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AUD/USD

  • #93,841
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:05am Nov 30, 2015 10:05am
My 1 cent (if second S acts as resistance)...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 25 KB


Btw there's an inverse H&S already formed (as posted here)

Quoting Forexgain
Inverse head & shoulder pattern forming on daily chart. Sufficient to scare AUD bears {image}


Which way to go? If this quick S target acts as resistance (atleast 3 H1 bar closing beneath the second S) then i prefer to go along with Short. If second S breached then i prefer to go along with Inverse H&S already formed. Right now in wait & see mode...
  • #93,842
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:47am Nov 30, 2015 10:47am
Quoting KecoaKecil
Been a lazy sunday. I take a look at last week trade, and try to figure out next week trade. We have quite a lot of fundamental coming in, turbulence ahead captain.. ay ay. I don't see any strong red candle or green candle last friday, well it might be a weak bear, or we open up the monday with a gap down. Gap more likely. Tuesday i have good chinese data, and then no cut rate. What does it mean to me? Bull is charging. So monday is my clue, if that come close to 0.715x without breaking, i can risk long position. Unless i am seeing a strong red,...
No gap, only way down and bounce, Tomorrow is the big day, better i take profit now, stay at side line, wait and see.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #93,843
  • Nov 30, 2015 12:40pm Nov 30, 2015 12:40pm
if aud/usd rate stays the same it will be bullish? depends on statement is hawkish or dovish? What is your take?

I see the last few times the rate decision happened it seemed like the market did not move much. Maybe it is just me.
  • #93,844
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:42pm Nov 30, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting Gdi
if aud/usd rate stays the same it will be bullish? depends on statement is hawkish or dovish? What is your take? I see the last few times the rate decision happened it seemed like the market did not move much. Maybe it is just me.
No expectation of rate cut despite economy looking bleak.
RBA should move to lower rates and stimulate IMO.

2016 will be when they cut rates once the writings on the wall and then its too late. Hard landing .

AUD didnt win any favours from the IMF with China Reminbi preferred as their 5th currency.
What were they thinking ?
That wont bode too well for the Aussie .

Fundamentally I dont see any positives for the AUD.
  • #93,845
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:46pm Nov 30, 2015 3:46pm
What may happen if a surprise rate cut happens today. Why should they wait till 2016?
  • #93,846
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:48pm Nov 30, 2015 3:48pm
Quoting erdogac
What may happen if a surprise rate cut happens today. Why should they wait till 2016?
Because the RBA believes (at least publicly) that the Australian economy is successfully rebalancing away from mining into construction & services. Until there is consistent bad data to the contrary, they will maintain this mantra.

I will very much be betting on a hold & algo spike at announcement.
  • #93,847
  • Nov 30, 2015 4:06pm Nov 30, 2015 4:06pm
not sure why this even spiked during American session. Rates on hold with intention lowering next few months. Last time spike followed by selling when the Rba report came out
  • #93,848
  • Nov 30, 2015 4:15pm Nov 30, 2015 4:15pm
Quoting erdogac
What may happen if a surprise rate cut happens today. Why should they wait till 2016?
I'm hoping for an early Christmas present. If this happens . This could be a possibility to boost retail sales for Christmas.
  • #93,849
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:54pm Nov 30, 2015 5:54pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
not sure why this even spiked during American session. Rates on hold with intention lowering next few months. Last time spike followed by selling when the Rba report came out
Yeah the spike during US hours wasn't really supported by anything, anyway the Chinese figures come out 2 hours before the RBA decision. It will be interesting to see if they are really bad, if so then the Aus dolllar will spike downwards.
  • #93,850
  • Nov 30, 2015 6:32pm Nov 30, 2015 6:32pm
Quoting Dafonz
{quote} Yeah the spike during US hours wasn't really supported by anything, anyway the Chinese figures come out 2 hours before the RBA decision. It will be interesting to see if they are really bad, if so then the Aus dolllar will spike downwards.
my last readings indicate it went up as the interest rate decision of leaving it on hold is already priced in.
Build up to the RBA:
December the 1st? Wow, somebody tell me where 2015 went?!
With today also the 1st Tuesday of the month, the Reserve Bank of Australia meet today for what is expected to be a fairly uneventful release. After last week’s comments about chilling out(God I love the RBA), the market has all but priced out any chance of another cut before Santa drops down our chimneys.
“I’m more than content to lower it if that actually helps, but is that the best thing to do at a particular time?”
“As for February, that’s three months away, we’ve got Christmas, we should just chill out and see what the data says.”
AUD/USD 15 Minute:
https://www.vantagefx.com/wp-content...d_15minute.png
Click on chart to see a larger view.
As you can see from yesterday’s trading session, the Aussie traded higher heading into the release, bucking the trend of USDX strength. There has been slight improvement in the data outlook for the Australian economy lately, but with commodity prices continuing to get hammered far and wide, even from a chilled out Glenn, there is an expectation that we could see some jawboning of the Aussie.
I just love this AUD/USD weekly trend line. Even though the line is subjective and has been chopped through up and down multiple times even before yesterday, look at those clean touches on the 15 minute chart. Beautiful.
  • #93,851
  • Nov 30, 2015 7:38pm Nov 30, 2015 7:38pm
Quoting Forexgain
My 1 cent (if second S acts as resistance)... {image} Btw there's an inverse H&S already formed (as posted here) {quote} Which way to go? If this quick S target acts as resistance (atleast 3 H1 bar closing beneath the second S) then i prefer to go along with Short. If second S breached then i prefer to go along with Inverse H&S already formed. Right now in wait & see mode...


