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  • #138,021
  • Dec 9, 2015 12:07pm Dec 9, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting USD-Bear
shorting USOil again @ 38.70
wow, that went fast collected @ 36.95
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,022
  • Dec 9, 2015 12:23pm Dec 9, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting sisse
@ IMARICH1......and we rolled 1.083x... surprise?...I hope not ... A rather bullish close in the rest of the week ... not much to do in the euro same levels, same plays , same all.... V. scary close in OIL. A very mild wind can trigger one of the most important moves we have witness across the board since Lehman collapse ... Light couple of weeks across the board so without any further surprises in OIL we are set for a rather dull and soft technical week across the board until the FED close the year before the Holiday season. sisse
...and I will take that 1.100x. A bit of a hesitant leg at the start but played as expected. Clearing all in Euro from NFP leg and getting pay pretty much everywhere across thr board ...best day in a while here with market in perfect synch.No much to do at these levels but wait in the Euro and manage the remaining positions across the board...sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,023
  • Dec 9, 2015 12:25pm Dec 9, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and I will take that. A bit if a hesitant leg at the start but played as expected. Clearing all in Euro from NFP leg and getting pay pretty much everywhere across thr board ...best day in a while here market in perfect synch.No much to do at these levels but wait in the Euro and manage the remaining positions across the board...sisse
1.107xxx ..
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,024
  • Dec 9, 2015 1:05pm Dec 9, 2015 1:05pm
Let the ridiculously long countdown to liftoff begin, ala Dr. Evil.....I have to wonder if the markets have not baked in the 25bps from the Dec FOMC, since many moons ago....the bigger story being deepening oil rout and more & more jitters about junk and high yield credit? Anyway, I like to see shit move, fingers crossed for something persistent - a big vol spike to close the year would make me so happy...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,025
  • Edited 5:13pm Dec 9, 2015 4:25pm | Edited 5:13pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Welcome to the club ... ------ -------- Second update in outlook after the double ECB/NFP combo. For the European close changing short term outlook in European Equites (DAX) from NEUTRAL to SELL. Active day with more key updates coming for the energies close ... sisse
Hi Sisse,
I don't understand this.
From what I can understand, your views on Dollar are with hikes this month, which will depreciate Euro (which is what I think your speculation on Euro). Therefore, DAX outlook is supposed to be "buy", as you explained before:
Quoting sisse
{quote}
Second there are some basic general principles in Macroeconomics that usually serve as base theoretical correlations for analysis:

--> If interest rates are low, people/investors don't want to hold cash in the bank but rather put it in stocks to get better returns. While the opposite is also valid, when interest rates are very high people/investors prefer to put in cash to get a decent return without having the risk of investing in equities.

Only when you are clear on those concepts you can define some very basic correlations between a currency pair and equities indexes:

--> The potential of Negative rates + more QE (As per the last ECB) makes expectation of interest rates VERY VERY LOW making people dump cash (euro in this case) and jump to equities (buy stocks --> therefore --> Dax for example). Meaning euro/usd goes down (euro going down so simple maths) and DAX going up ...
Is this change in your outlook a result of last ECB conference flop, or is it technical?
Thanks, Andrew
  • #138,026
  • Dec 9, 2015 9:40pm Dec 9, 2015 9:40pm
how many pips drop is expected in euro if fed rate hike happens next week... Every suggestion is welcomed .....

Just curious what traders think
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,027
  • Dec 9, 2015 10:24pm Dec 9, 2015 10:24pm
Quoting primejarvis
how many pips drop is expected in euro if fed rate hike happens next week... Every suggestion is welcomed ..... Just curious what traders think
I'm expecting it go up 100 pips then down 100 pips then it will choose a direction on where to go.
Around 500 pips.
  • #138,028
  • Edited 7:20am Dec 10, 2015 3:06am | Edited 7:20am
A follow up... as posted earlier - 97,15 DXY almost reached (chart 1) + 1,1020 EU reached already exactly (chart 2) - those are approx corresponing lvls with high probability to be the lows of the correction + we have divergencies on privous low (DXY - bullish div.)/ top (EU - bearish div.) and the one we forming now.

