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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,001
  • Dec 7, 2015 1:53pm Dec 7, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting IMARICH1
....It appears we lost the .0830 during most of the London session; however, they did recover to .085x before final close (roll)despite the Low at .0795. Im still holding my Short at .08xx as I was waiting for .0760 before another upward thrust if PA shows...
oh la la not again mate .... you keep tracking levels on the wrong frame .... 1.0830x is for the short term swing, isn't it?...

Look. Try something different to see if something clicks. Delete all the intraday charts from your workspace (honestly not even a peak at anything below) and try to evaluate the short term swing levels we are dicussing with daily to see if things change and get clearer in your perspective (or maybe not).... try it and lets talk and see how things go in the next few weeks ....

Quoting The Fool
{quote} add the dimension of the junk/high yield bond market bubble, already hissing - crashing oil pushes more & more over leveraged oil-boom public companies over the edge, then the defaults wave, knock-on effects in equity markets,...... could be a perfect storm coming in slow motion.....
For now I am not really looking beyond Oil for the panic leg. Only a sustained, break down (a few months/a Quarter) trading below $40 will have a structural impact across the board but definitively is something to TRACK very closely as it has the potential in become a major cluster fuck if things get out of control...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,002
  • Dec 7, 2015 1:58pm Dec 7, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Its is no man land. Only some vey very very PRO and LARGE oil investors will step in and do something at these levels (I personally wouldnt try to outguess them for a pullback...we are in panic mode). For the actual flows and based on experience only, we are going to hold 37.7x for today as short term speculators will squeeze the hell out of it in the next few sessions while the mainstream media headlines catch up with the last massive move....If we take 39.1x, the panic leg down is set to be in sharp short-lived 'spasm' legs in a...
thanks sisse, you might be wright there, so happy I could correct last Fridays debacle and end up with a very handsome profit though, let's say my psychology needed the banking.
Further I have been astonished by the power of some parties last few months, to hold up a fundamental necessary move as we see after OPEC.
Cannot see the depth of their pockets but I wouldn't, even if it its short lived, exclude some other tries to save the current level.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,003
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:05pm Dec 7, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, ... {quote} Because losing 1.083x will imply (TAwise) that 1.097x may have been too strong and the move is already in the way out without allowing anybody else to jump on board ...meaning I would have to re-evaluate the short term map to try to realign with the flows.... I hope it helps ... sisse
Hi Imarich1, as sisse tells you to zoom it out. I posted 2 charts today how I expect the intraday flows to continue in the wave 2. On the short term swing level - days, weeks = this is one of my longer term charts with the levels we have been discussing. If I watch it on daily - it gives me fine perspective on where we are more broadly and what are the levels to watch for short term plays - definitely not worth zooming closer than H4. Maybe it helps as an ilustration.

P.S.: cannot garantee that all the lvls are the ones sisse posted - sometimes I add something and its a mess but it should fit mostly - can dig in the history of the thread to find the short/mid term "map" he posted!
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  • #138,004
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:13pm Dec 7, 2015 3:13pm
Nice map chester.
  • #138,005
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:19pm Dec 7, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hi Imarich1, as sisse tells you to zoom it out. I posted 2 charts today how I expect the intraday flows to continue in the wave 2. On the short term swing level - days, weeks = this is one of my longer term charts with the levels we have been discussing. If I watch it on daily - it gives me fine perspective on where we are more broadly and what are the levels to watch for short term plays - definitely not worth zooming closer than H4. Maybe it helps as an ilustration. P.S.: cannot garantee that all the lvls are the ones sisse posted - sometimes...
...get rid of the Sunday bar ... it will make your chart clearer ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,006
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:10pm Dec 7, 2015 4:10pm
@ IMARICH1......and we rolled 1.083x... surprise?...I hope not ... A rather bullish close in the rest of the week ... not much to do in the euro same levels, same plays , same all....

V. scary close in OIL. A very mild wind can trigger one of the most important moves we have witness across the board since Lehman collapse ... Light couple of weeks across the board so without any further surprises in OIL we are set for a rather dull and soft technical week across the board until the FED close the year before the Holiday season.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,007
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:25pm Dec 7, 2015 4:25pm
V. scary close in OIL. A very mild wind can trigger one of the most important moves we have witness across the board since Lehman collapse ... Light couple of weeks across the board so without any further surprises in OIL we are set for a rather dull and soft technical week across the board until the FED close the year before the Holiday season. sisse[/quote]

Hi sisse , are we still expecting a push to 33.xx then on to 25.xx . I would of thought a slight retrace tomorrow before it continues its journey no ?
  • #138,008
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:47pm Dec 7, 2015 5:47pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Depending on 4 hour close, I don't have much left that says we avoid a new low. 38.80 was a target, so a pull back is expected sometime after....then norm....then much lower I'll update when I get home to charts in a few hours the last ditch trade I was trading is now invalid on the H1....H4 next, D soon after
Technically, with a pullback here, we should see 46.89 normally then 34.90

I lied about the last chance trade, I was looking at the wrong chart.....that trade is actually @ 38.42

Paid the price for that mistake today.
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  • #138,009
  • Edited 2:09am Dec 8, 2015 1:44am | Edited 2:09am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...get rid of the Sunday bar ... it will make your chart clearer .... sisse
On account of that I have one technical question.... I have XTB broker who has his server in central europe = +1 hour to London time, which means I get that 1 hour Sunday bar + my H4 bars close one our earlier than London. Which basically means my D chart is a little bit distorted + I cannot use H4 chart. And Im getting pissed off day by day. I tried to find a way to shift it in MT4 settings but I did not find anything.

