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Trading Made Simple

  • #63,881
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:16am Dec 2, 2015 3:16am
Quoting Lookleft
{quote} As well as what TSS has said you need to know how ADR is calculated. Looking at EU at the moment I see the following (if my sums are right) Yesterday =75, Weekly = 68, Monthly = 87, 180 days = 120. So when someone talks about ADR you need to know what period they are talking about.
Is ADR vital to TMS? Should it be taken into consideration before entering a trade while using TMS method?
  • #63,882
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:22am Dec 2, 2015 3:22am
Quoting pulubi28
{quote} Is ADR vital to TMS? Should it be taken into consideration before entering a trade while using TMS method?
If you are trading H1 it is always a good idea to keep and eye the the ADR as it can act as another form of S/R. There is an indi called SM_ADR Marker in the paperclip that can be useful.
Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
  • #63,883
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:32am Dec 2, 2015 3:32am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Here's your clock, Rose: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8545398 Downloaded and make good use of it. {image}
Hmmmm, can't seem to find the indicator in your post above. The clock is just an attached image Catalin. Can you update please? Thanks!
  • #63,884
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:46am Dec 2, 2015 3:46am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, When we use the HeikenAshi HA or the Average Price Bar APB candle , we prefer to see the candles with little or no wicks at the bottom for bullish strength. The opposite for bearish strength. I think this was explained in one of the Synergy model pdf. Personally I prefer to look at the price bars over the APB. I look at the APB body and if there are upper and lower wicks is a good warning of potential phase change in the price. About the AUDUSD Weekly chart, I made some new comments n the chart below. Also the second hart below show...
Assuming it's not near to the support & resistance, and if candle A is above 5 ema or above PAC, do you still wait for the 4 hour candle to close first before entry even though the TDI crossed?
  • #63,885
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:58am Dec 2, 2015 3:58am
Quoting Fbps
{quote} Assuming it's not near to the support & resistance, and if candle A is above 5 ema or above PAC, do you still wait for the 4 hour candle to close first before entry even though the TDI crossed?
As a beginning trader you are best to take a conservative approach. I.e. wait for the candle to close across.

I'm pretty sure that Big E did not like this as he lost too many pips and he did aggressive entries. He checked the open of new candles and entered when it was crossing on this new candle if everything else looked good.

Can anyone confirm this?
  • #63,886
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:59am Dec 2, 2015 3:59am
Quoting Fbps
{quote} Assuming it's not near to the support & resistance, and if candle A is above 5 ema or above PAC, do you still wait for the 4 hour candle to close first before entry even though the TDI crossed?
How will you know if the APB is going to close above the 5ema/PAC if you don't wait for it to close? A H4 APB can pull back a long way in an hour.
Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
  • #63,887
  • Dec 2, 2015 4:00am Dec 2, 2015 4:00am
Quoting tibovwh
{quote} As a beginning trader you are best,,,,,,. Can anyone confirm this?


The reason is : If you use the PAC , use it right !

Green pips
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #63,888
  • Dec 2, 2015 4:07am Dec 2, 2015 4:07am
I find it so difficult to find a decent pair to trade as almost every currency pairs have new support & resistance formed after a swing high or a swing low. See an example attached.

Not quite sure if I am trading correctly using the Synergy Pro indicators.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 Dec 2.png Size: 28 KB
  • #63,889
  • Dec 2, 2015 4:20am Dec 2, 2015 4:20am
Quoting Lookleft
{quote} How will you know if the APB is going to close above the 5ema/PAC if you don't wait for it to close? A H4 APB can pull back a long way in an hour.
Ok, make sense Lookleft but that would mean that you wouldn't be able to enter on 1st candle even though the TDI crossed? Am I losing an advantage in my entry then? Perhaps better be safe than sorry
  • #63,890
  • Dec 2, 2015 4:28am Dec 2, 2015 4:28am
EURAUD H1
Bit of a no brainer for TMS.
Break out of the Asian channel with trend, APB closed outside PAC and below YL with momentum. TP set for next RN. Might go a bit further.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 34 KB
Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
  • #63,891
  • Dec 2, 2015 4:46am Dec 2, 2015 4:46am
Back to the drawing board.

I'm going to spend more time testing. When I forward test my "rules" it seems like I can never stick to these long enough to verify their performance. I think I will never have enough confidence in my rules when I haven't backtested these properly. So I'm spending a lot more time on this part to design something that fits me and something that works. And then the only thing remaining is discipline.

I started yesterday with the very basics. Open a trade when APB close is above/below the 10EMA + APB changed colour #1 or #2 + TDI Green crossed Red. Evaluated at the close of every bar. So this is pretty basic TMS. It's very close to the original rules and it takes all these signals. There is no filter or anything. I've run this on AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD for a period of 2 years.

My results suggest that this in itself is enough an "edge" to trade. I don't really consider this a tradable system. The drawdowns are pretty heavy. But I think we can call this the raw edge in TMS. If anyone likes doing this kind of stuff and can verify this with his/her results this would be nice. I think I was correct in my calculations and assumptions but it's possible an error slipped in there somewhere.

I will take this as the starting point. I'm going to try and mould this into a tradable system that fits me. What do we need? First, I think this will need some kind of filters. I will look at all trades in my backtest and see if I can come up with some basic trades not to take (i.e. when there is a very large wick). Another important kind of filter would be the market type. I think my combined graph shows clearly that there is periods of strong performance followed by some consolidation. this could have something to do with the market type. Next, I think my system will need better exit rules. These are one of the more important aspects of systems. Scaling out winners would be a possibility. This should keep my winrate largely the same but increase my R/R somewhat.

