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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,961
  • Edited 2:54pm Dec 4, 2015 1:58pm | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting sisse
@chester123 & @IMARICH1 OK there is a few question out there and its Friday evening before the closing session so lets address some of the points. Before we get in details the first major confusion is that you are talking about different plays here... The play related to the NFP trade was/is the flow for the actual news play. No more no less... {quote} Those trades are limited to the exact extend of that small map no more no less, unless it's clearly detailed it (like yesterday " all micro levels raised ...1.061x to 1.097x etc etc). Despite of what...
Ok so on more theoretical ground before discussing the EU play right now.

Ive learnt from you its essential to clearly differentiate:

Short term swing (days, weeks; e.g. last EU swing down)
vs.
Medium term swing (weeks, months; e.g. swing from october ECB to parity and beyond)
vs.
Long term swing (months, years; e.g. swing from 1,4 EU to parity and beyond)

These swings of price fold into each other = i.e. short into mid and mid into long. And each of the level has its own price levels to watch on its level, right?

Than we have the "actual flows" - is it synonymum for intraday play? Meaning that they apply only extremely short time, i.e. intraday?

They are raised when we have some major news - thats why u say "all micro levels raised"? E.g. it happened with last ECB = which was trigger of short term swing up; not happened here with NFP as there would have to be some crazy under/evershoot to become a game changer, i.e. to completely get out of the order of actual flows, right?

So if we dont get a game chnger with all levels raised the actual flows are happening in the context of the recent short term leg (and mid and long) and do not change the final outcome of the leg, right?

But now the problem is.... Im trying to be a short term swing trader. Not intraday. And many times when I wrote something about the price you told me Im just looking at the mess, i.e. looking at the intraday noise while trying to catch the short term swing and many times you point you its usless to look at the noise when catching the short term swing ---- beginers see the oveshoots and jump in thinking its breakout instead of fading the overshoots!!!

But this is the problem (one of milions here ): how do you idetify that the short term swing ends and the intraday flows creating overshoots over the target level of the short term swing are the ones to fade? I mean this may be stupid question as I fundamentally ask how to succesfully trade! But what are your criterion(s) to enter into a beginning of a short term swing? I bet you are not looking at the intraday noise.

Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #137,962
  • Dec 4, 2015 2:11pm Dec 4, 2015 2:11pm
Well written chester123! I am understanding it just the way you are which is why I am mixing up my flows and trades. Great summary and questions. If your summary is wrong; then, I am clueless.

I am still in a SHORT from .0800 and missing alot of the PA because I don't want to over-leverage my account as I am close and wanting to be able to absorb a move to 1.10 if we don;t see .0760/30 first.

sisse,

Thanks so much for sharing your knowledge and helping us fix and learn. Your time is invaluable and I appreciate you devoting it here for us that wish to learn. Have a great weekend. I have learned alot this week and understand things more clearer!!!!
  • #137,963
  • Dec 4, 2015 2:23pm Dec 4, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting IMARICH1
.... Trailing time and fill or kill for the rest of the session. Only losing 1.083x for the W roll will make me revaluate the short term outlook in the Euro ...." did you mean "there is no more room for anything BUT Longs ...
Means there is no point leaving any more room for the NFP longs [only those ones !!!] to play out (if you traded the NFP play, if you didn't just ignore it). So trailing time ...means its time to trail the stops to current market range levels as there is no point in leaving more room (risk) cause the news knee jerk reaction has been already settled ...

Quote
as I am confused why you would re-evaluate Short term outlook if .0830 was lost. Short term, which I know means Days or weeks, is still SELL. Why would losing .0830 make you re-evaluate as I would think that affirms the view? ...

Because losing 1.083x will imply (TAwise) that 1.097x may have been too strong and the move is already in the way out without allowing anybody else to jump on board ...meaning i would have to revaluate the short term map to try to realign with the flows....

I hope it helps ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,964
  • Edited 3:14pm Dec 4, 2015 2:44pm | Edited 3:14pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I really like the way you see markets. I agree with most of your views. A few points/ questions i get from your post from the general to the specific. Let me give you my 2 cents about. Timing in general. If you have recognised both technically and fundamentally the next swing you want to trade (which obvisuly doesn't !!! necessarily mean you are right) the first step to map your trade is define your final horizon deadline. For example using your comments assuming you want to position for the FED hikes leg in the euro/dollar. So: First step...
Awesome Sisse, the timing has to be other extremelly important problem!!

So to see if I understand it right.... lets try it on the FED hikes swing.

Lets say we have some fundamental and technical preconditions, which are not basically in question right now, i.e. I know the hikes have bullish impact given the flow of dollars and I have identified technical and fundamental levels to which I project the swing ---- lets say --- 0,80xxx EU final targer, some levels in between now and 0,80xxx.

