Aussie Rate Decision in minutes....
- #1,039,443
- Nov 30, 2015 7:49pm Nov 30, 2015 7:49pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,144 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
- #1,039,444
- Nov 30, 2015 8:01pm Nov 30, 2015 8:01pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,144 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
- #1,039,445
- Nov 30, 2015 8:03pm Nov 30, 2015 8:03pm
- | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,823 Posts
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
- #1,039,446
- Nov 30, 2015 10:05pm Nov 30, 2015 10:05pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 23,869 Posts
- #1,039,447
- Nov 30, 2015 10:10pm Nov 30, 2015 10:10pm
i am long eu gu and au with big targets
I also long EU [email protected] and GU [email protected]
Could extend if it can break the resistance
Don't trust me. I'm still newbie
- #1,039,448
- Nov 30, 2015 10:17pm Nov 30, 2015 10:17pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 23,869 Posts
- #1,039,449
- Nov 30, 2015 10:29pm Nov 30, 2015 10:29pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Ride the Pig | 31,271 Posts
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
- #1,039,450
- Nov 30, 2015 10:42pm Nov 30, 2015 10:42pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 23,869 Posts
dollar still looks suppportive, i look to buy usdchf near 1.0240, just ahead of last weeks mid...and short gbp at 1.5115, also last weeks mid.......... Not seeing any interesting levels in the eur just yet this week...
please donate generously to gatorinla support fund instead of taking counter trend trades
joking
- #1,039,451
- Nov 30, 2015 10:44pm Nov 30, 2015 10:44pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Ride the Pig | 31,271 Posts
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
- #1,039,452
- Nov 30, 2015 10:49pm Nov 30, 2015 10:49pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 23,869 Posts
- #1,039,453
- Nov 30, 2015 10:54pm Nov 30, 2015 10:54pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Ride the Pig | 31,271 Posts
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
- #1,039,454
- Nov 30, 2015 10:55pm Nov 30, 2015 10:55pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 23,869 Posts
The ECB are as data dependant as the Fed so here's 3 indicators that are worth watching
Adam posted up the comprehensive list of data due this week. Here's what will be important to the ECB
Manufacturing PMI's
We get the final manufacturing numbers tomorrow and we'll need to have a closer look at the prices details within the reports. We may or may not get any actual numbers but the Markit reports will have plenty of comments on them.
The main Eurozone flash number rose to the highest since May 2014 at 52.8 and is expected unchanged. We also get the first numbers for Spain and Italy before the main EZ data so that could have a bearing. If the US is moaning about the strength of the dollar affecting its manufacturing then the Eurozone should be creaming it in, surely?
Unemployment
Also tomorrow we get the latest unemployment numbers. Unemployment has been falling in the main and more strong numbers will cement the view that ECB QE is working. Eurozone unemployment is expected unchanged at 10.8%. That's some way off the 12.1% seen in Mar/Apr 2013
Inflation
Probably the biggest number for the ECB this week comes in Wednesday from the first reading of November inflation. There's been good signals that inflation is trying to build across the region. It's not likely to all be plain sailing though, as we saw today. German inflation was higher but Italian prices dropped a chunk. Headline EZ CPI is expected to tick up to 0.2% from 0.1% y/y. The all important core is expected unchanged at 1.1% y/y. I would suggest we maybe expect inflation to rise perhaps a touch more than expected
Here's how inflation has looked over the year so far
Eurozone inflation numbers
We can add PPI data in the mix too at the same time as the CPI release but they are for October so only a side note really
Again I've got to question some of the ECB members going on about wanting to see more data before making a decision on Thursday. There really isn't going to be any huge differences in the data that could sway them, unless a percentage point here and there is enough to tip their decisions one way or another. It seems that whatever comes out the ECB are going to act anyway in one form or another. If there are any big variations in the data then they could sway the severity of action
Trading wise, the euro has both eyes on the ECB meeting and is unlikely to do much on the data releases (unless there's some really big differences), so trading the data is probably a pointless exercise. The data should be used to try and hone expectations for the ECB on Thursday, and on that, it's difficult to feel that Draghi will say or do anything that sends the euro higher
Adam posted up the comprehensive list of data due this week. Here's what will be important to the ECB
Manufacturing PMI's
We get the final manufacturing numbers tomorrow and we'll need to have a closer look at the prices details within the reports. We may or may not get any actual numbers but the Markit reports will have plenty of comments on them.
The main Eurozone flash number rose to the highest since May 2014 at 52.8 and is expected unchanged. We also get the first numbers for Spain and Italy before the main EZ data so that could have a bearing. If the US is moaning about the strength of the dollar affecting its manufacturing then the Eurozone should be creaming it in, surely?
