The Really Useless Thread

so by your view is it good or bad for gold over short term and long term?

if fed hikes or not doesn't have any influence on gold prices on the short term imo, later if they hike due to inflation-risks it has, but even then, changes in inflation expectations is the relevant factor influencing gold prices not the hikes.

Sisse (or anyone else of course) more practical question as the fundamentals seems to be quite clear right now as well as the mid and long term direnction on E/U- but how do you plan to preposition for december? if I follow you well you are expecting some short term corection against the last short term leg down. What I see on my first chart - there are textbook divergencies (H1, H4) applying to the last down short term leg - we have not touched the 1.061 - but if it happens I expect it to be quick and the divergencies to hold to still point to a correction in following days.

So: we have leg (short term swing) 1 from 1.147 to 1.061 (dovish ECB, great NFP, hawkish FED) - now there should be leg (short term swing) 2 as a retrace of 1 before strong impulsive wave 3 (ECB cutting/ECB +QE/FED hike in DEC) taking the pair below year-ly lows and close to parity (target not important for now)

But the problem is - there is not enough time (til DEC) for proper development of the swing two, is it? Only 2 weeks till ECB - so bet 61,8 or 50 % retrace of the first swing is absolutely impossible. And once its about to evolve - given the strong fundamental force - it seems its gonna be really "shalow" - maybe just chop till 1.073/or A-B-C to 1.082?

So basically - time and fudnamentals speak against any "stronger" retrace ===)

Therefore its gonna be crazy tricky to catch the "DEC swing" = mid term swing num. 3 of a leg to (under)parity. You know, one case: you wait too long and its gone, second case you burn yourself jumping on board too soon. So thats why Im explicitely asking whats ur opinion cuz once we catch it the reward could be kind of nice

Thank you.

-> I think a fellow trader recovered some of the basic/earlier post (from the internet time machine archive ??? ) a few year ago. Not really sure if he is still around.

-> Sure we can discuss details after trading hours but I am afraid it might become rather long and would probably be easier to just write a book if I try to compress all those ideas (je je je) in a thread...

-> Indeed...

Dont forget that is not only FED Rate hikes but also ECB Rate Cuts and potentially more QE via low inflation.

-> The easy times for Gold are gone. It will be definitely wild because the strong forces in play but now we have contradictory forces clashing making the next couple legs less direct and easy to trade than earlier this year.

-> An extra add on to keep track on top of the monetary policy, we have 'Winds of War' in the air after the attacks in Paris. I am afraid the world is aligning for 2016 to have risk back on the table instead of hikes/rates once we start normalising in DEC and first Q 2016...

->In simple words, we are getting very close to the mid term bottom in Gold very soon...

sisse

Eyes on OIL losing the $40.xx handle today starting with upcoming news.

On the rest of the board pretty much all settle for the FED Minutes play. Euro 1.061x only level to track for the W roll and for today easy map in play for those loaded from the morning or earlier. 1.054x extension for the news play with hawkish conformation to settle the W around 1.061x. To the other side nothing to see with 1.073x holding.

Expecting start of last short term legs across the board until key DEC ECB in the next couple of sessions ...

GL all...

sisse

First. Superb post. One of finest analysis I have read in FF in a long long time. Two thumbs up !!! ...

A few pointers:

1. We are aligning for a shallow pullback. Its obvious in the FA side why, but also technically after the clean sweep of the 1.097x with last NFP (a.k.a FED hikes).
2. As you well point out we don't have much time tis DEC and more importantly we don't have enough important news/reports in between to trigger a deep pullback. However, keep in mind that we have double plays (ECB & FED)in the Euro.
   1. The ECB could have just smartly played with expectations and may decide to stay tight (NO QE / NO rate cuts) allowing the FED to hike rate first in DEC and only make a move in Q1 2016 (which will nicely offset the impact in equities across the world of a FED hike). That will easily unlock a deeper pullback (Technically as per today 1.097x is open and the 1.11xx handle is still marginally open).
   2. ​In simple words, you can gauge the pullback with the ECB pulling the trigger or not

   
   

3. Today minutes will probably confirm the outlook from last FOMC meeting, opening as you well pointed out the last leg before ECB. Failure to hold 1.061x for this week will unlock 'Clean Sweep' in Weeklies ...meaning a 'catch me if you can' trade...
   1. In this worst case scenario we will still have time to map it for the ECB...however the trade will become for 'experienced traders only' and the initial leg management will be a pain in the ass...

