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  • #121
  • Dec 9, 2015 3:29pm Dec 9, 2015 3:29pm
Good Job Op -Good stuff

I used levels off the weekly candle and the daily (the prev weekly candle was bigger than usual due to NF news so I used the prev daily levels this week)

I am Basically just wick zone trading, used breakout this week- I am on this ride as well.

Regards
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #122
  • Dec 9, 2015 3:38pm Dec 9, 2015 3:38pm
Just showing you something. I'm not getting into posting live charts in this thread. I'm not able to do it for one thing. For the other I posted enough live charts in the other thread, a fair few of them before the trade took place.

Yes, I COULD have gone short at the start of the week maybe would have made some pips, I don't know BUT consider this. I was asleep in bed without a care in the world dreaming about what I was going to do to this hooker later in the week. Monday morning was messy.
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As you can see I'm just showing 2 TF charts to show something, both were completely irrelevent to the trade entry but they help to show one more thing to consider:
  • #123
  • Dec 9, 2015 4:04pm Dec 9, 2015 4:04pm
With this method do you end up in a trade every week?
Are you watching multiple pairs and the first one the gives up the ghost and shows u what you want to see, are u just taking that single trade?
Are you letting the magic 6h bars guide you ie. if price engulfs against you are u getting out, or are u waiting to see a bar close over the open to get in a trade? Or is it just to remind u check in every 6h and see how things are.

These questions are just for experimentation on the charts.
  • #124
  • Edited 5:00pm Dec 9, 2015 4:40pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting nunrgguy
Just showing you something. I'm not getting into posting live charts in this thread. I'm not able to do it for one thing. For the other I posted enough live charts in the other thread, a fair few of them before the trade took place. Yes, I COULD have gone short at the start of the week maybe would have made some pips, I don't know BUT consider this. I was asleep in bed without a care in the world dreaming about what I was going to do to this hooker later in the week. Monday morning was messy. {image} {image} As you can see I'm just showing 2 TF...
Got it - from what I can determine one level is the weekly open and the other level is prev weeks high, (or depending on price- prev weeks low ?
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #125
  • Dec 10, 2015 1:39am Dec 10, 2015 1:39am
this weeks open. The line I drew at the to was just an alarm I set as I was going to bed. If price came back there I was going to close: and did.
If you're trading a 25 pip 'renko' trailing logic is 50 pips if you want to capture moves. If it was going up and has dropped 50 frthen it has closed down comparative to the last up.
So it's now Thursday, the retrace from the extreme is happening. There's a good chance there'll be no more longs this week on this pair although I don't rule anything out.
  • #126
  • Dec 10, 2015 1:46am Dec 10, 2015 1:46am
Quoting fxfury
With this method do you end up in a trade every week? Are you watching multiple pairs and the first one the gives up the ghost and shows u what you want to see, are u just taking that single trade? Are you letting the magic 6h bars guide you ie. if price engulfs against you are u getting out, or are u waiting to see a bar close over the open to get in a trade? Or is it just to remind u check in every 6h and see how things are. These questions are just for experimentation on the charts.
There's a trade almost every week. If there isn't one I don't care. I don't trade many different pairs. 6 hour bars are just a tool in the toolbox, a 6 hour gleb at how things are doing. I'm actually more interested by far in where price is..
  • #127
  • Dec 10, 2015 1:48am Dec 10, 2015 1:48am
Quoting JoshuaHope
{quote} lol, if we are gonna talk hookers, you cant leave out the wet celery or the flying helmet.
I can see you're on the same wavelength as me. You FILTHY barstard
  • #128
  • Dec 10, 2015 4:57am Dec 10, 2015 4:57am
Quoting nunrgguy
{quote} I can see you're on the same wavelength as me. You FILTHY barstard
That I am.
  • #129
  • Dec 10, 2015 5:25pm Dec 10, 2015 5:25pm
Well I tried to take this for a spin this week. I traded 6 pairs.
Ended up netting 471 pips so can't sneeze at that. Probably dumb luck though. We'll see in weeks to come.
Thanks again for the ideas Nun.
  • #130
  • Edited 2:15am Dec 11, 2015 1:17am | Edited 2:15am
Of course it's dumb luck. Anyone telling you anything else is telling porkies.

