD/JPY, bought again, been long GBP/USD +110 and now long GBP/JPY and long USD/JPY 113.25 Calls, expiry 10am NY.
This experiment is going well, equity chart per $100k position size below. Average possy now more like 500k to 750k. Will sell any EUR/USD rally and Buy any USD/JPY dip on Non Farm... Capflow is very supportive of this.
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  • #246
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:41pm Jun 19, 2016 11:41pm
It's been a while, been so busy, finally made an amount which made me sit up and take notice. What changed? Just ONE thing I think - Focus. That's it. I mean real and honest focus. Also changing my view of the markets from a linear type one to a three dimensional game space where you can really have some fun if you can handle the equity volatility. I.E. USD/JPY trades that went $250k, 250 pts, $500k, 250pts, $1 mill 250 pts, $2 mill 250 pts. Work it out. Real meaningful $$$. Take a view on your method, know that you DO get runs of 4+ repeat signals yielding 250pts and risk each trade what you made on the last! Believe me it's exhilarating and rewarding and once you've done it, you realise how easy it actually is....
  • #247
  • Jul 19, 2016 11:18pm Jul 19, 2016 11:18pm
In Search of Vertical Moves.....

I am going to put my focus on finding the start of vertical moves because obviously they are instant gratification and best of all have small risk because either they are fast and vertical or you are out and not involved.

Their formation lends a lot to waterfalls... a period of flat calm trading where the market almost stops trading. ATR's collapse with volatility. Then for whatever reason a break up/down occurs and drives for a period in one direction.

In Market Profile terms, the calm preceding part is the end of Step 4. The end of a distribution. The start of the vertical move is the start of a Step 1, the start of a new distribution.

The KEY, is to be very objective on exactly what constitutes the start of the move. More on that soon but they could include all kinds of set ups I have already seem here on FF.

Below is a well chosen example in the USD/JPY, potential entry triggers are all over the place, 4hrly IB's, Vantage 1,2,3 type set ups,etc
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  • #248
  • Jul 20, 2016 12:03am Jul 20, 2016 12:03am
Quoting Hyperion
In Search of Vertical Moves..... I am going to put my focus on finding the start of vertical moves because obviously they are instant gratification and best of all have small risk because either they are fast and vertical or you are out and not involved. Their formation lends a lot to waterfalls... a period of flat calm trading where the market almost stops trading. ATR's collapse with volatility. Then for whatever reason a break up/down occurs and drives for a period in one direction. In Market Profile terms, the calm preceding part is the end...
I concur This kind of 'trend' is what Darryl Guppy calls 'Parabolic Trend'
  • #249
  • Jul 20, 2016 6:46pm Jul 20, 2016 6:46pm
Quoting Relativity
{quote} I concur This kind of 'trend' is what Darryl Guppy calls 'Parabolic Trend'
Thanks Relativity, I'll take a look at his work. The reason I want to focus more on a "go with" strategy rather than a "go against" one is I am terrible at range type trading and tend to prefer entering break outs. It's often a negative result because lets face it the market washes back and forth 80% of the time. This is why I want to try and ensure I am framing the market action in terms of an end of a distribution and the start of a new one.

Another good example is below. I like using Peter Crowns IB entries especially when price is in "fresh air" with no overlapping values. Reason is I believe this is what he means by trading the HOT Money. I call these times - decision moments. It's when buyers and sellers decide (at the pause) whether it's buy the dip or sell the dump.
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  • #250
  • Jul 20, 2016 6:55pm Jul 20, 2016 6:55pm
JPS states that if a new distribution starts but reverses to go through the other side of the reference point (the end of Step 4) then it's a new bigger distribution in that new direction. This makes sense because the market has tested one side and found no business or no interest in continuing and so HAS to try the other direction because doing business IS the purpose of the market. Example below.
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  • #251
  • Jul 20, 2016 8:58pm Jul 20, 2016 8:58pm
A well chosen example of a failed initial move followed by a larger distribution the other way. JPS calls these Yellows and he says they happen 15% of the time.

