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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,861
  • Dec 1, 2015 10:47pm Dec 1, 2015 10:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} GOOD, Buddy - you? What you starting that boy out at - $100,000,000?
yup, a hundred million Zimbabwean dollars....

doesnt matter really, whatever I give him, he will try to eat it first....he was knawing on my keyboard yesterday...

hows the option boys been treating ya?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #137,862
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:15pm Dec 1, 2015 11:15pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
whatever I give him, he will try to eat it first....he was knawing on my keyboard yesterday... hows the option boys been treating ya?
adorbs........options da bomb, I am way out on a limb trying to catch a post Dec FOMC ^VIX spike into Jan....if it happens I'll be richer, if not, well, c'est la vie...what about you - getting back on the horse?

Hey, do you have any buds at the Nat'l Bank of Greece? They seem to have misplaced my shares....very perturbed about that....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,863
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:25pm Dec 1, 2015 11:25pm
When a 50 year old man uses the word "adorbs"....

almost as bad as some of the words sisse says
  • #137,864
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:28pm Dec 1, 2015 11:28pm
got what I was looking for, W......bazinga!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,865
  • Dec 2, 2015 12:13am Dec 2, 2015 12:13am
Thanks sisse. Unfortunately my post to you was erased. My computer locked up! It was perhaps one of my insightful ones. Nevertheless, I wanted others to know that I have been around this forex trading ground and want to be transparent to fellow traders.

You understand this market more than I do. You understand from a level I am not able to get too due to my ignorance.

I probably should not have released my trade form .0563 to .0636. It appears you believe I had a good position for the ECB and NFR but bailed to soon. Anyways, I see your swing rate and have positioned for it. I believe you have been saying that PA is going higher for .98.

Yes, I agree it is pointless and stupid to take a position short if I am not in higher. Makes sense.

Appreciate your input. I have not been in this arena for 2 yrs but am trying to understand it more now. I appreciate all your input! Thanks so much!!!!
  • #137,866
  • Edited 5:51am Dec 2, 2015 4:23am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Bought the new low.
At this area again. Bought.

Edit: locked it. If the price comes back, than I'll try to enter lower and lower...good luck mates.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,867
  • Dec 2, 2015 7:42am Dec 2, 2015 7:42am
We keep printing strong US numbers ...only a unexpected slip of mouth from Yellen this afternoon (not expected at all) left before the major movers and shakers starting tomorrow...

After the solid numbers, its fill or kill for those holding or loading soft longs ... micro trailing time for the opening range and pretty much we are ready to rock tomorrow...not much to do here after that.... Expecting a jittery US morning session before market get into comatose mode until tomorrow major reports...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,868
  • Dec 2, 2015 8:16am Dec 2, 2015 8:16am
Quoting IMARICH1
... I probably should not have released my trade form .0563 to .0636. It appears you believe I had a good position for the ECB and NFR but bailed to soon. !
Well the trade was as good or bad as your trading plan you were using for that trade.

--> I just assumed from your post you were aiming for the short term leg 1.056x/ --> 1.076x with max ext to the 1.09xx handle (ext only with proper news aligned otherwise impossible !!!) so if that was the case it was probably not the best to close all when you have a potential 'free' ride ticket. However, if you were just trading a intraday move as I mentioned yesterday, well done that was a flawless trade and its nothing to talk or 'lament' ...IMO wasn't one I would particular trade alone but it was a great trade ...period

--> For your reference, only right now after the latest news, is trailing time (fill or kill) short term as is nothing to wait neither where to hide (the current lows are very feeble and naked) with a massive train at top speed approaching that can clean the lows of the year let alone the micro 1.056x/4x area in no time with the proper trigger tomorrow ....

In simple words if you are preempting a flop ECB with a valid short term technical setup before the news, that was a good opportunity and there is no point risking even a tick more after the news.