Anyway, I'm going to look into this more before I come up with extra rules. I'm always a bit scared when i'm backtesting that I'm datafitting or that I'm making mistakes but I think this is pretty solid. I'm determined to make it in this trading game and I'm willing to put in a lot of work. I'm sure that this will pay off in the long run. I also invested in a program to backtest more. When I finalize some thing I want to put my rules through there too.

Best,
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx The RAW edge in TMS.docx   190 KB | 568 downloads
  • #63,892
  • Dec 2, 2015 4:47am Dec 2, 2015 4:47am
Quoting Lookleft
EURAUD H1 Bit of a no brainer for TMS. Break out of the Asian channel with trend, APB closed outside PAC and below YL with momentum. TP set for next RN. Might go a bit further. {image}
Good catch
  • #63,893
  • Dec 2, 2015 4:53am Dec 2, 2015 4:53am
Quoting Fbps
{quote} Ok, make sense Lookleft but that would mean that you wouldn't be able to enter on 1st candle even though the TDI crossed? Am I losing an advantage in my entry then? Perhaps better be safe than sorry
waiting for it to close first is a conservative approach.

of course you can go in without the candle closing. more risky but can be rewarding if u catch the trend.
  • #63,894
  • Dec 2, 2015 4:55am Dec 2, 2015 4:55am
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote} You have to adapt to changing ADR , that's a fact in trading in general, Phx62 used a 50-50 pips stop and take profit , but that 50 pips stop is just an emergency stop, in case of unwillingly spikes occurs while he is in a trade, he does cut losers short before they hits that 50 pips emergency stop
Thanks Scorps!

Are u following PHX62 rules to the T? even though the ADR changed to about half the size? I assume you have just naturally changed the SL and TP to half its size also to 25?
  • #63,895
  • Dec 2, 2015 4:57am Dec 2, 2015 4:57am
Quoting Lookleft
EURAUD H1 Bit of a no brainer for TMS. Break out of the Asian channel with trend, APB closed outside PAC and below YL with momentum. TP set for next RN. Might go a bit further. {image}
Yes you're right Lookleft. I missed this while looking at other currency pairs. Do you have 4 pairs of eyes or a scanning indicator to assist?
  • #63,896
  • Dec 2, 2015 5:12am Dec 2, 2015 5:12am
Quoting Lookleft
{quote} If you are trading H1 it is always a good idea to keep and eye the the ADR as it can act as another form of S/R. There is an indi called SM_ADR Marker in the paperclip that can be useful.
Why did you not include ADR on your chart LL? Your chart looks simple and neat, but you can take home very good amount of pips.
May I ask also what is the setting of your 2 yellow MAs?
How do you choose your pairs for the day?

I think I am already having information overload... Been reading a lot here in TMS and pdfs attached, I do not know how to apply it all anymore. I am getting hesitant with opening a trade already.
  • #63,897
  • Dec 2, 2015 5:37am Dec 2, 2015 5:37am
Quoting ChrisFXNB
{quote} Thanks Scorps! Are u following PHX62 rules to the T? even though the ADR changed to about half the size? I assume you have just naturally changed the SL and TP to half its size also to 25?
Yes I do follow Phx62, I still do use the same 50 stop loss but I try to minimise losses within half that amounts or lesser , I most likely use S/R , EMA 10 and TDI to determine if the trade has room for a 50 pips TP , more or less than that
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #63,898
  • Dec 2, 2015 5:40am Dec 2, 2015 5:40am
Is my entry ok on the 2 charts? I can't enter earlier on 2nd candle as when the candle opens it's already half way through the 1st candle.

On my 2nd chart, I entered on 2nd candle.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD H1 Dec 2.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD H1 Dec 2.png Size: 42 KB
  • #63,899
  • Dec 2, 2015 5:43am Dec 2, 2015 5:43am
tibovwh r u following the long term trend using the entries in 4hr for this results rather than taking every trade that crosses to the up and downside of 10emq
  • #63,900
  • Dec 2, 2015 5:51am Dec 2, 2015 5:51am
Quoting tibovwh
Back to the drawing board. I'm going to spend more time testing. When I forward test my "rules" it seems like I can never stick to these long enough to verify their performance. I think I will never have enough confidence in my rules when I haven't backtested these properly. So I'm spending a lot more time on this part to design something that fits me and something that works. And then the only thing remaining is discipline. I started yesterday with the very basics. Open a trade when APB close is above/below the 10EMA + APB changed colour #1 or...


Hey Tibo ,
Last year, about the same time posted something really useful , what gives you quickly a good kind of expereince after a several weeks of " training"

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post7743986

I viewed your DOC and in fact id never tried a kind of system with only 52% winners.

when i started the TMS ( totally simple and easy without most indicators .. and only h4 and d1 Im successful in TMs ) ,
I started with a quick backtest .. done within 1-3 hours.. then for weeks .. yes weeks only the posted simulator .. to train entries, exits.. train my eye and get confidence in what I do in TMS .
And exactly thats what makes every system work !
- the experience when to skip a trade ,
- what exactly to look for ..
- being picky pays out !

In the end Im a little less than 2 of 3 trades ( about 60% ) with a win ratio of 1:1 successful with tms , when I trade it and take only picky trades..
.. what is enough to grow the live account .
.. these confidence I learned first in the sim.. daily 20-30 minutes training and thats it !
patience is the key what makes it profitable :-)

Hope that helped to find your way
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
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