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Hyperion's Notebook

  • #181
  • Dec 2, 2015 1:57pm Dec 2, 2015 1:57pm
Phew, I woke up and thought I wasn't going to survive those positions, had a shower and everything changed...Happy days. Still short USD/JPY and USD/CHF. I hope the Swissie break down gets some legs. Target 1 or .99 maybe.

The EUR buying was only in response to lower prices however the USD/CHF selling looked forced, that should really add to Capflow's readings for the session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZCHF.PNG Size: 139 KB
  • #182
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:49am Dec 3, 2015 7:49am
Closed USD/CHF shorts at 1.0053, +211 pts.
Thanks Draghi

Just holding EUR RKO Calls and short USD/JPY now.
  • #183
  • Dec 3, 2015 1:55pm Dec 3, 2015 1:55pm
Just closed USD/JPY shorts at 122.434.

Praying for my EUR Call Knock out at 1.1 to survive today.
  • #184
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:45am Dec 4, 2015 9:45am
Wow, I didn't expect to survive the EUR/USD 1.1000 knock out through NFP. Happy days, closed 1.0700 Call at 1.0930 for +230 points.
Congrats to my Mates on the same trade!
  • #185
  • Dec 4, 2015 3:05pm Dec 4, 2015 3:05pm
well done eh! D closed last night at 869 P & myself left it open - though I changed my mind at the last minute not to close the position at expiry - like 355am.
  • #186
  • Dec 6, 2015 1:14pm Dec 6, 2015 1:14pm
Haha excellent, either way, great result!
  • #187
  • Dec 6, 2015 5:05pm Dec 6, 2015 5:05pm
Just Sold USD/JPY at 123.19.

Capflow is a sell, the only worry is it's been a sell for a while but the pair has remained in a range.....

I hope the USD/JPY will play catch up to the Japanese Banks, chart below, green line = USD/JPY, Black Candle = TOPIX.

Having said that, most of what I read is bullish and I can see why.... I have to go with the signal though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZYEN.PNG Size: 114 KB
  • #188
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:04pm Dec 7, 2015 5:04pm
Bought NZD/USD at .6650

Capflow is buying, decent 150 pt pullback. Nice trade location. RBNZ is a risk.
  • #189
  • Dec 7, 2015 8:07pm Dec 7, 2015 8:07pm
USD/JPY even more high and dry... surely this will be a winner...
TOPIX making new lows....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZYEN.PNG Size: 75 KB
  • #190
  • Dec 7, 2015 8:35pm Dec 7, 2015 8:35pm
Just bought a USD Put, JPY Call, Strike 120, Reverse KO 120, 2 weeks for 16 pips.
Goes with my short spot quite nicely.... I'll be happy is it goes down slowly, and if I get knocked out I'll be happy with my short spot possie.
  • #191
  • Dec 8, 2015 7:19pm Dec 8, 2015 7:19pm
I love this set up in the AUD/USD. 50% retrace, Capflow is a Buy, nice little 4 hrly IB...however I'm long Kiwi already, RBNZ tomorrow, I am betting on a cut (63% priced in) then a dip in the Kiwi which I think will be bought.... I think it will be "sell the rumour, buy the fact"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZAUD.PNG Size: 112 KB
  • #192
  • Dec 8, 2015 8:52pm Dec 8, 2015 8:52pm
Just SOLD USD/CHF at .9924. Capflow is a sell, I love the Daily pattern.

Holding short USD/JPY and Long NZD/USD.... (plus USD/JPY RKO Put)
  • #193
  • Dec 9, 2015 1:43pm Dec 9, 2015 1:43pm
Closed Half short USD/JPY at 121.15 = + 205 pts

Running other half in case my 120 Knock outs get touched.

Holding short USD/CHF and Long Kiwi although Kiwi may be a problem child... 20 mins there will be tantrums around RBNZ, I still think they cut and the knee jerk dump will be bought back up....
  • #194
  • Dec 9, 2015 2:02pm Dec 9, 2015 2:02pm
LOL, RBNZ Cut, kiwi dipped, then rallied 100 pts... last at 6710
  • #195
  • Dec 9, 2015 2:25pm Dec 9, 2015 2:25pm
Closed Kiwi longs at .6753 = + 102 pts.
  • #196
  • Dec 9, 2015 2:41pm Dec 9, 2015 2:41pm
Can't resist... close other half of USD/JPY short at 121.36 = +184 pts

Just short USD/CHF now....
  • #197
  • Dec 9, 2015 2:56pm Dec 9, 2015 2:56pm
The Capflow experiment is doing well. Real money up to date record below not counting Option trades.
Attached Image
  • #198
  • Dec 10, 2015 1:34pm Dec 10, 2015 1:34pm
Closed short USD/CHF just now at .9895 = + 29
Just lost my conviction in the trade. Actually there is no reason to close it but I was hoping for a vertical move - that started but lost momentum.
If I sell the lows as I did to open this, it has to get on with the job pretty quickly for me to stay with it....
  • #199
  • Dec 10, 2015 2:11pm Dec 10, 2015 2:11pm
Sold NZD/USD now at .6750.
Slightly pre-emptive... Capflow is Neutral, about to turn Red?
Really what I want to do is sell EUR/USD but Capflow readings are still very "buy"... I think it goes down though and Capflow will be slow to turn. Can't pre-empt such a big reading though.
  • #200
  • Dec 10, 2015 7:34pm Dec 10, 2015 7:34pm
Sold EUR/USD 1.0931.
This is not in agreement with Capflow however, Daily and DXY looks compelling. I originally thought this pair would trade higher because whilst many shorts were stopped out on ECB night, I think many black box systems stops where higher, more like 1.1080+ and I suspected the EUR might take those out. However, one down night (tonight maybe?) and Capflow goes Red and anyway, it's nice selling EUR right? hehe
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