As I mentioned before, I wouldnt recommend sweating/trading too much an extreme complex trade when we are in trending mode with potentially all the FA aligned as early as tomorrow .... as you know 'the money' is in the other side and you will have plenty of better opps to ride it ...starting as early as tomorrow ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,869
  • Dec 2, 2015 8:22am Dec 2, 2015 8:22am
Quoting sisse
We keep printing strong US numbers ...only a unexpected slip of mouth from Yellen this afternoon (not expected at all) left before the major movers and shakers starting tomorrow
stars are aligning.....OPEC the wild card, if they come through in a big way to support oil the Santa rally will be greased lightning...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,870
  • Dec 2, 2015 8:25am Dec 2, 2015 8:25am
Shorted AU again...

Only able to squeeze 40 pips out of this bastard on two trips...
  • #137,871
  • Dec 2, 2015 8:28am Dec 2, 2015 8:28am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} stars are aligning.....OPEC the wild card, if they come through in a big way to support oil the Santa rally will be greased lightning...
ECB flop tomorrow (and inline/uneventful NFP) may see SANTA having to come back for Eastern ... .... got 2100.xx --->1978.xx potential early alerts trigger for today's close holding that level for the rate hikes play...tracking closely equities today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,872
  • Dec 2, 2015 8:39am Dec 2, 2015 8:39am
sisse, do you still think wti has a snowball's chance in hell for $26....? I'd have to bet the ECB (more punch!) and the Fed (slightly less punch!) are done deals now and the biggest wild card in the deck is OPEC......not saying they will come through but oil could swing the markets if they make a big enough move....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,873
  • Dec 2, 2015 8:52am Dec 2, 2015 8:52am
Quoting The Fool
sisse, do you still think wti has a snowball's chance in hell for $26....? I'd have to bet the ECB (more punch!) and the Fed (slightly less punch!) are done deals now and the biggest wild card in the deck is OPEC......not saying they will come through but oil could swing the markets if they make a big enough move....
--> Technically YES !!!. A tiny tick below the lows (in strict sense 39.1x is momentum line to the down side) will unlock exhaustion leg on panic in a super mega fast in and out below $30.xx (max $26.xx).

--> Fundamentally things are a lot more complex now. As you mentioned and I 100% agree OPEC is a MASSIVE tigger. A flop this week will unlock non stop panic feed with FED hikes on sight (while OPEC taking action will trigger a massive spike to the $50.xx handle in a few sessions as market will be caught off guard) .

However things are not that simple anymore, ECB may offset some of the impact via Europe bouncing back with more QE, plus we keep printing SOLID US numbers (mid/long term we are running with the final 'fumes' in the downtrend) and on top RISK on is around the corner via many fronts. An imminent full blown intervention/war on Syria is cooking and almost ready to be served... that alone will have the usual spillover effect on the region and oil prices...

The next 48 hours are massive and the cherry on top is OPEC so we'll keep chatting as reports happen to see how things pan put ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,874
  • Dec 2, 2015 9:08am Dec 2, 2015 9:08am
Sisse, personally speaking, do you go with the view that ECB will increase QE AND that FED will hike at long last? So both EURUSD negative. Or are you somehow convinced of one (or both) to flop?
  • #137,875
  • Edited 10:45am Dec 2, 2015 9:13am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting ExForX
Sisse, personally speaking, do you go with the view that ECB will increase QE AND that FED will hike at long last? So both EURUSD negative. Or are you somehow convinced of one (or both) to flop?
furthermore if u personally under the fundamental situation see the rate cuts and how deep. Cuz there is the discussion about the necessity to cut the rates to enlarge the amount/types of bonds they can buy cuz under the recent limits only QE expansion could mean they would run out of "buyable" instruments - so I would expect both to happen "somehow" Whats ur personal expectation?

btw. seems the poor dollar index is pretty impatient today and cant wait to shoot to sky tomorrow/friday
  • #137,876
  • Dec 2, 2015 10:31am Dec 2, 2015 10:31am
sisse,

Thanks for your diagnosis as it was spot on! You understand my trading style is mixed somewhat. I like to trade more in the day and be out of my trade within the Day. However, I have been trying to understand the complexity of these moves. The Trend is down but I am hearing an undertone that the Train is going North bound first most possibly with the ECB flop (if that is the case). I have a Bought at .0610 and am wishing I had waited seeing today's PA.

