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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #1,781
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:17pm Nov 30, 2015 3:17pm
Tuesday
5:30
01/12/15
8 Comments 6 New comments
AU Interest
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
14% probability trades.

The market's attention is not there, at least because of the forthcoming nonfarmov, the ECB meeting, and at least Glenn Stevens, who last week stated the need to cool off until February, when the Bank will consider the new data streams.
Responding to the comments under the blog, we note that the occurrence of the predicted (keyword) movement at a time when the interest rate does not simply remain unchanged and comes out at the forecast level, perhaps only in those cases where: a) the markets read the accompanying protocols used ) when the markets do not agree with economists' forecasts. Neither the first nor the second is not expected.
Outlook and expectations are the same - the interest rate remains at 2%. Relevant remain idle RBA interest rate cut in the first half of 2016.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,782
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:20pm Nov 30, 2015 3:20pm
The first rule of the news of the trader:
Do not believe the analysts.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,783
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:49pm Nov 30, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting vvFish
The first rule of the news of the trader: Do not believe the analysts.
That sounds cool!

But is it correct? are you serious?
  • #1,784
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:50pm Nov 30, 2015 3:50pm
also-

how should we trade this news?

There could be a whiplash..
  • #1,785
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:52pm Nov 30, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting pulke
{quote} That sounds cool! But is it correct? are you serious?
Believe only the price chart
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,786
  • Nov 30, 2015 6:07pm Nov 30, 2015 6:07pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Why is the news from Australia come with a delay.


In this post, we will answer the question why the news from Australia come with a delay, almost in the middle of the market reaction to their publication.
The answer is simple, although surprising to many, but.
Australia does not have approved, a formal process for the publication of the statistical indicators.

Rather Australian Bureau of Statistics (Australian Bureau of Statistics) has no regulation to publish their data. This applies to all indicators except for the release of interest rate, as its source is not the above-mentioned offices.
This means that there is no procedure under which news providers would receive the data centrally. This means that there is no such news provider that would be able to publish data on the "continent" to the market reaction.
All the same, the data will be coming from the delay, in fact in such unequal terms we will always keep on oceanic distance delivery of news, which is nearly redundant (at least, this is an optimistic forecast) ~ 64ms, and this is without taking into account the time to download
data.
Does it make sense to move to Australia for what would have to trade the news - probably not, because we are not known providers that could work faster. In fact, analyzing charts and price movements at the time of release, one can clearly trace the dependence of the time until the signal reaches us geographically. In this regard, those who sit on the US server, VPS and brokers receive a signal in any case faster on 70-80 ms (the distance across the ocean) than those who trade in Europe.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,787
  • Nov 30, 2015 9:37pm Nov 30, 2015 9:37pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,788
  • Nov 30, 2015 11:21pm Nov 30, 2015 11:21pm
Quoting Prax
Interesting thread. Could someone enlighten me as to what the "% probability trades" means please?
Hey Prax

I am guessing because no one has answered you is because either they don't know, don't want you to know or haven't seen your post. Either way I would love to know what '% probability trades" mean?

Anyone, enlighten us please?

Thanks
'Stability breeds Instability' Hyman Minsky
  • #1,789
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:21am Dec 1, 2015 1:21am
Quoting ALFtrade
{quote} Hey Prax I am guessing because no one has answered you is because either they don't know, don't want you to know or haven't seen your post. Either way I would love to know what '% probability trades" mean? Anyone, enlighten us please? Thanks
% Probability that the transaction is for autoclicker.
For other traders who enter a market order or stop orders those tsyfry not play a role, but a common understanding of price movement they give you.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,790
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:58am Dec 1, 2015 1:58am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} % Probability that the transaction is for autoclicker. For other traders who enter a market order or stop orders those tsyfry not play a role, but a common understanding of price movement they give you.
So '% Probability' Is the percentage chance the deviation will be big enough to trigger the auto clicker?
'Stability breeds Instability' Hyman Minsky
  • #1,791
  • Dec 1, 2015 2:12am Dec 1, 2015 2:12am
Quoting ALFtrade
{quote} So '% Probability' Is the percentage chance the deviation will be big enough to trigger the auto clicker?
Probability of success autoclicker.
But I do not give a recommendation to trade autoclicker.
Brokers understand that you are working autoclicker and will put plug-in to your account at the plug you will often come late and soon you will have to change the broker.
All this is completed by me, because I give free advice enter a market order.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,792
  • Dec 1, 2015 7:42am Dec 1, 2015 7:42am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,793
  • Dec 1, 2015 8:03am Dec 1, 2015 8:03am
[quote = vvFish; 8618644] {{imagem}} imagem [/ quote]