His thoughts are:

Green (good move that continues) = 40%
Yellow (failed move followed by a good one) = 15%
White (absolutely nothing happens either way) = 5%
Red = (small move only) = 40%

Actually I think I have these slight wrong and will correct later. Either way it calls for searching for Step 4's and then "going with" subsequent direction. I am only adding triggers such as IB's and others to get me to act and have clear stop loss points.

Chart below is a great big Yellow example.
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  • #252
  • Jul 20, 2016 9:14pm Jul 20, 2016 9:14pm
Don't forget Minus Development. That's the fast Step 1 move. Even if you miss the first entry, the next pullback is safe to take because either:

1) We are still in Step 1 (continuation) and will print more minus development by jumping into a double Step 1.

or

2) We start Step 2 which is more two way business and so entering on a pullback will be very safe anyway... Try and hold into Step 3 at the most. How do you hold? Try 4 hrly HA Candles continuations or an Exp 14 or 24 MA cross.
  • #253
  • Jul 20, 2016 9:25pm Jul 20, 2016 9:25pm
Time to apply to a real time example. Fingers crossed.
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  • #254
  • Jul 21, 2016 4:00pm Jul 21, 2016 4:00pm
Silver (above) is flirting with the resistance that should be the end of the last Step 4... we'll see...

Just now I have sold half a USD/JPY on the thinking that this could be a Yellow. The blue box could be the end of a Step 4 which proceeded a move in the "wrong" direction.
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  • #255
  • Jul 21, 2016 11:05pm Jul 21, 2016 11:05pm
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  • #256
  • Jul 21, 2016 11:09pm Jul 21, 2016 11:09pm
Looking at the Daily chart makes me think the reference point is the Daily IB. I wonder if that should be a qualifying thing.
Either way even if it's going to work it looks like it's a White or Red situation but I'll keep an open mind for now. (Green would be nice!)
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  • #257
  • Jul 21, 2016 11:27pm Jul 21, 2016 11:27pm
Yearly MP chart for he EUR suggests to me that whilst we are running out of time in the current price area, we can fill out the profiles a little more in the 1.0850 to 1.1150 range. After that we should have a completed distribution and can start a new vertical direction.
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  • #258
  • Jul 24, 2016 9:45pm Jul 24, 2016 9:45pm
Something to explore:

In the interests of having the highest possible probabilities stacked in your favour, forget the Step 1 move, Let it telegraph itself, then wait for the top of the Step 2 to sell (reverse for buy). If you are clear that the Step 1 is in progress (a directional move), simply wait for the pullback which announces the start of Step 2 and enter on a pullback of either 4hrly Stocks followed by a 4 hrly IB or a pullback of the magnitude of a 3 ATR.

This way you will capture the largest part of the development phase and if you're lucky will enter a market that skips the Steps and starts a Step 1 (Minus Development) again...

Also I feel that even if my interpretation of the Steps is out of sync, at least my trade location should be such that it won't be damaging if wrong, also as long as I am attempting to sell rallies I should be correct for Step 2, 3 and 4.

This is what the market does 80% of the time and I admit this experiment started out as an attempt to capture the vertical moves, so make yer mind up...

A follow on idea could be to enter on a trigger if you feel it is a Step 1 but only on half your position. Save the other half for a Step 2 entry in case you entered Step 1 too late.
  • #259
  • Jul 25, 2016 5:51pm Jul 25, 2016 5:51pm
Quoting Hyperion
A well chosen example of a failed initial move followed by a larger distribution the other way. JPS calls these Yellows and he says they happen 15% of the time.

His thoughts are:
Green (good move that continues) = 40%
Yellow (failed move followed by a good one) = 15%
White (absolutely nothing happens either way) = 5%
Red = (small move only) = 40% Actually I think I have these slight wrong and will correct later.

Either way it calls for searching for Step 4's and then "going with" subsequent direction. I am only adding triggers such as IB's...
I would look into these numbers and see what I can find.
  • #260
  • Jul 26, 2016 3:26pm Jul 26, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting Relativity
{quote} I would look into these numbers and see what I can find.
These are taken from JPS book New Market Discoveries. Some people find it a bit abstract unless you are familiar with his earlier books.
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