Whats next - I expect DXY to test 97,15 very soon and most probably to hold and form some kind of ending formation - SHS - chart 3 = suggestion how it could evolve
=)
That will correspond to EU retesting the 1,1020 lvl with possible overshoots forming double top or SHS too - chart 4.

Hmm if this was to happen we would get a falling star formation on W.

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  • #138,029
  • Dec 10, 2015 3:42am Dec 10, 2015 3:42am
Gold indicated 1064 as min bear target. Eventually 1042 should be tested after which strong bullishness could occur again.

U/J wants 124 - major decision area for next few hundred pips to the either side

E/U showing intentions for 1.0770/40 where it will decide to attack the highs or to proceed lower..
69
  • #138,030
  • Dec 10, 2015 5:06am Dec 10, 2015 5:06am
...and I will take that 1.100x. A bit of a hesitant leg at the start but played as expected. Clearing all in Euro from NFP leg and getting pay pretty much everywhere across thr board ...best day in a while here with market in perfect synch.No much to do at these levels but wait in the Euro and manage the remaining positions across the board...sisse

Congrats Sis,
Mate you deserve all your rewards, the guidance you have given us all.
let it fill your soul.
Much appreciated
  • #138,031
  • Dec 10, 2015 6:08am Dec 10, 2015 6:08am
Quoting chester123
A follow up... as posted earlier - 97,15 DXY almost reached (chart 1) + 1,1020 EU reached already exactly (chart 2) - those are approx corresponing lvls with high probability to be the lows of the correction + we have divergencies on privous low (DXY - bullish div.)/ top (EU - bearish div.) and the one we forming now. Whats next - I expect DXY to test 97,15 very soon and most probably to hold and form some kind of ending formation - SHS - chart 3. =) That will correspond to EU retesting the 1,1020 lvl with possible overshoots forming double top...
You know you can use that indie to redo the descriptions of all the fib levels so it is possible to distinguish between the different fibs and their levels better.

All you have to do is change 'fib in play' in the 'mydesc' field in indie to to something more descriptive (like 'ECB disappoints' for example ) and it will rename all the levels automatically.
  • #138,032
  • Dec 10, 2015 6:28am Dec 10, 2015 6:28am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} You know you can use that indie to redo the descriptions of all the fib levels so it is possible to distinguish between the different fibs and their levels better. All you have to do is change 'fib in play' in the 'mydesc' field in indie to to something more descriptive (like 'ECB disappoints' for example ) and it will rename all the levels automatically.
oh yes, I was just too lazy to do it. was planning to keep doing that if I have more than 2 fibbs on one chart but Ive done it finally its much better - and definitelly better to have it named if I wanna post it here! so thanks for the comment
  • #138,033
  • Dec 10, 2015 8:03am Dec 10, 2015 8:03am
Quoting Likerty
U/J wants 124 - major decision area ..
121.30's is important for further advance, inability to maintain the ground here opens 120.70 and 120.20's
69
  • #138,034
  • Dec 10, 2015 8:32am Dec 10, 2015 8:32am
Quoting ws121
{quote} Hi Sisse, I don't understand this. From what I can understand, your views on Dollar are with hikes this month, which will depreciate Euro ...
Yes.....
Quote
Therefore, DAX outlook is supposed to be "buy", as you explained before:

Why? The short term picture in a nutshell:

--> ECB flop = No more QE which its a big BUMMER for the bastards trying to fleece the pig.
--> FED rate hike pretty much guarantee next week = US equites on retrace will obviously carry the whole world

There is nothing else in between for the next 2/3 weeks ...Why should equities rally beyond the current range until then?

Quoting The Fool
....I have to wonder if the markets have not baked in the 25bps from the Dec FOMC, since many moons ago....the bigger story being deepening oil rout and more & more jitters about junk and high yield credit?
Indeed. IMO we pretty much covered the range for the 25/50bps in the summer with the preemtive SEP hike leg (via China mumbojumbo). We wont open much further than the Aug lows during first hikes reaction alone .