How you manage your trade isn't though. As long as you have the stats on your side and a logical reason to enter rather than tea leaves, you will remain consistent in your application. Whether the ensuing win or loss is large or small is down to how much the market moves, and your reason for entering has no bearing on this whatsoever, and how you react to that movement.

The alternative is unquantifiable and random.

Just remember what some dead bloke said 'for any edge the ongoing results will be random', paraphrasing. I.e whether the next trade wins or loses is completely random. In fact whether the next tick is up or down is completely random.

What matters though is that you have an 'edge' or rather there is something that says, statistically there is x% chance likelihood of y which is a bit larger than w% chance of z.

Oh. Probabilities?. 'High probability method/s'? Complete bullsh1t. There are no probabilities and no one has ever done a probability analysis.

'See price at 'support'' ok...define support
'This line I drew here' ok.. Why here?
'Because it looked good'...if that one looked good, why didn't this on or this one or this one look good???
'Supply and demand curve maaaan'. What's that supposed to mean?
'Dunno, anyway, what you then do is wait for a pin bar or an engulfing candle or an inside bar then you place a stop order at the break of the high of that bar'...ok, why didn't you enter here then?
'That bar wasn't good enough' ...riiight... Now look at the 15 minute chart mate and combine some bars, what do you see?
'Yeah that's looks like a pin bar but it isn't one because they only happen on the hourly timeframe, they're the high probability ones. They've got to look nice too'...ok so you draw all these lines at random prices based on random events in the past, you then sit and watch the screen for weeks waiting for the random occurrence of a pin bar on an hourly chart that has to look right somehow. You then enter at a random price and place your stop at the low of a random occurance which is small enough to be within the current daily range and likely to get hit. And you manage your trade how??
'Its high probability : I look for the next s/r" you look for the next random price point your eyes draw you to...btw if these patterns are so special and so rare how are you posting about 10 trades a week on the forum???
  • #131
  • Dec 11, 2015 2:53am Dec 11, 2015 2:53am
Just saw this excellent post from Neio:

Here is my kind of thinking when looking at OHLC data. Say if I was to just go long on candle open (not suggesting you trade like this). At what point would I know that I am probably trading in the wrong direction of the candle/market and get out?
Good one to ponder

Is it possible to learn this from OHLC data? Short side and long side of candle? Frequency distribution tables is a good way. Is such knowledge enough to trade successfully in itself? What do you learn from it that you can apply to other things that you have learned/discovered? For example does price movement care about what time it started?
Nope, it cares not one jot.

So why limit yourselves to apply what you learn to just one reference point. I mean, could the same not be applied to an hourly candle starting and ending at 1 minute past the hour?
We absolutely could, ultimately though we have to define things around what is convenient and practical.
  • #132
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:00am Dec 11, 2015 3:00am
An engineer and a mathematician are each presented with a beautiful woman and the stipulation that at each time interval, they may move half of the remaining distance towards her.
The mathematician points out that the distance will never reach zero, and walks away in disgust, "Impossible!".
The engineer, while fully understanding the maths says, "10 feet, 5 feet, 2 and a half feet, 1 and a quarter feet, three quarters of a foot, near enough"
  • #133
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:18am Dec 11, 2015 3:18am
Quoting nunrgguy
of course it's dumb luck. How you manage your trade isn't though. As long as you have the stats on your side and a logical reason to enter rather than tea leaves, you will remain consistent in your application. Whether the ensuing win or loss is large or small is down to how much the market moves, and your reason for entering has no bearing on this whatsoever, and how you react to that movement. The alternative is unquantifiable and random. Just remember what some dead bloke said 'for any edge the ongoing results will be random', paraphrasing. I.e...
Hi nunrgguy;

As you have Observed the Market isn't about what's being printed on a chart (Candles).

This is what the Market Makers want us to see and more importantly want us to have belief in.

