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Is Forex trading worth it? If so, why?

  • #221
  • Dec 10, 2015 6:34am Dec 10, 2015 6:34am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} They are trying to squeeze pips out of intraday moves in the currency market. Something that doesn't work too well most of the time. Just implement a simple trend-following system and be done. lol
I'd have to agree with this. I've been trading on and off for a few years, and I burned through quite a few accounts trying to squeeze pips and trying to pick reversals. Moving to a simplified momentum based system has really helped me improve my success rate and become profitable in the long run.

At the end of the day I think trading forex is like being a professional card counter (at least if you're primarily a trader focused on technical analysis). The idea is to find situations where the statistics run in your favour, but at the end of the day it is a form of gambling. If you can regularly play the probabilities you will be profitable in the long run, but you have to learn to let go of the losses and not let it affect you
  • #222
  • Dec 10, 2015 6:36am Dec 10, 2015 6:36am
Quoting trader34
I'm a counter trend intraday trader and scalper!
I guess so is everyone else on FF.

I never understood this inclination.
  • #223
  • Dec 10, 2015 6:42am Dec 10, 2015 6:42am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} I guess so is everyone else on FF. I never understood this inclination.

I think the same but reversed!
Trend trading leaves me exposed to more risk for longer than I like, and the gains never added up to me. I don't think trend trading at retail level with retail balances is for me.
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #224
  • Dec 10, 2015 6:52am Dec 10, 2015 6:52am
Quoting trader34
{quote} I think the same but reversed! Trend trading leaves me exposed to more risk for longer than I like, and the gains never added up to me. I don't think trend trading at retail level with retail balances is for me.
If you are good at what you are doing then ride your winner.

What I can't understand are the people who spend many years banging their heads against walls only to end up with a net loss when if they simply traded with the long term trend they at least would have a positive expectancy.
  • #225
  • Dec 10, 2015 6:55am Dec 10, 2015 6:55am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} If you are good at what you are doing then ride your winner. What I can't understand are the people who spend many years banging their heads against walls only to end up with a net loss when if they simply traded with the long term trend they at least would have a positive expectancy.
Sure, But in the same way, given the average time it takes a trader to become successful, probably a better way to make money would be to invest a few thousand in a good fund.
I think we are drawn to Fx for the thrill a lot of the time
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #226
  • Dec 10, 2015 1:28pm Dec 10, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting BandwagonTra
{quote}... The idea is to find situations where the statistics run in your favour, but at the end of the day it is a form of gambling.
That's why 95% lose! People strongly deny the fact, that this is a game of luck.

It starts with the wrong mindset of identifying oneself as trader. We don't trade in forex, as long as we use leverage. We bet on the movement of an instrument. Put down 0.01-0.2% of the current value of it, but we have to cover the difference ones we sell if back. People misunderstand and misuse the leverage. That effect only the cost of the bet. But it causes the same loss or win. Higher leverage provides the benefit of betting more, or leave more money to cover the losses (pushes out margin call). Most people (ab)use the first.

The other one is the (must have) SL. Especially tight ones. That will grind the capital surely. (My experience.) I rather believe in smaller sizes. Wherever the SL was, I add to the position. This doesn't have a meaning to scalpers of course. But I believe scalpers will get scalped. If you hedge that won't work with SL anyways.

I can see only one solution. Use sub-accounts. Before the loss gets extreme bet a smaller size into the other direction.
  • #227
  • Dec 12, 2015 12:46am Dec 12, 2015 12:46am
Quoting laszlo-1
{quote} I can see only one solution. Use sub-accounts. Before the loss gets extreme bet a smaller size into the other direction.
I would have to disagree with this. Hedging your bets in this way can be very difficult to manage, and doesn't help you create an overall strategy for long term profitability.

The focus should be on risk management, but hedging movement by betting against yourself is not a good idea at all.

