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Trading made simple with added BS

  • #101
  • Nov 27, 2015 11:09am Nov 27, 2015 11:09am
Quoting nunrgguy
{quote} You can draw a line anywhere you like on a chart. Price can bounce off it or it can go straight through it. Does the line have any significance apart from that which you put on it? The weekly open is a fixed reference, relative to THIS week. Price can be moving away from it or moving towards it. If you don't have a fixed reference how can you ever know if price is up or down?
Well they are not just any lines. And the significance is not what I place upon them it is what the market placed upon them and why they will be evident on the chart infinitum. I understand you are trying to calibrate a rubber band theory in terms of wick above body/below body travel, the point is not lost on me. What I am saying is also within the current week and every week hereinafter there will be lots of reference points. When you work with specific levels price up or down is somewhat irrelevant. What does matter is it reacts with the reference point in a way you can work with. Anyway Nun not looking for argument I just thought my approach may be of some value as the common thread was OHLC, if not no problem.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #102
  • Dec 1, 2015 7:39pm Dec 1, 2015 7:39pm
Quoting nunrgguy
{quote} ... Before a wick can be created a body must be. Also Don't just look at on average, look at the distribution of the wick and body ranges I.E out of the last 500 weeks (say), for both red and green candles, what's the percentages bodies making 50-75. 75-100......200-225. Likewise for the wicks.
Some basic gatherings.

The two charts attached are the BOs, referencing the idea of the how a wick is created above. So BOs and retracements. The retracements are shown in the other picture. Just from the distributions, MOST of them fall in the 0-100'ish percent of the average.

Some other things I am realizing, is that every candle regardless of the TF it belongs to it, has an OPEN,High,Low and Close. Very basic and something we all see. I'm thinking also relative to this thread, it has other info that may be obvious to everyone... but it shows 2 BOs and 2 Retracements. With regards to the BO portions, one side is normally larger than the other. So dividing that up into Small BO and Large BO of every candle, one side 'on average' is 2-3 times larger than the other. The distributions for segmenting a bar into small/large looks similar to the ones attached here.

Will post some other ideas later.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DailyBOup_down_Percent.jpg Size: 163 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DailyREup_down_Percent.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #103
  • Dec 2, 2015 12:54am Dec 2, 2015 12:54am
Quoting forrestang
{quote} Some basic gatherings. The two charts attached are the BOs, referencing the idea of the how a wick is created above. So BOs and retracements. The retracements are shown in the other picture. Just from the distributions, MOST of them fall in the 0-100'ish percent of the average. Some other things I am realizing, is that every candle regardless of the TF it belongs to it, has an OPEN,High,Low and Close. Very basic and something we all see. I'm thinking also relative to this thread, it has other info that may be obvious to everyone... but it...
Nice work. You didn't take in account if the bar was bull or bear? Therein lies the difference between wick size I think.
  • #104
  • Dec 2, 2015 1:25am Dec 2, 2015 1:25am
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} Nice work. You didn't take in account if the bar was bull or bear? Therein lies the difference between wick size I think.
Hmmm.... so I've got something similar, and that was the part I mentioned that had tracks the large to small portion of a candle. I.e. that one body/BO is on average a tad shy of 3.5x the other.

I planned on creating metrics strictly for UP vs. DOWN bars(CloseVsOpen), but it may have gotten lost in the other things I was building. I think now that you mention it though, I should put some thought into it.

Also, in thinking about it I wonder if that would be a useful metric? It seems like what we really want is to figure out how to structure a trade, or possibly multiple trades to capture some of that range... I'm not sure why, but intuitively to me it seems like Up vs. Down might not make a difference? Although it could lead to different expectations of short vs. long entries?
  • #105
  • Dec 2, 2015 2:29am Dec 2, 2015 2:29am
Quoting forrestang
{quote} Hmmm.... so I've got something similar, and that was the part I mentioned that had tracks the large to small portion of a candle. I.e. that one body/BO is on average a tad shy of 3.5x the other. I planned on creating metrics strictly for UP vs. DOWN bars(CloseVsOpen), but it may have gotten lost in the other things I was building. I think now that you mention it though, I should put some thought into it. Also, in thinking about it I wonder if that would be a useful metric? It seems like what we really want is to figure out how to structure...
The difference is small but you could find out if the bottom wick is smaller than the top wick in bull bars (or vice versa). And the other way around for bear bars. Not to find out the difference between bull and bear bars but to find out the size of the "SL" wick and the "TP"wick.
  • #106
  • Dec 2, 2015 6:10am Dec 2, 2015 6:10am
regarding wicks and body stats, i'd be interested to see stats on how long it takes rather than only how big it is..e.g. if it took 3 days to complete first wick then realize a break back thru the open.... versus if took 2 hours... the ones that take only a few hours might be interesting to isolate and look at stats wise

cant see any reason why you couldn't make a set n forget using the 1 hour opens or the 4 hour opens as a point in the sand... every time price came through the open door, an ea would take a position with a stop at the previous candles previous low or high..... exit before weeks end, break even at x% atr or something. appears rather plausible. what am i missing? anyone want to code it up and see if it performs
  • #107
  • Dec 3, 2015 1:01pm Dec 3, 2015 1:01pm
I'm seeing some nice work but also flaws in thinking. You are not obliged to hold a trade until the end of the week. If the candle is green (close < open) examine the open - low as opposed to high-open. If the candle is red high-open as to open-low.