It's by creating this belief in us that certain things will happen at Support - Resistance - Trend Lines - Pin bars etc ect, and they then use this belief in order to Accumulate Orders, Manipulate Price (Stop Hunts - False Break Outs ect) and when they have Accumulated enough Orders the Market will move in their intended direction (Trend) which we all eagerly follow and they, the Money Makers, are more than willing to Sell to us or Buy from us, depending on Bearish or Bullish move, to Liquidate their Accumulated positions for profit.

It's only by understanding this process that we move away from Observing Candles (tThe Facade) to really getting to grips with what lies behind the Candles.

By the time we see the Trend the Money that has control of the Market is already taking their Profit.
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  • #134
  • Dec 11, 2015 9:43am Dec 11, 2015 9:43am
For EU the weekly range is roughly 280-300 pips. When you where talking about stops beyond the weekly range, were you referring to your total position ie space? But actual Line IN Sand stops should be 50-100 pips depending how tight you want to trail or how many lines you want to watch?
  • #135
  • Dec 11, 2015 9:51am Dec 11, 2015 9:51am
unless you do the work and look at some frequency distributions you won't know will you?? I.e. If long above the open what's the lower wick range? But yes, generally speaking my get out is around 50 pips usually, but depending on how price moves I'll often tighten to 25. And yes you're right sometimes I break my own rules and stick that 50 pips within the range. I think this week on Euro I did just that.
  • #136
  • Dec 11, 2015 10:10am Dec 11, 2015 10:10am
Quoting nunrgguy
unless you do the work and look at some frequency distributions you won't know will you?? I.e. If long above the open what's the lower wick range? But yes, generally speaking my get out is around 50 pips usually, but depending on how price moves I'll often tighten to 25. And yes you're right sometimes I break my own rules and stick that 50 pips within the range. I think this week on Euro I did just that.
hi nunrgguy, thanks for your great thread. I actually did some distribution tables based of 1000 1 hour gu candles, in fact there is another thread with a spreadsheet similar to mine showing an edge for this method. Only problem is I cant seem to get a good risk to reward ratio using it. I'm finding myself chipping away taking say 1 risk for 0.5 reward. Occasionally ill get a fast mover and take 1 risk to 3 reward. Obviously managing trade is key. Would you mind talking about r:r at all?
  • #137
  • Dec 11, 2015 11:04am Dec 11, 2015 11:04am
1.Trading h1 your costs will not tend towards 0
2. Price requires time to move and you're not giving it any.
3. Short term moves and the news will slaughter you.
4. R:R on a per trade basis is irrelevant. You take what the market gives.
5. What gives good R:R ultimately is running winners and cutting losers, it's as simple and as complicated as that.
  • #138
  • Dec 11, 2015 11:33am Dec 11, 2015 11:33am
Nunrgguy,

Any thoughts on relative currency strength or is that too much irrelevant context for what you're doing. (eg. Say strong US dollar strength vs. recent Cad dollar weakness...take only longs on U/C pair.)
  • #139
  • Dec 12, 2015 2:49am Dec 12, 2015 2:49am
if you can use that I see no reason not to. I've never got much mileage from it myself with the correlation tools I've tried but if you're able to use it as an additional tool for directional bias, go for it. I'd look into whether it's any more accurate than using, say, the monthly open too: if price is above to monthly open, for price to remain above the monthly open price has to be closing above the weekly open more often than not.... Monthly ranges etc....unless you see something otherwise at the time.
  • #140
  • Dec 12, 2015 8:03am Dec 12, 2015 8:03am
Quoting nunrgguy
1.Trading h1 your costs will not tend towards 0 2. Price requires time to move and you're not giving it any. 3. Short term moves and the news will slaughter you. 4. R:R on a per trade basis is irrelevant. You take what the market gives. 5. What gives good R:R ultimately is running winners and cutting losers, it's as simple and as complicated as that.


Ok I translated to daily charts and did a back test. I think I still need much more work on this... 1% risk a trade, 175 trades and up 20% (without compounding).... There was a long period of drawdown which I do not understand.. I traded this period again and still a similar result, the daily bars were very choppy through this period.

Basically I am not having a profit target, but letting trades run, and closing trade if there if price retraces more than a specific percentage.n So sometimes my winning trades can be as little as 1 risk to 0.1 reward and other times 1 risk to 5 or 6 reward.

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