What people need to do is keep their trades simple and lower their risks by choosing a reasonable entry and stop loss. That is all.
  • #228
  • Dec 13, 2015 1:29pm Dec 13, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting BandwagonTra
{quote} I would have to disagree with this. Hedging your bets in this way can be very difficult to manage, and doesn't help you create an overall strategy for long term profitability. The focus should be on risk management, but hedging movement by betting against yourself is not a good idea at all. What people need to do is keep their trades simple and lower their risks by choosing a reasonable entry and stop loss. That is all.
That was not the essence of my comment. Neither was an advise. (And this tread is not about hedging vs. SL either.)

I only mentioned what I think can work safer for me. (Reminde you the ~95% rate of losers with any method.)

"Proper" risk management requires extensive capital, and one by one is almost the same as buying the instrument, with the difference of a very stupid ideology mixed into it. If it moves into the wrong direction 1-2%, trow your bet and money into the garbage, and start again till you won't have any equity left.

Sort term has completely different rules than long term in this game. In the long run hedging works better, than SL to me. I know that mathematically you can produce the same result, but this is not a math game. You play against the devil, and hedging gives a better chance than SL. That way the original entry is moved away to a more preferable level.
  • #229
  • Dec 13, 2015 2:42pm Dec 13, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting laszlo-1
{quote} I know that mathematically you can produce the same result, but this is not a math game. You play against the devil, and hedging gives a better chance than SL. That way the original entry is moved away to a more preferable level.
I know that I don't speak for everyone, so if that's how you view forex and it helps you get into a good frame of mind to be profitable, then please continue by all means.

When you buy the same instrument, one of the risks is that you always have to sit in at least one losing trade for a long time. Also, while you're sitting in the losing trade you're incurring more and more swap fees, and that eats into your profits a lot. For example - the AUDUSD is sitting at approx. 0.72 right now. It should hit both 0.6 and 1.0 at different points in the future, but going both ways on that pair right now wouldn't be the best use of your capital - you could make much more profit by trading more directionally and you'd incur less swap fees. Even if you decide you've had enough of waiting in 12 months, one of your trades might be in a decent profit, but the other will be in a significant loss and you will have achieved nothing.

I think we are opposites. I view forex as a very mathematical 'game'. Technical analysis is all about mathematically analysing movement to assist in understanding the probabilities of future movement. If you can create a system that mathematically limits your losses to a level less than your average wins and gives you a decent overall win rate, then statistically you should be profitable over the long run as long as you stick to your system. It's all maths to me.
  • #230
  • Dec 13, 2015 4:48pm Dec 13, 2015 4:48pm
Is trading worth it?

Trading is a game much like gambling, some win and some lose. Those that believe in their trading strategy prevail and those that do not lose and go away or keep losing. I personally know two people who trade for a living and I will say neither one of them are members of any trading forum nor do they use a trading system started by another or sell marketing products. Both have shared with me the following which I now take to heart:

You are either your a trader or a salesman, you can't do both. Those that really trade and take it seriously as a business don't care what others are doing they only care about what the market is doing and why. A true trader will only trade their own system and will not rely on a system they have not built themselves. If a person can't trade or is to lazy to put in the time, then those are the ones selling fly-by-night systems. A true trader, no matter how nice he or she is, will never share or sell his system to another. Why? Because it is personal to them, they spent countless hours building and perfecting it and only that person truly understands it. Give it or sell it to someone else, it will probably not work because it was not built for them and their interpretation of the markets etc.

When I ask about Demoing for a long period I am told, NO and here is why;

Demo is meant so the individual can get the feeling of how that platform works and how do get in and out of trades etc. It is not meant to build a system to see if it will work in the REAL world. The only way to see if a system works or fails is to put in the REAL world. Nobody uses money management as they truly would if it was REAL money, so why waste time in demo except for learning the basics.

When I asked how long to trade or pack it in, I was told this;

Only each person and their personal financial position can answer that. However, if you have put in the hard work and sleepless hours with nothing more to show then empty accounts, especially after a 5 year period, then trading is probably not for you. If it's a hobby and you are dealing with money that won't be missed in the future then fine dabble away, but don't fool yourself into thinking your going to quit your job and trade full time.