nice so far lets see if it touch the bottom or no
  • #93,852
  • Nov 30, 2015 8:55pm Nov 30, 2015 8:55pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} my last readings indicate it went up as the interest rate decision of leaving it on hold is already priced in.
I'm with the opinion that RBA will leave rates unchanged today and will move early to mid next year when the economic pain sets in. That is assuming Australia is heading towards some sort of recession. The RBA does have a history of waiting till the last minute thus being rather reactive in applying rate cuts.
  • #93,853
  • Nov 30, 2015 9:28pm Nov 30, 2015 9:28pm
not trading it - but looks ripe for a long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #93,854
  • Nov 30, 2015 9:45pm Nov 30, 2015 9:45pm
Aussie longs are very ripe for few days. ..trail stop and let run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #93,855
  • Nov 30, 2015 9:48pm Nov 30, 2015 9:48pm
hawkish report - things improving what a tool
Number2015-23
Date1 December 2015
EmbargoFor Immediate Release
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia's terms of trade are falling.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.
In Australia, the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues in the face of a large decline in capital spending in the mining sector. While GDP growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, business surveys suggest a gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors over the past year. This has been accompanied by stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment.
Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with credit provided by intermediaries to businesses picking up. Growth in lending to investors in the housing market has eased. Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.
The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
At today's meeting the Board again judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate. Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.
  • #93,856
  • Nov 30, 2015 9:56pm Nov 30, 2015 9:56pm
Quoting Compulsive
not trading it - but looks ripe for a long {image}
what a dud -

Quoting Forexgain
My 1 cent (if second S acts as resistance)... {image} Btw there's an inverse H&S already formed (as posted here) {quote} Which way to go? If this quick S target acts as resistance (atleast 3 H1 bar closing beneath the second S) then i prefer to go along with Short. If second S breached then i prefer to go along with Inverse H&S already formed. Right now in wait & see mode...
Liking it more
  • #93,857
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:05pm Nov 30, 2015 10:05pm
I thought Lower currency beneficial to country and his Making bullish comments
  • #93,858
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:20pm Nov 30, 2015 10:20pm
Out of long into short now, nice profit. I think there will be at least some pullback, even potentially a double top on 4h (short term). Pretty much everything as expected, except the RBA spike was not very big, but it was no big surprise after all.
  • #93,859
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:30pm Nov 30, 2015 10:30pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Out of long into short now, nice profit. I think there will be at least some pullback, even potentially a double top on 4h (short term). Pretty much everything as expected, except the RBA spike was not very big, but it was no big surprise after all.
It was already priced in
  • #93,860
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:37pm Nov 30, 2015 10:37pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
hawkish report - things improving what a tool Number2015-23 Date1 December 2015 EmbargoFor Immediate Release Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent. The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia's...
As you can see from the RBA its all rear view mirror stuff.
This has been their downfall over many decades.
They rely on historical information rather than seeing whats ahead of them.
IMO they should have eased .25pts and had a look in another couple of months as Asia is in a hole right now, you know our biggest trading partners.
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