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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #58,621
  • Nov 28, 2015 12:35am Nov 28, 2015 12:35am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} May be that's a good idea towards end of Friday session and spend time analyse the whole thing in the W/E. It's not gonna drop down much in the next few hours or does it?
Yeah .. mixed signals, low liquidity, bad time to enter ... Technically saying I might try a short if it break down 122.23 .. or long if it break up 123 ...

We'll see on Monday
  • #58,622
  • Nov 28, 2015 11:29am Nov 28, 2015 11:29am
Which is why previously posted:

Famous trading expression: "Never short a dull market".

Whoever did go short would have needed great timing to come out a winner - before the fast "V" reversal back higher.
  • #58,623
  • Nov 28, 2015 4:11pm Nov 28, 2015 4:11pm
Double top - possible correction move down to ~120.8
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png Size: 50 KB
To break the rules you must first master them.
  • #58,624
  • Edited 6:57pm Nov 28, 2015 6:39pm | Edited 6:57pm
Technically, corrections will eventually be retraced by the next trending wave or 'resume trend'.
Knowing if it's a correction is the 1st thing, 2nd is to analyze when that correction actually completes ;
rather than relying on generalization like 'it's best to sell in summer or winter' or 'not to sell in dull markets'.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #58,625
  • Nov 28, 2015 6:58pm Nov 28, 2015 6:58pm
Quoting skyhok
Technically, corrections will eventually be retraced by the next trending wave or 'resume trend'. Knowing if it's a correction is the 1st thing, 2nd is to analyze when that correction actually completes.
Do you happened to have a good wave indicator, a WW maybe? 😆 Or you just drew it yourself?The thing I like about W wave is, when we can spot the correct pattern at correct time, it perfectly projecting the bounce point and target. The bad thing is, it took forever to enter the trade as we wait for the pattern to complete it's cycle 😁
  • #58,626
  • Nov 28, 2015 7:17pm Nov 28, 2015 7:17pm
Quoting skyhok
... or 'not to sell in dull markets'.
Do you know what the expression actually means. If not it is better not to comment and show your ignorance. Or better yet - ask first.
  • #58,627
  • Nov 28, 2015 7:24pm Nov 28, 2015 7:24pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Do you know what the expression actually means. If not it is better not to comment and show your ignorance. Or better yet - ask first.
Yes. Please tell me when a dull market actually finishes ?
I'll sell.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #58,628
  • Nov 28, 2015 7:46pm Nov 28, 2015 7:46pm
Quoting liquidice
{quote} Do you happened to have a good wave indicator, a WW maybe? 😆 Or you just drew it yourself?The thing I like about W wave is, when we can spot the correct pattern at correct time, it perfectly projecting the bounce point and target. The bad thing is, it took forever to enter the trade as we wait for the pattern to complete it's cycle 😁
Patience is what I needed, too.
Many do well with Gartley patterns, while I use Elliott Wave, both gives Fibonacci ratios of retracement. I'm sure there are other ones.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #58,629
  • Nov 28, 2015 8:39pm Nov 28, 2015 8:39pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Yes. Please tell me when a dull market actually finishes ? I'll sell.
What the expression means was my question. Not if you knew (or I knew) when dull markets will end.

I'm sure you know Thursday was a holiday here in the U.S. and most of Wall Street and the rest of the financial markets here were very slow on Friday as well. This is what is known as a dull market. For currencies and commodities and indexes and bonds and stocks and options.

Monday will be back to normal.

What dull doesn't mean is when markets aren't moving much (in consolidation patterns etc) during typical trading days. Although its not smart to short then either - or go long. But most impatient traders think they are smarter than the market and put positions on before the move happens. Sometimes they win, most times they lose. That is what impatient, soon to be former traders do.

