Disliked@chester123 & @IMARICH1 OK there is a few question out there and its Friday evening before the closing session so lets address some of the points. Before we get in details the first major confusion is that you are talking about different plays here... The play related to the NFP trade was/is the flow for the actual news play. No more no less... {quote} Those trades are limited to the exact extend of that small map no more no less, unless it's clearly detailed it (like yesterday " all micro levels raised ...1.061x to 1.097x etc etc). Despite of what...Ignored
Ive learnt from you its essential to clearly differentiate:
Short term swing (days, weeks; e.g. last EU swing down)
vs.
Medium term swing (weeks, months; e.g. swing from october ECB to parity and beyond)
vs.
Long term swing (months, years; e.g. swing from 1,4 EU to parity and beyond)
These swings of price fold into each other = i.e. short into mid and mid into long. And each of the level has its own price levels to watch on its level, right?
Than we have the "actual flows" - is it synonymum for intraday play? Meaning that they apply only extremely short time, i.e. intraday?
They are raised when we have some major news - thats why u say "all micro levels raised"? E.g. it happened with last ECB = which was trigger of short term swing up; not happened here with NFP as there would have to be some crazy under/evershoot to become a game changer, i.e. to completely get out of the order of actual flows, right?
So if we dont get a game chnger with all levels raised the actual flows are happening in the context of the recent short term leg (and mid and long) and do not change the final outcome of the leg, right?
But now the problem is.... Im trying to be a short term swing trader. Not intraday. And many times when I wrote something about the price you told me Im just looking at the mess, i.e. looking at the intraday noise while trying to catch the short term swing and many times you point you its usless to look at the noise when catching the short term swing ---- beginers see the oveshoots and jump in thinking its breakout instead of fading the overshoots!!!
But this is the problem (one of milions here ): how do you idetify that the short term swing ends and the intraday flows creating overshoots over the target level of the short term swing are the ones to fade? I mean this may be stupid question as I fundamentally ask how to succesfully trade! But what are your criterion(s) to enter into a beginning of a short term swing? I bet you are not looking at the intraday noise.
Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!