However, what markets haven't 'baked' yet is living in a world without free money and 0 interest rates and that will take time and a few more hikes.

As usual when blind greed has taken over markets, bastards get used to easy money in equites...whatever you bought since QE and 0 interest rates has gone up so even the lamest investor made money but next year is the usual 'natural selection' and survival of the fittest' time... and those who ignore the new conditions will drawn rather quickly ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,035
  • Dec 10, 2015 10:18am Dec 10, 2015 10:18am
Important update with Europe going home...early alerts triggered!!! for as early as today US afternoon session this time coming from the US. S&P losing 2062.xx will unlock imminent break down to 1987.xx in US equites for the hikes play starting as early as tomorrow inflation numbers and it will 100% sure carry the rest of the board worldwide.

OIL also coughing at these levels and a tiny push from US equities will be more than enough to make it trip again (and this time there is nothing but air below ...). GOLD is also set to start the final RMT exhaustion leg below $1000...

Finally in the EURO, actively tracking the roll today. Losing 1.097x will pretty much set the HIGH of this month early on the month as expected but more importantly holding for tomorrow news/ W close will unlock the RTM leg play and beyond ....

Lots of trade management here and actively looking for positions in the EURO starting today ....

For those looking for loading and/or reloading we are entering in the traditional CHOOSE your POISON time ... so GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,036
  • Dec 10, 2015 10:22am Dec 10, 2015 10:22am
Quoting sisse
so GL all sisse
Thanks for the heads up. Had a nice trip from S&P 2080 to 2065/2040. Watching it closely.
  • #138,037
  • Dec 10, 2015 10:23am Dec 10, 2015 10:23am
Quoting sisse
Important update with Europe going home...early alerts triggered!!! for as early as today US afternoon session this time coming from the US. S&P losing 2062.xx will unlock imminent great down to 1987.xx in US equites for the hikes play starting as early as tomorrow inflation numbers and it will 100% sure carry the board worldwide. OIL also coughing at these levels and a US equities tiny push will be more than enough to make it trip again (and this time there is nothing but air below ...). GOLD is also set to start the final RMT exhaustion leg....
A weekly close below 1.0845 will make the scenario much clearer .... What do u think
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,038
  • Dec 10, 2015 11:52am Dec 10, 2015 11:52am
Quoting sisse
Important update with Europe going home...
Load up on the popcorn and tequila for next week amigo, FOMC & Dec OpEx, the end of the week gonna be da bomb.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,039
  • Dec 10, 2015 12:05pm Dec 10, 2015 12:05pm
Speaking about EURUSD, will low liquidity be an issue at the fed decision next week or is it too early? I mean with the holiday period coming etc..., haven't a lot of people unwound their positions to stay away from the low liquidity in december? This should produce large spikes / tails, whatever the direction, is that right?

Imagine the fed wouldn't hike, could 1.24 be possible or is that too far fetched as an initial shockwave (let's say up to 12 hours after the announcement)? I mean it IS 1400~1600 pips away! Yet this news would of course be a super bomb + low liquidity... who knows? The reason I mention this number, is because gator mentioned this number as well (being a distant, but valid target). I also value gator's insights so I'm curious what other people think in these circumstances.

If they DO hike, I imagine the (initial, let's say up to 12 hours after decision) move to the downside wouldn't be that huge, as a lot of it might have been calculated in by now.
  • #138,040
  • Edited 12:52pm Dec 10, 2015 12:42pm | Edited 12:52pm
Quoting sisse
Important update with Europe going home...early alerts triggered!!! for as early as today US afternoon session this time coming from the US. S&P losing 2062.xx will unlock imminent break down to 1987.xx in US equites for the hikes play
hi Sisse if equities break down ... will you please answer some of my questions
will others like Dax , nikkei , etc ... break down too ?
if Dax break down = EU up (it's working at least right now) ?
if Nikkei Break down = UJ down(~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~) ?
over all may pull USDX down ... ?
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