Unemployment
Also tomorrow we get the latest unemployment numbers. Unemployment has been falling in the main and more strong numbers will cement the view that ECB QE is working. Eurozone unemployment is expected unchanged at 10.8%. That's some way off the 12.1% seen in Mar/Apr 2013
Inflation
Probably the biggest number for the ECB this week comes in Wednesday from the first reading of November inflation. There's been good signals that inflation is trying to build across the region. It's not likely to all be plain sailing though, as we saw today. German inflation was higher but Italian prices dropped a chunk. Headline EZ CPI is expected to tick up to 0.2% from 0.1% y/y. The all important core is expected unchanged at 1.1% y/y. I would suggest we maybe expect inflation to rise perhaps a touch more than expected
Here's how inflation has looked over the year so far
Eurozone inflation numbers
We can add PPI data in the mix too at the same time as the CPI release but they are for October so only a side note really
Again I've got to question some of the ECB members going on about wanting to see more data before making a decision on Thursday. There really isn't going to be any huge differences in the data that could sway them, unless a percentage point here and there is enough to tip their decisions one way or another. It seems that whatever comes out the ECB are going to act anyway in one form or another. If there are any big variations in the data then they could sway the severity of action
Trading wise, the euro has both eyes on the ECB meeting and is unlikely to do much on the data releases (unless there's some really big differences), so trading the data is probably a pointless exercise. The data should be used to try and hone expectations for the ECB on Thursday, and on that, it's difficult to feel that Draghi will say or do anything that sends the euro higher
- #1,039,456
- Nov 30, 2015 11:06pm Nov 30, 2015 11:06pm
The EUR/USD is bearish on the higher H4 and D1 time frame. It is possible to seek for intra-day weakness on say H1 to re-join the bearish sentiment. Although, my trade position has broke even. I am looking for potential pyramiding trades. I am monitoring to see if the current upside would show any weakness upon this dominant downtrend.
Currently, H1 is showing signs of minor pull back towards the upside. The major bearish trend is still in play and still valid. It is safer to trade with the tide than against the tide.
I am looking to see how this zone play out for any possible price rejection to pyramid on the short side.
What do you guys think? Feel free to comment
Currently, H1 is showing signs of minor pull back towards the upside. The major bearish trend is still in play and still valid. It is safer to trade with the tide than against the tide.
I am looking to see how this zone play out for any possible price rejection to pyramid on the short side.
What do you guys think? Feel free to comment
- #1,039,457
- Nov 30, 2015 11:16pm Nov 30, 2015 11:16pm
The EUR/USD is bearish on the higher H4 and D1 time frame. It is possible to seek for intra-day weakness on say H1 to re-join the bearish sentiment. Although, my trade position has broke even. I am looking for potential pyramiding trades. I am monitoring to see if the current upside would show any weakness upon this dominant downtrend. Currently, H1 is showing signs of minor pull back towards the upside. The major bearish trend is still in play and still valid. It is safer to trade with the tide than against the tide. I am looking to see how this...
So I open long.
Fundamentally, still waiting for the news.
Maybe I can loss.
(Just a comment from newbie like me
)
Don't trust me. I'm still newbie
- #1,039,458
- Nov 30, 2015 11:21pm Nov 30, 2015 11:21pm
{quote} Technically in my D1 chart it already break daily trend line above 1.0576. So I open long. Fundamentally, still waiting for the news. Maybe I can loss. (Just a comment from newbie like me
From my understanding, the D chart has been running lower and lower and although we see quite a number of wicks and unclean price action on H4, there is still no clear sign of demand pressure.
What made you have the impression to trade long because it seems like a counter-trend trade to me for any long position
- #1,039,459
- Nov 30, 2015 11:30pm Nov 30, 2015 11:30pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 23,869 Posts
- #1,039,460
- Nov 30, 2015 11:44pm Nov 30, 2015 11:44pm
{quote} No problem! It perfectly fine to have differing views because of our differences in trading plans and rules. Perhaps you could share with us your chart on your long entry and explain to us a little bit more? From my understanding, the D chart has been running lower and lower and although we see quite a number of wicks and unclean price action on H4, there is still no clear sign of demand pressure. What made you have the impression to trade long because it seems like a counter-trend trade to me for any long position
When the price hit/break above the line and above tenkan price then I will go long.
After the price above 10-20 pips, I will set the SL to tenkan price.
Just my theory
Don't trust me. I'm still newbie