Is it time to go short? Look at this upper move, price hat to ratrace soon...
- Post #63,903
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 7:14am Dec 2, 2015 7:14am
{quote} Hey Tibo , Last year, about the same time posted something really useful , what gives you quickly a good kind of expereince after a several weeks of " training" http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post7743986 I viewed your DOC and in fact id never tried a kind of system with only 52% winners. when i started the TMS ( totally simple and easy without most indicators .. and only h4 and d1 Im successful in TMs ) , I started with a quick backtest .. done within 1-3 hours.. then for weeks .. yes weeks only the posted...
I have used this simulator aswell. I think it's very good but it also has limitations. Trade management is pretty hard. But the idea is indeed to come up with a set of rules and then test them in a simulated environment.
53% Winrate is indeed lower than what most people seem to achieve with TMS. But keep in mind the entry criteria for this backtest. I really don't think this is a tradable system when I look at the distribution of drawdowns for example in my Monte Carlo simulation... This is really hard for any person to withstand I think. I want to mould this system into something that is actually tradable and emotionally managable that fits me. The key will be filtering market types and exit strategies.
I like to think that I have found the way but the path is long
Best,
- Post #63,904
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 7:27am Dec 2, 2015 7:27am
{quote} Why did you not include ADR on your chart LL? Your chart looks simple and neat, but you can take home very good amount of pips. May I ask also what is the setting of your 2 yellow MAs? How do you choose your pairs for the day? I think I am already having information overload... Been reading a lot here in TMS and pdfs attached, I do not know how to apply it all anymore.I am getting hesitant with opening a trade already.
I understand what you are saying. Many times I have felt overloaded with information too in this TMS thread. I think this is because the original edge in TMS has been taken by many traders over the years and every single one of them have found a way to make the system their own. As a result there is a lot of information in this thread. The core of all the systems remains the same.
I think it's important to stay focused. Have your goals and objectives in mind. Have you written down your objectives? Study certain aspects in detail, but one at a time. I would refer you to my google driver folder where you can find a lot of information. Find some things you want to study and do so. Write down your rules (that you have tested preferably) and follow them.
Give yourself time. I think Big E said to spend atleast 3 months testing and learning the system. There is the 10000-hour screentime. Give yourself 3 years to learn forex trading... A lot of different numbers and there is no right one. You'll have to find out your "threshold" for yourself.
I'm in the same boat as you and still studying, learning and experimenting. Good luck!
- Post #63,905
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 7:50am Dec 2, 2015 7:50am
Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
- Post #63,906
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 8:03am Dec 2, 2015 8:03am
{quote} Hi Fbps, No indicator and normal eyes. My trading day starts at 7:00am gmt. It takes me about 15 minutes to scan the 8 pairs I watch for any potential setups. When I spot a setup I drag the chart for that pair to the left of my screen so I effectively rank the pairs I'm watching from left to right. It's then time for a shower and breakfast ready to start trading at 8:00am gmt. There might be the very odd occasion when I enter a trade at 7:00am but I don't like trading on FO.
- Post #63,908
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 8:20am Dec 2, 2015 8:20am
{quote} Why did you not include ADR on your chart LL? Your chart looks simple and neat, but you can take home very good amount of pips. May I ask also what is the setting of your 2 yellow MAs? How do you choose your pairs for the day? I think I am already having information overload... Been reading a lot here in TMS and pdfs attached, I do not know how to apply it all anymore.
When a trade is that close to the daily open there is no need to look at the ADR. If the trade had gone another 20 pips or so I would have dropped the ADR indicator on the chart and set an alarm just above the ADR then removed the indi. Sometimes I set an alarm at the ADR high/low as a reminder and again remove the indi.
The 2 yellow ema are the PAC that is built into the synergy_pro_APB. They give you a conservative entry but can help keep you out of bad trades as you should wait for the APB to close outside the PAC before entering and stops you jumping on every APB move and TDI cross. They can also be used as an exit rule for when the APB closes back inside the pack.
I watch the same 8 pairs all the time and reckon to see 2 -3 good trade setups a day.
Try to keep things as simple as possible and don't try and run before you can walk. Aim for 20 - 30 pips a trade and once that target is reached take the profit no matter what happens to the price after you have closed. After a month you'll soon find that 20 pips seems easy so increase you target slightly (but only if there is room for price to move). On a lot of the pairs I trade, 1 APB is about 20-25 pips so you could close your trade after I APB until you get confidence.
Hope this helps
Edit: And always trade with the trend.
Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
- Post #63,910
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 10:34am Dec 2, 2015 10:34am
- | Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Member | 37 Posts
Trading is simply about managing the area between your ears
- Post #63,911
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 10:48am Dec 2, 2015 10:48am
why do we fall? So we can learn to pick ourselves up.