"But how do I know when to go long or short when the stats say the distribution of green to red is around 50/50?". Look at the monthly stats I say. Do you know where the ultimate monthly high/low are before the month end? No. Do you know where the open is? Yes. Do you know the stats? Do you want to trade against the stats? Or do you only want to take long traded above the open and short trades below the open?
  • #108
  • Dec 3, 2015 1:37pm Dec 3, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting nunrgguy
{quote} Keep hold of those 2 cents. You'll need them to donate to the market on Monday. Be truthful. You haven't pondered have you?
Compliments to you, you still have this thread going.
  • #109
  • Dec 4, 2015 5:43pm Dec 4, 2015 5:43pm
that should of course have been close > open
  • #110
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:08pm Dec 4, 2015 8:08pm
Quoting nunrgguy
that should of course have been close > open
ZOMG I was so confused by that.
  • #111
  • Dec 5, 2015 12:53pm Dec 5, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting nunrgguy
I'm seeing some nice work but also flaws in thinking. You are not obliged to hold a trade until the end of the week. If the candle is green (close < open) examine the open - low a
My logic was all wrong I suppose.

I was thinking initially one way to look at things would be to take what was your small and long side of a candle, and look to trade with the statistics when price went beyond an average smaller distance, i.e. some percentage of it. Targeting would be some percentage of the average Larger side.

But this isn't a good idea from some of the testing I've done recently.

Will have to put more thought into it.
  • #112
  • Dec 8, 2015 6:54am Dec 8, 2015 6:54am
Nunrgguy,

I've enjoyed your thread thus far. Different way of looking at things for me as I tend to favor longer term trend trading. Look forward to more
  • #113
  • Dec 9, 2015 1:24am Dec 9, 2015 1:24am
Unfortunately my serious health issues have meant that I've spent the last 2 days in bed with man flu,a bottle scotch and a cheap hooker. Long Euro went well, I'm £69 up. She calls me BIG nun because of the costume I make her wear and the size of my endowment.
I'm sure if you trade the rules as presented in post 1 you'll make lots of money.
Can someone take over the thread now, also with a nick starting with nu and expand on things to the point where they know everything about the method that I never dead, because I never intended anything else to be added?
Draw lots more lines and stuff. Add some fibos.
Bound to help
Ta.
  • #114
  • Dec 9, 2015 2:02am Dec 9, 2015 2:02am
Some more thoughts as I think my original ideas need some better logic.

So, if I wanted to trade and specific TF(Weekly for example), how to place trades?

I was thinking that initially I'd just think of the idea of how to trade if I was deciding to ONLY trade long? As I would imagine a similar idea could be applied to the short side later. Primary idea is to figure out WHERE the low risk entries would be on an up candle. Next of importance would be WHERE to exit if you're wrong. Lastly potential profit areas.

We KNOW the OPEN. It's basically the only info we have at the start of each period. So we would be long above, and short below. This makes me think this would be a natural stop as well, as entry would be some point above, the >=25pip exclusion area comes to mind. This is my initial thought of WHERE to exit would be.

For possible entries, plotted distributions (up days only), of the OL and OH BOs on the same plot. This is shown in the first attachment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UpDayRatio.jpg Size: 150 KB



Most of the samples for the OL(blue) on Up Days occur close to zero. The Move that occurs with the main direction of the day are in the green(OH). I was thinking maybe the low risk entry is dependent on the O-L and how large it is? For example, if the week is developing, and you are ABOVE the open, and the CURRENT O-L is 0-25 pips, you'd look at stats for UP DAYS, with a O-L of that distance, and look at the OH distributions. You could do this for any size bottom wick, attaching this one for illustration. This is shown in the second attachment.
Attached Image




Also on picking low risk spots on a candle... if you're looking at an UP Day, you will have a O-L, an O-H, and an O-C that is bullish. IF the day eventually unfolds into a DOWN DAY, your OH would eventually become your Top wick for your downside OL body that is developing. So to that I was wondering if plotting the distribution of that onto the current graph would show another way to safely plot low-risk entry points? This is just the 'Top wick" of a down bar. Pic Below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UpDayRatioDownRE.jpg Size: 160 KB




The OH of a DOWN BAR and the OH of an UP BAR seem to converge somewhere between 150-175 pips for the GU. This # doesn't seem like a good entry spot to me, but maybe its an likely area of price movement even in the case where you are playing long, and the market will eventually form a DOWN BAR.

