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  • #137,981
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:06am Dec 7, 2015 5:06am
huge fight going on in Oil, very fast up and downs continuously no decision yet
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,982
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:09am Dec 7, 2015 5:09am
Quoting USD-Bear
huge fight going on in Oil, very fast up and downs continuously no decision yet
UCAD has made a new yearly high.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #137,983
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:12am Dec 7, 2015 5:12am
Quoting USD-Bear
huge fight going on in Oil, very fast up and downs continuously no decision yet
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post8605899
  • #137,984
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:14am Dec 7, 2015 5:14am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post8605899
actually waiting for 37.80 as first major defense
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,985
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:49am Dec 7, 2015 5:49am
it looks like buyers giving up @ 38,75
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,986
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:49am Dec 7, 2015 5:49am
We'll see soon

That mofu is last chance before new low (by mofu method)....which we all know is bad bad.....the targets are seldom missed.
  • #137,987
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:54am Dec 7, 2015 5:54am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} actually waiting for 37.80 as first major defense
agree with first line of defence
  • #137,988
  • Dec 7, 2015 7:06am Dec 7, 2015 7:06am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Just saw this. You are a goddess
You're welcome! (and also to the other folks who said thanks. Didn't want to crowd up the thread too much.)
  • #137,989
  • Dec 7, 2015 7:23am Dec 7, 2015 7:23am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} actually waiting for 37.80 as first major defense
Yes, 37,7

If broken, good chance for 32/33, ugly
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #137,990
  • Dec 7, 2015 9:58am Dec 7, 2015 9:58am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} actually waiting for 37.80 as first major defense
out, might regret it though, but it's in the pocket this time
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,991
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:02am Dec 7, 2015 10:02am
As well pointed out by the previous posters. The only thing to track today was/is OIL. The rest of the board without surprises and behaving as expected since the double ECB/NFP combo.

Quoting sisse
....--> Oil also closing very bearish in imminent break down for the final mid term exhaustion leg that can extend as low as $26.xx. Holding the break 42.1x [check] for the massive QE/NFP/Inventories/OPEC meeting nuclear combo will unlock the leg with sharp momentum only after taking $39.1x.[check]

Quoting sisse
Current mid term Map before FED announcement for the rest of the year

______$25.6(Steel Support)______$39.03(strong)[check]______$43.6(flip)[check]______$49.9(strong)______$60.25(Soft <<Locked>>)
Clean, simple and super yummy day in OIL and as widely expected 39.03 tested and triggered momentum. ALL EYES in OIL as on the brink. We are officially in major PANIC ALERTS !!! triggered for today's energies close. A panic leg WILL send MASSIVE shockwaves across the board....

Here, trailing time for he exhaustion/panic leg targets after clearing $39.1x. Losing 39.0x this week will unlock LOTS of air with a very very very soft reference on the low's of the $33.xx handle before the super fundamental and strong TA support @ $26.xx that will probably cap any attempt to move lower and form the mid and long term floor.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,992
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:05am Dec 7, 2015 10:05am
Quoting Borg
{quote} I am curious what are you looking at exactly that tells you the below is true ? "We are aligning for a 'massacre' some big fishes could get caught awfully wrong if we break down. After today OPEC (and in the last few weeks) they are defending $40.xx handle with everything they got. I haven't seen such a struggle between major forces in OIL in a very long long long time"
Since you ask ...perfect timing to reply to your post ...

Well markets spoke by itself before I replied to your post. In general, losing 39.1x on W will unlock panic both in TA terms (self-explanatory ...just open your mid or long term chart no need to go in details) and FA terms as OPEC officially killed any chances of short term bottom, ECB announced they are missing all inflation targets via commodities (especially OIL) and more importantly REAL money was sitting on the last test $40.xx back in the summer.

If market crack 39.1x (right now as we speak), REAL money (Major OIL funds are sitting in there since the summer)they will be caught horribly on the wrong side. When that happens (in any market) the sweep is fast and furious (either in a panic or a manic move) and in the case of OIL with inventories through the rough and without a single sane buyer sitting on the demand side at these levels...

Quote
Also in general the correlation between oil and the stock market seems pretty random ...

The basic correlation between Oil and equities is via the economic health/growth of the country in mention. For example if there are strong signal of economic boom (especially in some sectors) its a good indicator that the demand for OIL will increase with obviously will push prices up.