That is my two cents based on what I have learned from two people that actually trade and pay their bills from trading. They don't have 15 cars and own private jets, they make a real living, not something imagined or seen on TV. They have nice homes, seem to do as they please, but like most self employed people have to budget for when they might encounter losing trades, which they do all the time.

I was also told you don't have to sit in front of the computer all day, pick a time frame that works best for you and your family, build your strategy around that and stick to it. If you don't like waking up at 3am then don't, pick a time you enjoy and can honestly stick with for the unforeseeable future. You wouldn't go to work from 3am to 3pm and say you love it, so why do it trading?

So is trading worth it? Only each person on here can honestly answer that, because what is worth it to me may not be worth it to someone else.
  • #231
  • Dec 13, 2015 5:22pm Dec 13, 2015 5:22pm
Quoting BandwagonTra
{quote} Also, while you're sitting in the losing trade you're incurring more and more swap fees, and that eats into your profits a lot. For example - the AUDUSD is sitting at approx. 0.72 right now. It should hit both 0.6 and 1.0 at different points in the future, but going both ways on that pair right now wouldn't be the best use of your capital - you could make much more profit by trading more directionally and you'd incur less swap fees.
It can be true, or not. I know only my story, where SL was used against me. Lost $30, 2 weeks later it had been in $600 profit.

Defining the game as mathematical mislead me. Ones I started to see it as ideological gamble my mindset changed. As soon I enter a bet, the devil wants to take it. His best tool is SL. The retail traders, who claim success all started to avoid SL after they got burned all the time.

Hedging gives a weapon in the hand against the forces. But it is for those who realized this is a long time game. Move the bet away. Your example if a hedge pair with -$100 from 0.72 goes to 0.6 and it gets opened by closing the short at that point the "massive" loss remained -$100.
SL is the weapon the devil gives to commit suicide.

Your comment about this matter is present Million times from the slathered ships. Good students of the 95%.
  • #232
  • Dec 13, 2015 6:56pm Dec 13, 2015 6:56pm
Quoting cgforex
Is trading worth it? Trading is a game much like gambling, some win and some lose. Those that believe in their trading strategy prevail and those that do not lose and go away or keep losing. I personally know two people who trade for a living and I will say neither one of them are members of any trading forum nor do they use a trading system started by another or sell marketing products. Both have shared with me the following which I now take to heart: You are either your a trader or a salesman, you can't do both. Those that really trade and take...
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #233
  • Dec 13, 2015 7:33pm Dec 13, 2015 7:33pm
Some has hidden the capital, other revealed.
A live account with 100-1000 usd is close to a Demo account.
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If you make it for a living and need 1k usd to live and you make 100% yearly you need a 20k initial to earn 20k and pay taxes and have the 1k / month.

No so many made 100% and could keep it in 2015
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #234
  • Dec 13, 2015 11:02pm Dec 13, 2015 11:02pm
Quoting matheszabi
Some has hidden the capital, other revealed. A live account with 100-1000 usd is close to a Demo account. {image} If you make it for a living and need 1k usd to live and you make 100% yearly you need a 20k initial to earn 20k and pay taxes and have the 1k / month. No so many made 100% and could keep it in 2015

I have to agree, however I think to truly make trading a full-time endeavor one needs to invest more than 20K and have at least 6 months of savings set aside to pay for day-to-day bills. Like any business plan you have to have $XXX amount of capital to build your infrastructure (fund account, by good computer and monitors, etc.) and have money to live on and pay the basics while getting off the ground and start crawling. No one can expect a new business, especially trading, to pay the bills the first month out. Many business owners say they lived off almost nothing the first year or longer before they started seeing any return. Trading is much worse, so those willing to eat top roman and beans will have a better shot at making it than those who are not willing to sacrifice a few things for long term success. Just my opinion.
  • #235
  • Dec 14, 2015 12:50am Dec 14, 2015 12:50am
My advice to anyone do not trade more than 1 forex pair at any given time. It is not worth trading every instruments that moves in fx market is not worth your life. Experience pays in long term & I learnt my in a bitter way
DO NOT PM ME FOR MY METHOD OR ANYTHING PLEASE, I WOULDN'T RESPOND
  • #236
  • Dec 25, 2015 12:09pm Dec 25, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
So many good things have been said here to help people on there journey of thinking in a different way. Now lets talk a bit about why 95% of people lose in trading. What are the biggest mistakes that are made? Why do only 5% of traders profit? What needs to change and how can this number grow?
How do you know that 95% of people are losing in trading?
What if 100% of people are losing?
  • #237
  • Dec 25, 2015 12:41pm Dec 25, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
Why do I trade? Is it to be rich? Do I trade as a hobby? Do I love it? do I hate it? These questions I've asked myself now for over 11 years. Forex trading has been an expensive venture for me. Back in my first 2 years of trading I lost $30k. I almost went bankrupt because I was naive and greedy. I now have been profitable for over 15 months. Is forex trading harmful? I've seen a countless amount of people lose everything and more trading. Why do we put ourselves threw all of this just for a chance at the profitable 5% club? What are your dreams...
Hi Cubbybgood,