good job
  • #1,794
  • Dec 1, 2015 8:29am Dec 1, 2015 8:29am
Quoting tiagomes71
[quote = vvFish; 8618644] {{imagem}} imagem [/ quote] good job
Thank you
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,795
  • Dec 1, 2015 9:38am Dec 1, 2015 9:38am
Wednesday
2:30
02/12/15
AU GDP growth HOT!
(AU GDP), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged, as expected. Markets are talking about a possible interest rate cut in February 2016. Australian regulator left references to expectations of economic growth in its protocol, while at the same time concerned about the decline in bank investments in the mining industry. Quarterly GDP growth more in its place the current focus, look at how the Australian economy to cope with the reduction of resource prices and RBA policy.
The only thing that could spoil this release - a traditional Australian formalized delay. With this closely.
The deficit of the balance of the country has decreased, however, analysts expect growth of 0.7%. We will see.

Wednesday
15:15
02/12/15
US ADP number of employed
(US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
19% probability trades.

On the eve of last Friday's NFP this year, you can try to unofficial data from ADP. Generally, markets are not very interested in dry index figure, the total consideration is received in conjunction with the average trend. The reason for that are the common mistakes and by Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
View at least on the latest release of November: 182K against 271K NFP real fact. In view of the fact that a small deviation from the forecast may not trigger adequate trade movement.
In any case it is necessary to tune in to a sluggish response.

Wednesday
17:00
02/12/15
CA overnight rate BC
(CA Overnight Rate), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

Precautions think that the Bank of Canada, somehow can decide to change the interest rates before the Fed meeting its American neighbor. More interest will cause the minutes of the Bank. The main variable is released will be the question: will the regulator a soft dovish tone.
Despite the easing of oil prices, Canada's labor market show acceptable results, and the dynamics of growth in wages exceeds the level of inflation. Perhaps to keep as close to the capital and the attractiveness of the US dollar, we can hear a more resolute attitude, that will override the market reaction at this point.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,796
  • Dec 1, 2015 10:57am Dec 1, 2015 10:57am
when you enter a transaction and loses, then immediately goes to another, which stop do you use? for I saw that the first order was you stop
  • #1,797
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:00am Dec 1, 2015 11:00am
I wanted to learn trading news also,
still I made $ 15 in USDCAD
  • #1,798
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:48pm Dec 1, 2015 1:48pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} Probability of success autoclicker. But I do not give a recommendation to trade autoclicker. Brokers understand that you are working autoclicker and will put plug-in to your account at the plug you will often come late and soon you will have to change the broker. All this is completed by me, because I give free advice enter a market order.
Thanks for that explaination
  • #1,799
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:05am Dec 2, 2015 3:05am
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.

Check expected number a couple of minutes before the data comes out .

Read this article to get some statistics:

*******************************************************************
Analysts Expect Crude-Oil Stocks to Decline in Weekly EIA Report
Published: Dec 01, 2015
By Timothy Puko

U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to decrease in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 10 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have decreased by 300,000 barrels, on average, in the week ended Nov. 27.

Six analysts expect stockpiles to fall and four expect them to rise. Forecasts range from a fall of 2 million barrels to a rise of 1.13 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EST Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 1 million barrels, according to analysts. Three analysts expect a decline and seven expect a rise. Estimates range from a fall of 3 million barrels to a rise of 2.9 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 100,000 barrels. Three analysts expect a decline and seven see a rise. Forecasts range from a drop of 2.7 million barrels to a rise of 2 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen rising 0.8 percentage point to 92.8% of capacity. Nine analysts expect a rise and one didn't report an estimate. Forecasts range from an increase of 0.2 point to 1.5 points.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is scheduled to report its inventory estimates for the same period later Tuesday.


Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital 0.7 2.9 1.1 0.2
Citi Futures Perspective 1 2 1.5 1
Confluence Investment Management -1.5 2.5 2 1.5
Energy Management Institute -0.5 1.5 1 1
Excel Futures 1.13 2.273 1.178 0.3
IAF Advisors -0.5 1.5 0.5 not available
Oil Outlooks -1.5 -1 -2 0.5
Price Futures Group -2 -3 -2 1
Ritterbusch and Associates 1 2.4 -2.7 1
Schneider Electric -0.5 -1.2 0.5 0.3

AVERAGE -0.3 1.0 0.1 0.8


(Figures in millions of barrels except for refining capacity, which is reported in percentage points. For analysts providing forecasts in a range, the average of the upper and lower ends of the range is used.)

*******************************************************************

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,800
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:38am Dec 2, 2015 3:38am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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