Lets see how things start rolling with today reports ...

sisse

I'm sorry I doubted you Santa....

No surprises in the Euro with 1.061x finally tested and we pretty much completed the expected range. 1.061x holding the W close and we have the Low and the High of this month SET and ready for DEC...

______$1.0161(Soft)[check]______$1.073x(strong)[check]______$1.097(flip)[check]______$1.117x(soft)[check]______$1.135x(strong )______$1.151x(marginally open) ...

On the rest of the board nothing new. US Equites flirting to break back up 2060.xx but nothing tradable at these levels until further data and the W close at least in my books.

sisse

[quote=sisse;8598302]{quote} -> I think a fellow trader recovered some of the basic/earlier post (from the internet time machine archive ??? ) a few year ago. Not really sure if he is still around. -> Sure we can discuss details after trading hours but I am afraid it might become rather long and would probably be easier to just write a book if I try to compress all those ideas (je je je) in a thread... {quote}

Thanks for your response.

I extracted some rules from your great posts on the 'Supply and Resistance Trading Simplified' thread. These posts are now more than five years old and was wondering how your approach has changed during that time.

I am really only looking for some pointers, not for a detailed manual.

More like PayTheLimit's statement:....S/R = the close of the bar that has the high or low of the swing in it...

Santa rally train smoking good now, buddy. Shovel in anything that'll burn, next stop spoos 2150. Be plenty time for a 15% drop in Q1 2016. Right now need them books fluffed up. Rate hike? Shit, by now it's all priced in and the markets are counting on it being under the tree. Happy Holidays, mate.

3 trades in, still building
BUND H1:

Thank you for your kind words on my analysis and for great remarks! Its necessary to say that Ive learned 98 % of my knowledge from you

1.061 holding post-meeting minutes intraday - hopefully weekly too - positive sign so far as the short term swing 2 may actually evolve and we dont get the "clean sweep in weeklies" and me as a newbie may get a chance to participate in DEC

Eeee, "last" question Sisse: how did u identify the 1.061 lvl as a potentional short term swing termination point? Usually I discover how you identify the lvls - mostly visible on high TFs but this one is not "seeable" on D, W, M. Nor it is any specific confluence lvl on my Fibs. So thats why I was suprised it worked sooooo perfectly! I think more generally the question is connected with the "ikdenks" question above but this case is particulary interesting.

Thank you

Eu

Next flip level to load short 1.083x .... Hope I am right ?

None talking here?? let me talk atleast..

This is very much interesting guyss!!

Could the Fed Hike the Discount Rate on Monday?

What do you think sisse? Do we see some action packed monday?

Great month for trading keep providing lots of trading opps for every taste. Very good trading environment across the board continued this week but we are starting to run out of steam for the close. Markets are set for comatose week with US on holiday and MEGA month on sight the week after.

Most markets already set highs and and lows for this month so its prolly a good time for a quick overview of how things are going since the last updates.

--> S&P (US equites)

 

1. Perfectly neutral and fantastic zigzags as widely expected since ECB/FED but we are entering the closing range siting in the perfect launching platform for the upcoming moves. I doubt anybody will preempt any further than these area for the ECB play.
2. ECB flop and will see 2014.xx in no time for the FED play to unlock the 'green zone'...

______$1790(Steel Support)______$1970(strong)______$2014(flip) [check]______$2061(soft)[triple check as expected in neutral]______$2100(soft )[triple check as expected in neutral]______<<unsustainable levels>> (danger zone)

--> GOLD

 

1. Clearing 1080.xx early this month paid handsomely and it was definitively the best possible move. Gold 'treading water' since the ECB announcement that 'ruined' the nice ride down. Contradictory forces in play (FED hike + slight Risk on via Paris / ECB QE and cuts) charging its toll. Marginal chance for a preemptive move (break 1080.xx) before ECB but not tradable in my books.
2. ECB cutting rates + QE will delay final leg mid term in GOLD for the FED hikes later in DEC. Mid term bottom on sight for Q1/Q2 2016...