However, for trading and charting purposes, OIL is a leading underlying in the markets and has it own very complex interaction and interrelations. The price of OIL is primarily set (like most of commodities except GOLD) via Supply and Demand factors with a strong geopolitical and risk factors.

Those factors are very very complex to analyse and understand and I don't think you can't (neither you SHOULD) just plot a comparative chart between OIL and stock markets as you will be comparing apples with oranges.

In the case of currencies for these board, I would suggest checking the correlation between OIL and DOLLAR that will make a lot more sense for a linear analysis and it will give you a lot of hints about how the flows work across the board.

I hope it helps

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,993
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:12am Dec 7, 2015 10:12am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} out, might regret it though, but it's in the pocket this time
whoooowe that got ugly quick
  • #137,994
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:13am Dec 7, 2015 10:13am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} whoooowe that got ugly quick
- 6.30 % !!! and counting .....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,995
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:18am Dec 7, 2015 10:18am
oil has an equation betwen "oil cash addict" suppliers and "raw pump price". anything else is epmty
  • #137,996
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:20am Dec 7, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} whoooowe that got ugly quick
after the huge fight mentioned earlier it didn't become as a surprise to me.
Actually still bit pissed of by getting stopped on OPEC-day at my earlier short from 41.5 to 42 on the pip.
A pull back towards 39 would be nice to engage again, but hearing sisse talking it becomes more unlikely every second.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,997
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:28am Dec 7, 2015 10:28am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} after the huge fight mentioned earlier it didn't become as a surprise to me. Actually still bit pissed of by getting stopped on OPEC-day at my earlier short from 41.5 to 42 on the pip. A pull back towards 39 would be nice to engage again, but hearing sisse talking it becomes more unlikely every second.
Depending on 4 hour close, I don't have much left that says we avoid a new low.

38.80 was a target, so a pull back is expected sometime after....then norm....then much lower

I'll update when I get home to charts in a few hours

the last ditch trade I was trading is now invalid on the H1....H4 next, D soon after
  • #137,998
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:33am Dec 7, 2015 10:33am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} after the huge fight mentioned earlier it didn't become as a surprise to me. Actually still bit pissed of by getting stopped on OPEC-day at my earlier short from 41.5 to 42 on the pip. A pull back towards 39 would be nice to engage again, but hearing sisse talking it becomes more unlikely every second.
Its is no man land. Only some vey very very PRO and LARGE oil investors will step in and do something at these levels (I personally wouldnt try to outguess them for a pullback...we are in panic mode).

For the actual flows and based on experience only, we are going to hold 37.7x for today as short term speculators will squeeze the hell out of it in the next few sessions while the mainstream media headlines catch up with the last massive move....If we take 39.1x, the panic leg down is set to be in sharp short-lived 'spasm' legs in a few sessions rather than a nice ebb and flow waves...

Lets see the reaction on the closing range on US equities first ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,999
  • Dec 7, 2015 11:02am Dec 7, 2015 11:02am
Quoting sisse
The basic correlation between Oil and equities is via the economic health/growth of the country in mention. For example if there are strong signal of economic boom (especially in some sectors) its a good indicator that the demand for OIL will increase with obviously will push prices up. However, for trading and charting purposes, OIL is a leading underlying in the markets and has it own very complex interaction and interrelations.
add the dimension of the junk/high yield bond market bubble, already hissing - crashing oil pushes more & more overleveraged oil-boom public companies over the edge, then the defaults wave, knock-on effects in equity markets,...... could be a perfect storm coming in slow motion.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,000
  • Edited 11:43am Dec 7, 2015 11:21am | Edited 11:43am
sisse,

... {quote} Because losing 1.083x will imply (TAwise) that 1.097x may have been too strong and the move is already in the way out without allowing anybody else to jump on board ...meaning I would have to re-evaluate the short term map to try to realign with the flows.... I hope it helps ... sisse[/quote]

It appears we lost the .0830 during most of the London session; however, they did recover to .0849x before final close (roll)despite the Low at .0795. I'm still holding my Short at .08xx as I was waiting for .0760 before another upward thrust if PA shows that. My question is will you re-evaluate now since we lost this level for the majority of the session or will await to see how NY closes? IN other words, does .097x seem very strong and the move has begun as you say?

Thanks and appreciate all your info on Oil and the economics of it all! I find this all so interesting and wish I understood it like you do. It would help me understand flows as that's an area I lack in understanding but slowly learning just from your posts last week!
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