Mike's EURUSD Trading Room

Hello there!

I have a thread in trading systems where I post on a lot of different topics, mostly to do with trader psychology and self-improvement. I've recently started posting daily analysis of the EURUSD along the vein of the Online Trading Academy supply and demand strategy but with a heavy spin of my own applied. If you want to find out more about my strategy head on over to the other thread here.

To keep things a bit more split up I'll post my analysis of the EURUSD on this thread separately. What I'd really love to see is a number of like-minded people getting into some interesting discussion on different scenarios that may or may not play out during that day's session. Depending on how much interest this attracts, I'll try to be quite active in the 2 hours leading up to the London session open for any kind of discussion about developing a plan for that day.

If this kind of thing sounds interesting to you, please don't hesitate to get involved! The collective minds of many are far more powerful than just one.

I'll kick off proceedings with this video analysis. I hope you find it useful



Cheers!
Mike

i want to know eur/usd more up or down >....? because i have 3 sell entry ..

Hey there bdonline,

I had a brief look at your trading explorer and I'll be entirely honest with you... it's somewhat unlikely in my opinion that you will get out of those positions for breakeven, let alone a profit. I'm actually in a large short position myself right now from 1.0975 (see below chart), however my targets are fairly conservative... I've also just seen a bullish breakout on the 5 minute chart which could in fact signal a bit more of a surge leading up to the NFP release tonight. It's very much up in the air right now. If you're willing to risk the volatility, NFP might come at least in part to your rescue (there might be a large down-swing during which you can jump out at a smaller loss). The problem with this of course is that it might swing upwards as well, adding to your losses. I'd probably want to decide that prior to the news release in your shoes, as setting a stop during NFP often doesn't work out due to the whipsaw we often see.

The most important thing to remember in the current situation is that the price has been range bound for some time now and the very high impact news from last night allowed much of the pent up pressure in the market to flow. Yes, from a technical perspective there may be short entries possible but with the market the way it is right now it's hard to say what will happen.

I think you might need to look at using stop losses in your trading. We as humans are wired to absolutely detest losing. It's so easy to hold on to a losing position under the belief that it will eventually turn around. It isn't actually so much to do with making the money but more the fact that closing the position for a loss would mean you admit that you were wrong. This is really hard to do!

A follow up to the above - this is just my opinion... I could be entirely wrong and you might get out of the positions at a great profit (which would be totally fine by me because I'm in short too!), the point overall is that I don't think you want to find yourself in this situation again. I'd take some time to work out how to avoid it in future.

Good luck mate

Mike

Looking at order flow, banks are selling into strength. Not that they are always right, but it might mean some positioning for NFP

Here's a few of my thoughts for tonight's session. Last night was an absolute cracker, once the price really got moving I decided to steer well clear but it was a great show to watch. Looking forward to some interesting conversation!



TLDW: I'm of the opinion the price is going to either range or trend conservatively downwards in the lead-up to the NFP release later on. I've done quite well this week and I'm leaning towards not trading post-NFP, for the me the last opportunity of the week is fading last night's move up until the beginning of the NY session.

Cheers!
Mike

Definitely looks like the bears are in control at the moment despite that small break of the 5M channel. What kind of DOM software are you using to check order flow? cTrader has some basic functionality but nothing particularly enlightening; especially since the forex market tends to move very quickly.



Mike

Another week, another opportunity!

Market looks too thin to enter right now. I want to wait until we see the EUR hit either of the yellow circles in the below 15M chart before considering any entry. The overall picture hasn't really changed much since last week in my opinion. From a fundamental perspective, we do need to incorporate the OPEC issues; this could have an effect on the EURUSD, albeit not as much as other currencies such as the CAD.





Mondays can be a bit difficult to trade and I have a feeling today may be one of those. My personal outlook for the week is probably a slow downward trend, there is a substantial risk however that some of the institutional bears will be either more cautious or even unwilling to sell leading up to the Fed's decision later this month. My main technical reasoning for a short bias is the fact that we are still capped below the daily chart's previous upward trending channel (see below). A break above this level would invalidate that bias and force me to re-evaluate.



Mike

Late entry today, been busy unfortunately! I was still able to trade from my phone, based on the top of that 15M / 1HR bear channel from yesterday.

Honestly I love markets after big events like last week, I find them considerably easier than normal to trade. I took a large long position at the 61.8 fibonacci level (1.08054) on the chart below which I've covered for a profit, and am now taking short trades from the top of the channel. There were so many factors in the long position's trade for last night, including: 1.08 level proximity, 1H price action confirmation, fresh (untouched) 1H demand zone, bottom of a channel and fibonacci confluence.