_____$970(Steel Support)______$1080(strong)[check strong as expected]______$1190(flip)[check]______$1240(strong)______$1300(Steal Resistance)

--> OIL

 

1. As discussed in the last few weeks. Oil is entering in super wild area. Expecting sharp shake outs in both sides. Strong macroeconomic forces from all fronts in play clashing in Oil. This is the only one from the major that will be in play in the coming weeks despite CB policies.
2. All eyes in $43.6x starting today W close. First time a level in play for this month. ECB flop with FED hikes with end of winter, soft inflation keep coming form Europe and US, ind inventories over the roof will unlock a fast MAJOR exhaustion leg below $30.xx.
3. If trigger, it will have strong repercussion across the board for Q1/Q2 2016. Super tradable legs but expecting wide volatility that will probably make an 'untradable environment' if you are not a super experience trader ...

______$25.6(Steel Support)______$39.03(strong)______$43.6(flip)[in play]______$49.9(strong)______$60.25(Soft <<Locked>>)

--> EURO

 

1. Finally Euro. With the perfect storm aligned in the sky. We already lost 800 ticks since the ECB/FED combo and clearly a healthy time to lock profits before the major movers and shakers. Nothing in new on the table since last short term update a few days ago (from sell to neutral) and chart clearly following through....
2. Very marginal change of a preemptive break before ECB so there is not much to see at these levels. We are set for a rather slightly bullish W close for next week. Tracking 1.069x for the roll...

______$1.0161(Soft)[check]______$1.073x(strong)[triple check]______$1.097(flip)[check]______$1.117x(soft)[check]______$1.135x(strong )______$1.151x(Steel Support <<could be lock today>>)

sisse

based on what was seen post-FOMC-minutes, the markets love "certainty" and at this point, I think the Dec FOMC NOT HIKING would be the only thing that could break the US equity melt-up......

-> I mentioned this a few times around here and showed a few examples of FA charts. In general, there is TA alone levels and they are FA levels.

1.061x is a FA support on rate differentials ... my 2 cents, mark your charts mate don't just for technical levels but for fundamental ones too. Always have a naked chart with your FA major levels ...you will thank me later. *** Hint go back to the FOMC MARCH breakout (18/03) when the FED killed hikes until Q3 2015 ...

-> Bastardising the concept (just for the sake of the argument) and to put it in a more 'TA/chart framework'.

Basically we 'wont' breakdown (W or M) without a proper confirmation of either QE or rate cuts (or both) and/or FED hikes. If you want to 'fade it' before the news/or with a flop in ECB just wait for a micro break intraday down 1.054x/6x so the 'minions' and uninformed jump on board on the wrong train aiming to parity and play the trap ...

If you are shorter term and don't care about the swing or the real FA play, or you want to play the next week just play the zigzag with today's roll (inertia down/trap/reverso/choppy retrace)but be aware the rain maker is not in the micro levels or the technical side right now (but in the actual policy time announcement)and that we have a very short next week....

I hope it helps..if the explanation make any sense

sisse

sisse,

Thanks fro your informative info and update to market conditions. I am wondering why P/A has not re-tested the 1.061X area one more time since it is soft support? I would think with FED and ECB "doing what they claim they will do" would have this level being re-tested first. I am curious as to why Price is hesitant to re-test this level before the W roll being slightly bullish next week.

You are watching the .0690 area for a W roll next? I am using the .0730 still as solid R.

Thanks for you time!

1.073x is empty now in my books but it can become very important reference again for the ECB in DEC ... 1.069x was/is for today's roll as failure will unlock a test of the 1.05xx handle for next week. (thats why I am tracking it)...

ECB flop for a deeper pullback. ECB double whammy (QE + Rate cuts) non stop 1.020x (but that is for the outlook next month ....

sisse