Any clue how to fix it? Is the only way to change broker? Which one would u guys suggest (some who is not gonna disapper with the money ) - some where u can trade commodities, indicies etc. too? And generally what is the referential time worldwide everyone watches - London time? I mean we all have to see the same H4 candles so there should be some consensus, right? Ehm, consensus which my broker does not give a... Even the D candles - if my close at central Europe midnight, its wrong too. :/
  • #138,010
  • Dec 8, 2015 2:16am Dec 8, 2015 2:16am
looking for a short entry in BUND around 160 again.
Contracts switched from December to March, last move 156.88 => 158.48 due to price difference.

BUND D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,011
  • Dec 8, 2015 2:25am Dec 8, 2015 2:25am
Any one know why EURUSD is so strong right now ?

News ?
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,012
  • Edited 5:10am Dec 8, 2015 4:57am | Edited 5:10am
...that was it for the session .... nothing new across the board and we are pretty much set until inflation numbers which is the last round of key reports in the US for the year ...Got what I needed in all fronts so same levels, same trades, same all until Friday ....

---- ------ ---- ---- ----- ---- ------ ---- ---- ----- ---- ------ ---- ---- -----

Quoting nutts
... are we still expecting a push to 33.xx then on to 25.xx . I would of thought a slight retrace tomorrow before it continues its journey no ?
???????

...the levels we are talking here are for a few months? Oil wont just plummet +/-50% in 24 hours .... I am not sure if you realise the difference in size and scope between a currency pair and other instruments ...

Just for comparing size and scope, such a move will be equal[in size] to a move down 0.87xx or 1.30xx in the euro...do you really think is realistic to assume (with or without an intraday retrace today) that this kind of range will remotely be in play in Oil for this week?....

Quoting chester123
{quote} On account of that I have one technical question.... I have XTB broker who has his server in central europe = +1 hour to London time, which means I get that 1 hour Sunday bar + my H4 bars close one our earlier than London. Which basically means my D chart is a little bit distorted + I cannot use H4 chart. And Im getting pissed off day by day. I tried to find a way to shift it in MT4 settings but I did not find anything. Any clue how to fix it? Is the only way to change broker? Which one would u guys suggest (some who is not gonna...
--> Well if you broker cannot plot a proper daily chart I will just drop their charting platform by default. I am sure 90% of the charting platforms now show a proper daily chart. If they don't it means they are using a piss poor old coded recycle cheap, 'white label' charting platform.

--> On MT4, if you have been around these boards you know my opinion about it. Although, some posters here swear by it, IMO it's a very poor CHARTING platform which has hijacked retail in a monopoly by the main broker and bucket shops. I can't comment on details about retail pseudo algos and automate trading systems (as I don't use it but even if I would I wouldn't even remotely consider MT4 for that) but as charting platform is pathetic to say the least.

--> H4 is a good gauge for intraday moves but I wouldn't use it alone for triggers or trading decisions, etc. Any alignment will give you the same perspective. However if you are using it for trading triggers that depends on OHLC it's not a good idea to use it as it's not a common standardise TF.

From my experience when I used to track H4 a lot more than today:

H4 aligned to Europe +1 is not a bad alignment (its probably the best) for reference if you are trading the Euro as you are aligned with Frankfurt (and most of the EuroZone) and also aligned with the CME Globex open in Futures.

NY aligned which is the default is ok too but it will be noisy very noisy until NY opens which is not necessarily a good thing.

London aligned is a little off mark but it will show you +/- the same flows,

GMT+2 etc ...you will be looking at random bars.... so it will be as good or as bad as tracking any custom time chart...


I hope it helps.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,013
  • Dec 8, 2015 5:26am Dec 8, 2015 5:26am
{quote} ??????? ...the levels we are talking here are for a few months? Oil wont just plummet +/-50% in 24 hours .... I am not sure if you realise the difference in size and scope between a currency pair and other instruments ... Just for comparing size and scope, such a move will be equal[in size] to a move down 0.87xx or 1.30xx in the euro...do you really think is realistic to assume (with or without an intraday retrace today) that this kind of range will remotely be in play in Oil for this week?.... {quote}

Hi Sisse

Thanks for the feed back and your concern regarding my realisation of size movements and scope of currency pairs versus commodities. I read you posts daily and have always know the above. I was just quoting your target figures from a previous post in the day and was asking if you still had them as a target in the future.