I am going to make it simple and short. To me, trading is one of the most powerful, most fulfilling dream I can possibly have that allows me to do what I am passionate about and love to do every day while having the life and lifestyle that I desire. I know 95% trader are losing and only 5% trader are winning. I want to be one of the 5% trader who is winning. Well that is trading to me in simplest and shortest term.

Love and respect,

TE
  • #238
  • Dec 27, 2015 9:04am Dec 27, 2015 9:04am
As someone who trades for a living, I'd have to say that forex trading is definitely worth it. Just remember a few things:

1. Trading is 95% mental. If your head's not right, you will fail 100% of the time, no matter how great your system is.
2. Pick one pair and trade it. Period. You don't need to worry about looking at 30 different pairs to see what's going on.
3. Don't get stressed. That's another huge one for me. I think one of the reasons why I'm successful is that I'm laid back. I don't care if my trade wins or loses, because I know over time, statistically, i will come out ahead as long as I keep doing the same boring thing, over and over.
4. Don't over think your trades. If the markets going up, buy. If it's going down, sell...and YES, it really is that simple
5. Don't try to pick tops and bottoms, it's not worth it. If the market starts to slow down, great, get out of the trade.
6. Although trading may be considered gambling, I believe that traders who are successful take CALCULATED risks. They know that they have a better than average chance of winning based on their particular trading plan. The only game I play when I go to a casino is blackjack. Why, because I win 80% of the time I go. I wouldn't say I'm a great blackjack player, but I have a system that I use every single time I go, and never alter it.

They say that the harder you hold onto something, the faster it slips away because you are afraid of losing it. You cannot trade from a place of fear. I believe that is why most people don't succeed in trading forex. They are trying to hold onto their money too tightly and before you know it, it's all gone. What you think about comes to pass. If you are sitting there, thinking to yourself "Don't go against me, don't go against me", guess what's going to happen? IT'S GOING TO GO AGAINST YOU !!! Some of my best trades I've taken are trades that I literally forgot about. I got into a trade the other day in the morning, someone called, I got interrupted somehow, and later that afternoon I remembered the trade and pulled it up on my phone to see that I was positive 106 pips and promptly closed it. I don't need to get every last pip out of my trades, I take what the market give me and I'm happy. I can make one to two trades per month and be perfectly content and quite profitable...

Trade less, make more.
  • #239
  • Dec 28, 2015 3:55am Dec 28, 2015 3:55am
For me trading has definitely been worth it. I have made some profits, learned new things, met new, interesting, different people. I admit I have had troubles along the way, but I just take these troubles as part of the learning process.
  • #240
  • Dec 30, 2015 12:20pm Dec 30, 2015 12:20pm
Quoting Nlc78
. fibs, stochastics, long term imas, macd, rsi, momentum, etc etc are all useless. If you are using these free lagging useless indicators dont trade. Start again look for another way.
Ahem. Fibs useless? Lagging indicator? Nope, learn the difference between an indicator and a tool.

I trade pure price action and use fibs heavily, but I would never criticize another who uses indicators. There are many ways to make it work. It's detrimental being so blinkered.
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