Now the timing - FED hikes will have an bullish impact basically at the beginning of the tightening cycle - approximately 2-3 hikes will be strongly bullish before the price finds another equlibrium (I expect that based on our previous conversations). So I would project the euro to reach lets say 0,8xxx by the middle of the cycle/after 3 hikes = Q3 2016- the question is where I found the level but lets leave it aside for now. The short term hike cycle leg will therefore have 1,2,3 points on its trajectory of FED meetings with diminishing impact - 1 the strongest and the other smaller and smaller = I expect the leg to be slowly loosing momentum as reaching the target.

Now the timing - I know that next FED is in 14 days approx. - from now on I expect a bullish run up (maybe not so intense as its highly priced in), which is going to be influenced by mini-events as u put it.

Match the current levels with your trading plan (TA or whatever you use for actual trading) with you map and direction. Meaning ask yourself in the next event in between if the levels in play DURING that mini event match your EXPECTATION and direction?

And now what do you mean by this? So you would say that I can jump into a short term swing in case the mini-event and its flows privede me the opportunity to go with my short term swing direction?

So if I can apply it to even today - we are still in short term swing trigered by the ECB, which is swing corrective to swing one of the mid term leg to parity. The swing has not ended yet and the NFP today was an mini-event with its micro flows and if there was inline/slight undershoot the flows would materialize as a part of the short term swing to finish him to its final target somewhere around 1,1000, which would be level I project as an end of the swing - so it would have been possible to jump it just to ride that ending of the swing.

Ok, this is getting somewhat complex and less is sometimes more so hopefully you will be able to understand what I mean and to identify where the problems are in my understanding!!

And Im of course joining Imarich1 as ur job here is unbelievable and these conversations are crazy interesting. The complexity is pretty stunning. Thank you

CORRECTION: that 0,8xxx level E/U is absolutely exagerated. Letīs say 1,02xx-1,000 as a taget of the short term FED hike cycle swing.
  • #137,965
  • Edited 3:14pm Dec 4, 2015 3:02pm | Edited 3:14pm
Quoting chester123
...: how do you identify ... swing are the ones to fade? I mean this may be stupid question as I fundamentally ask how to succesfully trade! But what are your criterion(s) to enter into a beginning of a short term swing?
. Indeed you are asking for the Holy Grail....!!!

You are a very smart guy so you know there is not going to be a straight answer (there isn't one in TRADING!!! despite the tools a trader use) in a perfect flawless recipe that only the secret society of SISSE know it , etc etc etc etc...there is not such a thing !!!

Trading for me is as much as science as its an art so if you are looking for quant and algorithmic information I may not be able to help you much beyond my general knowledge in quant and market tools.

I can only give you some hints and share experiences but beyond that its a v. long business as its is a personal and, rather painful most of the time, journey of self-discovery.

My second tip today. In trading start from the macro and move to the micro. Both in TA and FA. Sounds obvious but most around these boards have a 'collage' of million of random micro ideas flowing around so they usually CANT see the forest for the trees !!!

--> So if you want to short term swing trading your entry point for everything is ????? ...

  1. The mid term !!!! yes. The mid term. You want to step down a bit from the trees (your trees!!!) and see the forest first...
  2. You want to map your direction there instead of having to do it every second day ...
  3. You want to align with the few major mid term swings so instead of seeing hundred of unrelated short term swings you have a map, a route, a reference that make easier your decision making....
  4. You want to be able to filter out the major FA in the mid term so the hundred of short term reports have context...
  5. Your aim is to outsmart the short term traders outguessing them (only them !!!! not anybody else in the food chain) by understanding what the traders/ money above you in the food chain are tracking...

... we'll continue later but this is the definitively my best advice as entry point ...Whatever TF you want to trade ...start from the one above for everything before even peaking at a chart in your TF...

I hope it helps..

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,966
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:11pm Dec 4, 2015 8:11pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well on US equites more than ever after today's NFP. We are in STRONG MID TERM OUTLOOK NEUTRAL as we have been discussing since Oct. The macro numbers are fantastic to say the least. The stronger the numbers the milder and quicker the short term rate hike impact will be... The quicker the FED get rid of the issue and start normalising the faster we can fly high very high ... On the impact of oil. I wouldn't be that sure. There is some serious money getting caught wrong in the long side at these levels and fundamentals in the very very short...
Hello sisse:

I am curious what are you looking at exactly that tells you the below is true ?

"We are aligning for a 'massacre' some big fishes could get caught awfully wrong if we break down. After today OPEC (and in the last few weeks) they are defending $40.xx handle with everything they got. I haven't seen such a struggle between major forces in OIL in a very long long long time"

Also in general the correlation between oil and the stock market seems pretty random just looking at the chart of the S&P 500 versus the USO ETF (West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil).

Although logically you would expect lower oil prices to be bullish for the stock market because consumers have more money to spend.

Borg

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC#{%22showArea%22:false,%22showLine%22:false,%22showOhlc%22:true,%22lineType%22:%22bar%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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May the Forex be with you.
  • #137,967
  • Dec 5, 2015 11:47am Dec 5, 2015 11:47am
call your end-year markets, if you dare:

S&P move up Friday was scary - it looks like we will see new ath's and I have to bet >2,150 before Christmas. Even 2,200 is in the cards. SnP 2,200 would still barely touch a 5% gain for the index for 2015. I think most of the upmove will be intact by FOMC week. We'll see how equity markets react to the FOMC in the thin weeks to close out the year.