It's late and this is likely an incoherent explanation, but I might be able to clear it up after some sleep if further discussion is warranted.

So this is all about the UP DAYS for now. All of this analysis this far is using just BO data (OL, OH). I have metrics for Retracements(REs) as well, but haven't figured out how they fit in yet. The BOs are larger. Does one trade EITHER BOs or REs? Are they to be used in combination with one another to profit?

Just some thoughts.
  • #115
  • Dec 9, 2015 6:49am Dec 9, 2015 6:49am
if I presented some completely made up stats such as: over the last 500 bars, when the week ended green, the lower wick was 50 pips or less 50% of the time while the high-open was greater than 50 pips 80% of the time. Could you see the edge?
  • #116
  • Dec 9, 2015 6:58am Dec 9, 2015 6:58am
given the totally made up stats, is the timing of the entry particularly important? Note 'timing' usually means, 'getting in at a worse price'.
It's timing the exit that is important, you know you won't catch all of the range but you want to catch as much of it as possible.
Look at the right things: stats beforehand to see if the basis of your trade makes sense. Trade management afterwards to play your edge.
Don't look at the wrong things (which are usually completely unquantifiable). For instance s/d zones trading with discretionary entries. I.e trading a random price based on a hunch. Can you measure these (PLEASE don't tell me back testing, or even worse, visual back testing).
That euro is up 80 odd now, above the open. Might be able to afford the egg whisk to go with this hooker.
  • #117
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:25am Dec 9, 2015 8:25am
Quoting nunrgguy
given the totally made up stats, is the timing of the entry particularly important? Note 'timing' usually means, 'getting in at a worse price'. It's timing the exit that is important, you know you won't catch all of the range but you want to catch as much of it as possible. Look at the right things: stats beforehand to see if the basis of your trade makes sense. Trade management afterwards to play your edge. Don't look at the wrong things (which are usually completely unquantifiable). For instance s/d zones trading with discretionary entries. I.e...
lol, if we are gonna talk hookers, you cant leave out the wet celery or the flying helmet.
  • #118
  • Dec 9, 2015 9:23am Dec 9, 2015 9:23am
Quoting nunrgguy
if I presented some completely made up stats such as: over the last 500 bars, when the week ended green, the lower wick was 50 pips or less 50% of the time while the high-open was greater than 50 pips 80% of the time. Could you see the edge?
If my sums are correct , then I think you would expect the following results

a) 50% of trades would lose
b) 40% of trades would end up >= 50 pips above the open
c) 10% of trades would end up < 50 pips above the open

so the main edge would be

b) 40% of trades would end up >= 50 pips above the open

regards
atrooster
  • #119
  • Dec 9, 2015 10:32am Dec 9, 2015 10:32am
How are you going to prevent getting whipsawed? Cause you're potentially looking to trade both ways at the weeks open and the potential exists to take you in both ways and out both ways, maybe even a third kick to the sac. Or are you only looking to trade one way all year, either forever the optimist or pessimist.
  • #120
  • Dec 9, 2015 2:12pm Dec 9, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting atrooster
{quote} If my sums are correct , then I think you would expect the following results a) 50% of trades would lose b) 40% of trades would end up >= 50 pips above the open c) 10% of trades would end up < 50 pips above the open so the main edge would be b) 40% of trades would end up >= 50 pips above the open regards atrooster
I did completely make the numbers up btw.

OK.
So given that edge.
You've just seen price trade below the open. It went down 40 pips, then traded back up to the open and crossed it. Which way you gonna trade? Where you gonna place your stop? And why?

Can you lose? Can you get 'whipsawed'. Of course you can.

THAT'S TRADING.
Get used to losing m8y cause in trading you're going to lose more than you win.
Look at the stats then think how you will trade it. with a time limit of 1 week and the period you're looking to hold for how many times do you think it's possible to get whipped?


Maybe some magic 25 pip renko bars will help you see how to trade.

Once you understand just some sweetspot lines on the m1 chart will do ya because that's all renko is anyway.
See open, see price move one way, see price move the other way, is the wick less than the stats? Good, look to trade. See price to trade at, place stop outside of weekly range, trade price. Forget for a while, come back and see how it's doing. Then it is ALL down to LUCK as to how price moves. What matters then is that you are playing your edge and how you manage the trade. If you chicken out for 10 pips you're doomed. If you've the balls to hang on for 100, 200, 300, 400, then give 50 back. You're on the right track.

BTW last time I checked EU was 175 up. Good job I went counter to the stats on trader opinions on FF eh?
I'm riding this hooker ALL night long. German sausage, egg whisk, the LOT.
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