But, if i understand you right, you are saying that the news tomorrow could take us down to 1.02 or .98 handle. No where to hide or run is right. However, how are you positioning for this. If there is nothing left to do but wait; then, how to do you profit if one side is wrong? Further, when you refer to the "money is on the other side" do you mean for the BULLS or BEARS? We are in a down trend so I would assume the money is on the BEARS side; but, I am probably wrong. If it is on whose ever side, what does that really mean?

I am holding onto my LONG for now but may not much if we go LOWER and will just wait to after the news settles to trade again. I was using the .0610 as a FLIP point and since we closed above it in every session, I felt it was a good reference point to BUY. Perhaps, I chose the Dark side and not the right one! If you were holding a LONG at .0610 how would you play it? Tight stop, stop below lowest low. Am I on the wrong ship sailing out?

Thanks for all you help. But, you are correct that I am mixing trades and not understanding unless you state intra-day trade like you did in a previous post. That helped. I wanted to close and make profit and then get another position even though it wouldn't be as good as before as I expected at least .0730 to .0970. But, I see without news that was not going to happen. I was assuming you meant TECH that was where it was headed until tomorrow. I was wrong in my understanding.

Thanks for your time. I put this out here to be critiqued or mocked at to become a better trader and help those who have similar questions but are afraid to ask!

All the Best!
  • #137,877
  • Dec 2, 2015 1:03pm Dec 2, 2015 1:03pm
OIL
  • #137,878
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:39pm Dec 2, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting IMARICH1
.... I put this out here to be critiqued or mocked at to become a better trader and help those who have similar questions but are afraid to ask! All the Best!

  1. He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.


Surprise surprise? ...no not really, isn't it? ... no surprises in the Euro and back to ,1.061x for the roll just on time for ECB.

Before I reply some your points let me wrap up the last post first to avoid repeating myself ...

Quoting sisse
...fill or kill for those holding or loading soft longs .. [check] ... Expecting a jittery US morning session before market get into comatose [check]....
As expected 1.056x barely held but held at the end. All cards on the table for tomorrow and we are ready to go across the board ...

Good time for the usual outlook review before the key mover and shakers.

--> Euro last map (from last ECB/Fed combo):

Quoting sisse
No surprises in the Euro with 1.061x finally tested and we pretty much completed the expected range....
Quote
______$1.0161(Soft)[double check]______$1.073x(strong)[triple check]______$1.097(flip)[check]______$1.117x(soft)[check]______$1.135x(strong )______$1.151x(Steel Support <<could be lock today>>)​
--> Current mid term outlook (since last Oct): SELL
--> Current short term outlook until news (since last Monday): SOFT BUY

--> Euro current map (pre ECB/NFP combo):

_____$1.017x (Strong)__[AIR]__$1.046x(13 year lows/ref only/no support)______$1.054x(Soft)______$1.061x(flip)______$1.076x(Soft)______$1.097x(Very Strong)_____...

Plenty of time later for analysing and mapping the next legs across the board before ECB ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,879
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:46pm Dec 2, 2015 3:46pm
thanks Sisse for updates ...
  • #137,880
  • Dec 2, 2015 8:58pm Dec 2, 2015 8:58pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Also tentative over here and waiting for the clearer macro decision areas to come into play next month on DXY (98.40.), (maybe more imminently->DAX (11080.) and obviously 1.073 over here, all with the pullback. If they don't... I'm sure we'll have interesting things to digest on the FA side. Relentless Euro weakness on the back of that strong equity rally. Looks like todays close is going to seal 11080 (value area to sell euro/buy DAX.) with Draghi disappointment being the real risk to that outlook. Obviously need to...
DAX continues to play very smoothly and directly on the pair. Tested to the tick and I bought a free/cheap ticket at the last moment. Gotta watch out that I don't get cleaned out intraday before the news now.

Obviously A high barrier for Draghi to disappoint so he he's going to need to be dovish just to keep the train rolling and use all available options to directly extend these flows.
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