But anyway thanks for feed back, concern and the slap

Tristan
  • #138,014
  • Dec 8, 2015 5:29am Dec 8, 2015 5:29am
Quoting sisse
...that was it for the session .... nothing new across the board and we are pretty much set until inflation numbers which is the last round of key reports in the US for the year ...Got what I needed in all fronts so same levels, same trades, same all until Friday .... ---- ------ ---- ---- ----- ---- ------ ---- ---- ----- ---- ------ ---- ---- ----- {quote} ??????? ...the levels we are talking here are for a few months? Oil wont just plummet +/-50% in 24 hours .... I am not sure if you realise the difference in size and scope between a currency...
Interesting info, so maybe the London+1 on H4 is not as useless as I said. But I understand itīs not best to use its OHLC as triggers. Just gotta fix the daily chart!!

About the platform - I started as complete beginner on xStation - It did not take me long to figure out its desperate to work with it. And MT4 compared to the first one really was a relief! The think I like most is that it allows you quite good work with all Fibb instruments + you can set the eliptical argument. However, that should be natural thing on all platforms. So if u have any different one to recomend to try/u use I would be more than glad to do it. Except for the Fibbs MT4 is also pain.
  • #138,015
  • Dec 8, 2015 8:17am Dec 8, 2015 8:17am
Quoting hathor
{quote} I have mixed view on midterm: Daily sell signal with a H4 buy signal. So a retrace (or fall?) is in sight, but personally I would like to sell higher (H4 might helps), so the plan is the following:Small buy again (price should not fall beyond 1.07, most trapped shorts are under that level), and would like to sell over 1.1xxxx.
a small short term sell here (over yesterday's top)...time will tell.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,016
  • Edited 8:51am Dec 8, 2015 8:27am | Edited 8:51am
sisse,

I can see I am missing the mark again. When you said on Friday that you were going to have to re-evaluate the move if we close under .083x, I took that as W close and not Daily close on Monday unless I am mixing that up too as you wrote yesterday:

"@ IMARICH1......and we rolled 1.083x... surprise?...I hope not ... A rather bullish close in the rest of the week ... not much to do in the euro same levels, same plays , same all...."


I zoomed out to Monthly, Weekly and Day. I looked for support and resistance levels. I don't see .0836 unless I look at Day candle on Friday and the LOW is .0836. But, I think here in lies the problem for me. I believe somehow I am to look for High, Low and Closes on certain TF candles. FLows is something else I struggle with as well. I was trained by a trader to look at Day chart and watch the 20MA. Price will come back to it if it gets to far away from it. My 20 MA on Day chart is at .0720 which is getting closer to .0760 that is another level. My Plan has been to target this area and we got close yesterday during London early session at .0795 but PA went North again. I am looking at closing my SHORT at .0760 and position from there on how PA responds.

Right now I am looking at just Day, Weekly and Monthly but trying to see what I am really to be focused on in regards to Flow. I appreciate chester123 trying to show me a visual as I learn best this way. Visual learner.

oh la la not again mate .... you keep tracking levels on the wrong frame .... 1.0830x is for the short term swing, isn't it?...

Look. Try something different to see if something clicks. Delete all the intraday charts from your workspace (honestly not even a peak at anything below) and try to evaluate the short term swing levels we are dicussing with daily to see if things change and get clearer in your perspective (or maybe not).... try it and lets talk and see how things go in the next few weeks ....


Please don't give up on me. I may ask dumb questions or appear I am not getting it but it may all click at once. Just not there yet obviously! Thanks for your time!
  • #138,017
  • Dec 8, 2015 9:38am Dec 8, 2015 9:38am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, I can see I am missing the mark again. When you said on Friday that you were going to have to re-evaluate the move if we close under .083x, I took that as W close and not Daily close on Monday unless I am mixing that up too as you wrote yesterday: "@ IMARICH1......and we rolled 1.083x... surprise?...I hope not ... A rather bullish close in the rest of the week ... not much to do in the euro same levels, same plays , same all...." I zoomed out to Monthly, Weekly and Day. I looked for support and resistance levels. I don't see .0836 unless...
Maybe one tip if I may, have a look at Sisse's charts in the archive. I looked at all the charts he posted on this forum and things became a lot clearer for me. Also the terminology he uses became much more clear. Just have a look at them and I am certain it will help you further
  • #138,018
  • Dec 9, 2015 12:49am Dec 9, 2015 12:49am
Quoting hathor
{quote} a small short term sell here (over yesterday's top)...time will tell.
another small short here, lets see.
(would like to buy at ~ 1.085xx)
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,019
  • Dec 9, 2015 4:40am Dec 9, 2015 4:40am
E/U acting nicely as expected - as well as DXY. 97,125 point on DXY to watch (based on Fibbs) as the correction of the post-OCT-ECB wave 1 continues. That lvl roughly corresponds with the 1,1030x area I posted earlier (based on Fibbs too). Potential level for termination of the correction.
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  • #138,020
  • Dec 9, 2015 9:40am Dec 9, 2015 9:40am
shorting USOil again @ 38.70
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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