Time teaches those who are willing to learn.
  • #58,630
  • Nov 29, 2015 5:59am Nov 29, 2015 5:59am
Waiting to enter long.
  • #58,631
  • Edited 5:53pm Nov 29, 2015 6:51am | Edited 5:53pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} What the expression means was my question. Not if you knew (or I knew) when dull markets will end. I'm sure you know Thursday was a holiday here in the U.S. and most of Wall Street and the rest of the financial markets here were very slow on Friday as well. This is what is known as a dull market. For currencies and commodities and indexes and bonds and stocks and options. Monday will be back to normal. What dull doesn't mean is when markets aren't moving much (in consolidation patterns etc) during typical trading days. Although its not smart...
That's very interesting, when FX is the largest global market these days, would one consider a dull day and refrain from buying & selling when US or Europe ..... or even Asia is having a holiday?

Just looking at last two US holiday sessions, I notice some traders had a field day with that intra-day range.

For longer term traders, a holiday session is a small bleep in their trading range.

Anyway, I sold from recent top, now looking for a bounce to add. I think that was the next day after you predicted USDJPY is on an uptrend, wasn't it?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY - Alternate 27 - Nov-20 1226 PM (6 hour).png Size: 53 KB



Quoting SunTrader
.................................... so I expect USDJPY to continue its uptrend much further.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #58,632
  • Edited 7:53am Nov 29, 2015 7:35am | Edited 7:53am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} That's very interesting, when FX is the largest global market these days, would one consider a dull day and refrain from buying & selling when US or Europe ..... or even Asia is having a holiday? Just looking at last two US holiday sessions, I notice some traders had a field day with that intra-day range. For longer term traders, a holiday session is a small bleep in their trading range. Anyway, I sold from recent top, now looking for a bounce to add. I think that was the next day after you predicted USDJPY is on an uptrend, wasn't it? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post8601759...
You seem to have a reading comprehension problem - especially with regards to chart (looks very up to me with NARROW range bars the last two days going SIDEWAYS):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #58,633
  • Nov 29, 2015 7:56am Nov 29, 2015 7:56am
Don't like that one. How about a weekly (which still shows same thing UP trend):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #58,634
  • Nov 29, 2015 8:07am Nov 29, 2015 8:07am
Lots of market moving events this week.Most important what Yellen might say on Weds and Thurs.
UJ tends to follow fundamentals closely.Should NU AU shoot higher anticipate UJ to drop accordingly.Both AU NU are over stressed reaching their limits on Bear side.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,635
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:21am Nov 30, 2015 3:21am
As you can see, U/J is in a side way trend while the MACD is already divergence. It will remain consolidate at the range between 122.22-123.60 and once it break 122.22, a bear trend will start.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-h4-fxprimus-ltd-2.png Size: 52 KB
  • #58,636
  • Nov 30, 2015 6:14am Nov 30, 2015 6:14am
Would rather be sceptic of any further up-move for USDJPY beyond 123.20-25 resistance.
123.60-70 strong resistance to follow.
Weakness below 122.80 to again expose 122.40-35 support area, which if broken decisively sets the stage for a drop towards 121.60-50 support.
  • #58,637
  • Nov 30, 2015 7:28am Nov 30, 2015 7:28am
This pair is strongly positively correlated to USD/CAD, HKD/JPY, and EUR/AUD. Therefore, only buy or sell USD/JPY, if all the other positively correlated pairs are giving the same signal. Remain long with targets at 123.27, and the next target at 123.63.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #58,638
  • Nov 30, 2015 9:53am Nov 30, 2015 9:53am
Bear Gartley on H4 though i don't know if it i will hold too many levels right above it.

my entry will be at 123.22 instead of 123.133
sell @123.22 TP 122.8 1st, 122.6 2nd SL 123.3


Attached Image
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  • #58,639
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:02am Nov 30, 2015 10:02am
Quoting swimmax
Bear Gartley on H4 though i don't know if it i will hold too many levels right above it. my entry will be at 123.22 instead of 123.133 sell @123.22 TP 122.8 1st, 122.6 2nd SL 123.3 {image}
S/O oh well
forex forex forex
  • #58,640
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:49pm Nov 30, 2015 3:49pm
Hey traders,

What was the reason of this bull move on jpy pairs? there wasnt any news at the FF calendar.
Attached Image


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