I'm currently a EUR bear, and will be until price re-enters the demand zone around 1.0825, unless a break above the current channel occurs.

Mike

It's been a profitable European session for me tonight! Still trading the tops and bottoms of price channels, for me that is the most profitable way of trading the conditions we're currently experiencing. The charts below all paint pretty much the same picture as yesterday: wait for a good price, throw in some confluence from another strategy (eg. fibonacci, price action conf etc) and you'll do well this week. I'm up +7.05% this week already. Strike while the iron is hot, if you're in sync with the markets then go for it!

I threw in a pic of one of this afternoon's trades for laughs... watch how the price loosely sits on the yellow lines - using that in confluence with the green channel can be a great basis for a trade.

Mike

nice analysis and explanations, tks Mike

Cheers Julian!

I'm currently making a play at the London open, anticipating a surge upwards in price early in the session. I could be quite wrong, but my risk to reward is really good on this trade so I'm not worried.

I'll be watching the price action closely, my target is the 1.1025 level but if it doesn't look like we'll make it that high I'll look to close at one of the interim trendlines.

Mike

Well, my London open trade both worked and failed at the same time; I just picked the wrong round level to take profit. If I'd taken my profits at 1.10 instead of 1.1025 things would've been good. Unfortunately looking at the scenario that way is a results-oriented way of thinking. I'm not into doing that, what's important is to look at what works in the long run, ie using the concept of expected value of a given decision. I still feel like I had a positive EV on that trade, and so will not write it off as a mistake. Instead, I could consider protecting my equity better by using a breakeven SL once price had moved to 1.10.

I'm now in long from the base of the hourly trend channel with approximately 2:1 risk. Target is just below the previous high of 1.09811.

Mike

Welcome to another new week!

Expect a lot of uncertainty in the coming days... the Fed Rate decision is all but confirmed to be a 25 basis point rise, but the market's reaction might not be so predictable

We're still in a range-bound market sitting just below the previous daily channel. The price is going to follow one of the following three scenarios:

1. Upside break-out
2. Consolidation
3. Downside retracement

Determining which of these is currently occurring before trading at any point this week will be critical to success, no matter which trading system or strategy you are using.

Hourly chart: looks like the price is on the slow retreat to the bottom of our over-arching channel, however there is a lot of support at 1.0925. If that level is broken we could see a retreat to 1.09 or even 1.0875 before a retracement upwards.



The 15M shows a really nice long setup at 1.0925. I'll be looking to enter long if we get to this price.



Mike

Here's a sneaky short scalp I just took along the way. Trade was based on the 15-minute price action sitting just below the channel's underside. Saw a 5-minute reversal candle and pulled that trigger for a quick 12.3 pips.

Mike

Price has hit another new high in the current uptrend. In spite of this, I'm seeing selling activity almost immediately after each new high is reached. The price isn't managing to force its way much higher each time it challenges the top, and almost always reverses a reasonable amount. This gives the implication that we're still in a period of consolidation, however an upside breakout is still on the cards.

I'm still going to be looking for entries on both sides of the markets, using my 15-minute trend line array as a guide. There's actually a possible long entry forming on the 15-minute right now...

Mike

There's only one more day until the Fed decision!

Last night we saw a switcheroo from what was looking like continued consolidation to now a potential downside retracement. There isn't much time left until the Fed's decision on interest rates however so realistically I'm not convinced it's going to matter. Having said that, price action from now leading up to tomorrow may give some subtle clues on the market's potential reaction tomorrow morning (of course the data comes out at 5am here in Australia!).

I'm presently in short using the 5-minute channel array with an ADX signal as confluence.

If you jump over to my other thread - Variant Perspective Trading, you'll see an annotated chart that more clearly explains my current entry strategy for those interested. It also shows some nice examples from yesterday's NY session.

Mike

The previous EURUSD short I posted didn't work out unfortunately. I'm in short again from the top of the channel you can see in the below chart. Target is 15 pips again, let's see if we can get there.

As of time of writing we've just ticked over the 10 pip profit mark, so I'm moving the SL to breakeven.

Mike

Here we are, post interest rate hike! The reaction wasn't really all that huge, however it did knock out the underside of the previous 1-hour channel. That downside retracement could very well be on the cards now...

The EUR has been trending consistently down throughout the Asian session today. Honestly I don't see too many opportunities save perhaps for the 5-minute channel that formed this morning. I may not take any trades tonight unless something forms later on. Sometimes it is best to remain patient and wait for good setups.

Mike

An opportunity has actually presented itself in a 1-minute channel. I'm in with a SL set to 5 pips, TP to 15. Taken on confluence with the 1.0875 round level in addition to an ADX signal.

Mike