- Post #63,913
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 11:31am Dec 2, 2015 11:31am
- | Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Member | 37 Posts
G'day everyone!! Entered this trade(Sell) when candle closed below 200ema and 50 ema along with the tdi cross. But sadly, it retraced back to my SL(40pips) before going all bearish. Is there away where i can avoid this type of situation in the future? Thank You!! {image}
I call those whipsaw bars, 'bronco bars' because it feels like you just got bucked. They happen all the time and are annoying.
I use the aroon to say get out or stay in. Only look for a cross on aroon.If you look at the regular candles with an Elliot wave view, these are frequently 'b' waves near recent highs and recent lows sometimes get a 2 wave.
I also look at them as 2nd chances to enter again if I get stopped out but I usually set stops at lows and tops of swings ..... like eelfranz did.
Trading is simply about managing the area between your ears
- Post #63,914
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 11:39am Dec 2, 2015 11:39am
Tibo and Lookleft, thank you for the insightful message and teachings. I will restart again with a clearer mind on my objective and learn the system once more.
Please do not get tired to help and share your thoughts and teachings to us newbies.
Please do not get tired to help and share your thoughts and teachings to us newbies.
- Post #63,916
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 12:29pm Dec 2, 2015 12:29pm
- | Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Junior Member | 2 Posts
- Post #63,917
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 12:44pm Dec 2, 2015 12:44pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 1,045 Posts
- Post #63,918
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 12:44pm Dec 2, 2015 12:44pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 1,045 Posts
{quote} Thank u.. I see, the point is do I look only green line or both red and green line angle after crossing.
The green, Rose, just the green.
- Post #63,919
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 1:02pm Dec 2, 2015 1:02pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 1,045 Posts
Trades currently running = 200+ pips {image} {image} {image}
- Post #63,920
- Quote
- Dec 2, 2015 2:22pm Dec 2, 2015 2:22pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 1,045 Posts
{quote} Im a little less than 2 of 3 trades ( about 60% ) with a win ratio of 1:1 successful with tms , when I trade it and take only picky trades.. .. what is enough to grow the live account
Being picky is very good. I will give my example, and thus I am busted with the fact that I could not keep my promise for more than a day.
You know, the promise that I'll stop trading from December and use only the simulator. 
The market still moves nicely, I see nice setups, and I get hypnotized and push the trigger. But rest assured, I do use the simulator also.
AJ, H1, long
I entered later on this trade (because I was using the simulator
). If I had entered on the close of the first candle that closed above the PAC, I would have either locked in some profit, or exit at 30 pips (the ABP high was 35 pips). But since I entered when the candle had already moved 11 pips, I had to see my TP hit, which was a few pips higher than the high of the blue APB. I chose to move my SL to BE when the blue APB closed. I was taken out at BE. But this picky trade was a winner (30/35 pips), for anyone who traded the first candle close above the PAC.
AU, H1, long
This one was a looser. -14 pips. I should have been more cautious when I saw the last blue APB. It was very small, so I should have moved my SL under it. But instead I preferred to let the trade move higher before moving my SL.
GA, H1, short
This one was a winner, over 140 pips.
All these trades had hidden divergence, which was one more reason for me to pull the trigger in the right direction. I set the right direction from the D1. That is how I decide if I am a bull or a bear on the H1, and wait for a setup in the right direction. And I remember Big Emm talking about something similar, the D1 with the 10 EMA to establish the direction for the H1. If you like the 10 EMA, give it a try, cause I am sure Big Emm knew what he was talking about. I just do not use it like that. But I do take my direction from the D1.
To make it clearer, I use the long term guppies, the PAC and the APBs for my D1 direction. And this morning I noticed that I want to be a seller on GBPAUD, EURNZD, EURAUD and GBPNZD, and a buyer on AUDJPY, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Watch the yesterday's APB on those pairs on the D1, and you will understand why I chose them for today. Out of these 7 selected pairs, I entered on 3 of them.
And I also spotted a setup on H4, NU, using Big E's original method (but without the stochastics). Currently I have it on BE, so my 100+ pips are secured for the day. Now it's either BE, or TP. But keep in mind I am still on tests with Big E's original method, but so far it worked out nicely.
As you can see, the PA was rejected from a S/R area, and gave out a valid signal. As per Big E's instructions, the entry was done on the opening of the second red APB, with confirmation from the TDI. The only "rule breaking" was that I took it at the hour when Big E used to close his H4 trades. But the setup was good and I took advantage.
So Guido is right: being picky really pays off. I took only 4 trades in a whole day, and I trade 16 pairs.