Fiber will not be able to hold its gains on the ECB disappointment, will slide and resume steep downtrend after Fed hikes on 12/16. I will say fiber ends the year at $1.03 +/-.

Oil will fall, wti will finish the year under $36.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,968
  • Dec 5, 2015 1:09pm Dec 5, 2015 1:09pm
Crude 38.89 december

EU 1.0460 december

Gold 872.38 bounce (doubtful before 2016) maybe 1026 bounce before 2016

Silver 11.97 bounce (same as gold) maybe 12.94 before 2016

2016/2017

WW3

Gold and Silver major trend reversal

EU crash

Oil short circuit

Gun/ammo/magazine shortage in America

My calls
  • #137,969
  • Dec 5, 2015 3:13pm Dec 5, 2015 3:13pm
Quoting Pharm0r
My calls
good job, Nostradamus.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,970
  • Dec 5, 2015 3:57pm Dec 5, 2015 3:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} good job, Nostradamus.
To be continued

Oh yeah, and Trump wins the election.
  • #137,971
  • Dec 5, 2015 4:13pm Dec 5, 2015 4:13pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} To be continued Oh yeah, and Trump wins the election.
God forbid ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #137,972
  • Dec 5, 2015 4:52pm Dec 5, 2015 4:52pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Oh yeah, and Trump wins the election.
well, that explains the WW3 part....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,973
  • Dec 5, 2015 6:06pm Dec 5, 2015 6:06pm
He'll win

He won when Paris was attacked
  • #137,974
  • Dec 5, 2015 8:22pm Dec 5, 2015 8:22pm
Quoting Pharm0r
He'll win He won when Paris was attacked
lol, death by a thousand sound bites......it'll be fun to watch, though
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,975
  • Dec 5, 2015 8:35pm Dec 5, 2015 8:35pm
lol

will be a wild 4 years for sure
  • #137,976
  • Dec 6, 2015 9:23am Dec 6, 2015 9:23am
Quoting sisse
... in a perfect flawless recipe that only the secret society of SISSE know it , etc etc etc etc...there is not such a thing
Rule one of the Secret society of Sisse, you do not talk about the secret society of Sisse.
  • #137,977
  • Edited 4:40am Dec 7, 2015 3:10am | Edited 4:40am
Thank you for the comments Sisse, very interesting and helpfull. Ive always thought that "trading the bigger picture" - or at least having it all mapped - is the way to go!! Its just pain to be patient (when trading short term/mid term swings) and stick to the rules - but its much easier if one follows your posts cuz its free of emotions and the "method" is pretty strict and the outcome quite clear.

In any case: on the ground of all we have so far discussed on E/U.

Waiting for opp to enter short - to ride short/mid term to "parity":

Chart 1:
FED event is still not so close so I think it will evolve in more complex top of the short term swing from last ECB. The ECB bomb was too big to just continue straight down.
Chart 2:
intraday there is support on 61,8% (1,0811) of ECB upswing - reached just now. 1,0760 is mid of the same = max intraday extension. From here I expect we revisit the 1,094x area as there is the 50% of OCT-DEC downswing - acted as resistence after ECB - with max intraday ext 1.103x, which is the 61,8% pf OCT-DEC downswing. So far that would be the point to track for short.

Any comments welcomed
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  • #137,978
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:33am Dec 7, 2015 3:33am
Quoting hathor
{quote} In other words: Under 1.10000 the lower I can buy, the better...so I'm buying the dips on tiny time frames.
I have mixed view on midterm: Daily sell signal with a H4 buy signal. So a retrace (or fall?) is in sight, but personally I would like to sell higher (H4 might helps), so the plan is the following:Small buy again (price should not fall beyond 1.07, most trapped shorts are under that level), and would like to sell over 1.1xxxx.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,979
  • Dec 7, 2015 6:43am Dec 7, 2015 6:43am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Means there is no point leaving any more room for the NFP longs [only those ones !!!] to play out (if you traded the NFP play, if you didn't just ignore it). So trailing time ...means its time to trail the stops to current market range levels as there is no point in leaving more room (risk) cause the news knee jerk reaction has been already settled ... {quote} Because losing 1.083x will imply (TAwise) that 1.097x may have been too strong and the move is already in the way out without allowing anybody else to jump on board ...meaning i would...
Did it lost 1.083x?
  • #137,980
  • Dec 7, 2015 7:00am Dec 7, 2015 7:00am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Here is little early holiday present: a fib editing tool that I made that might help you. How you would use it to get that type of line is 1) Drop a fib on the chart. 2) Right-click on the fib, and in the Common tab of the properties screen, change the fib name to "yy" (or anything you want really but the indie is currently set to look for xx). 2) add the indicator to the chart. 3) Set the fibSet to 1 as you add the indicator. (Actually it's set to that as the default). 4) Input any text you want in the levels in the mydesc field as you...
Just saw this. You are a goddess
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