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Trading made simple with added BS

  • #61
  • Nov 24, 2015 9:51am Nov 24, 2015 9:51am
Quoting lugoffohio
@stevepatt, how do u know where the sell stops and buy stops are, what do u use in knowing this?
Hi lugoffohio;

Market Structure -- If you where entering a Trade, ask yourself where would I put my initial Stop Loss where would I trail my Stop Loss.

And that's the obvious places Smart Money go to hunt Stops, they are only interested in the Liquidity these Stops provide.

Like I said before I might be way off the mark when it comes to how NG would be trading it but this is what I would be looking for.

I think it's now down to NG to provide us with his angle on things.
  • #62
  • Nov 24, 2015 9:51am Nov 24, 2015 9:51am
This is an attempt to look at the last 12 weeks of price
data in the GBPUSD. Each week is treated independently.
I'm trying to see what price is doing in each week.
Each week has the previuos weeks close marked with a
blue horizontal line. See image below.
12 weeks isn't a lot,but you've got to start somewhere!

There are three types of weeks:

A. Oscillates then trends
Price oscillates around the previous weeks close
before trending. Examples are weeks 1,3,4,6,7,8,9,10

B. Oscillates only
Price oscillates around the previous weeks close only.
Examples are weeks 5 and 12.

C Trends only
Price doesn't oscillate around the previous weeks close.
It just trends away from it.
Examples are weeks 2 and 11

Just my observations inspired by this thread.

Regards
atrooster

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Last12weeks.JPG Size: 161 KB
  • #63
  • Nov 24, 2015 2:53pm Nov 24, 2015 2:53pm
Forget concepts.
Mainly forget looking at the past, concepts of support, resistance, supply demand levels, trend.

The supply demand thing - what happened in the past,, happened in the past. I can show you level after level that fails just as often as it holds. Yeah 'odds enhancers' lol.

'Supply/demand' imbalance, sounds catchy but do you understand what it really means? It's nothing to do with old price levels.
For price to move 1 pip in either direction there has to be an imbalance of supply/demand otherwise it wouldn't move. Anything apart from that is hokey pokey made up by education sellers.


Trend - another concept. There is no trend to trade, yet there IS a trend to follow, or rather there is a range expansion to follow, once it occurs in the direction you chose to enter, AFTER you enter. What happened before has no bearing whatsoever on what happens after.....with the proviso that SOME information can be gleaned from the past but not neccessarily what you're all focusing on.

The question re what is required for price to move? The answer: time. Think about it.
  • #64
  • Edited 4:02pm Nov 24, 2015 3:48pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting nunrgguy
Forget concepts. Mainly forget looking at the past, concepts of support, resistance, supply demand levels, trend. The supply demand thing - what happened in the past,, happened in the past. I can show you level after level that fails just as often as it holds. Yeah 'odds enhancers' lol. 'Supply/demand' imbalance, sounds catchy but do you understand what it really means? It's nothing to do with old price levels. For price to move 1 pip in either direction there has to be an imbalance of supply/demand otherwise it wouldn't move. Anything apart from...
First of all, did you short GU as I was telling you before your rude remark yesterday evening?
You may have noticed that I was making a prediction Sunday about Monday, which was true. And Monday I made a prediction about Tuesday, which was true.
And I can do it over and over again. I did this because you said you have no idea where price will go, up or down. Well, I do have an idea and I proved already that it IS/WAS a good one. And this idea is based on the existing information, which represents the PAST. What you are saying, that what happened before has no bearing whatsoever on what happens after is an ignorant statement (your provision that what we ALL are focusing on wrong information, is quite narrow minded as well). There are good traders here, some of them showed interest for your thread - you should pay some respect to them and not say such things like "there is some info which can be gleaned from the past but not what you're ALL focusing on". Some of these traders may teach both of us some lessons on trading.

Supply/demand imbalance - some of the traders on this forum understand what it means for sure, trust me. And the imbalance does not appear from thin air.

This is a trading discussion thread, but you seem to be just throwing incorrect statements one after the other. From what I have seen until now you don't know much about trading. Now laugh a bit more.
  • #65
  • Edited 4:35pm Nov 24, 2015 4:21pm | Edited 4:35pm
There once was a child that shouted out that the emperor was wearing no clothes. Everyone laughed.

This was not started as a discussion thread. It was moved to discussion by the mods. Until people start thinking for themselves (and I'm seeing some evidence of that), I'm disclosing NOTHING about the method. Geddit? This isn't a spoon feeding exercise.

So you TOLD me to short GU. Why would I do anything on the demand of a total stranger on a forum. How bizarre.

I must congratulate you though. You can predict the future. Rather you think you can predict the future. Ergo you are an idiot. Go and predict again and again in your own thread and make everyone rich.
I couldn't care less whether you think me rude.
  • #66
  • Nov 24, 2015 4:40pm Nov 24, 2015 4:40pm
For anyone that's remotely interested, and I'm not predicting, I'm presenting something based on stats, GU is currently showing strong downward momentum. It has now reached an area where profit taking may take place but it still has potential to reach somewhere around 1.493.

And SO WHAT! It either will or it won't. It's what YOU do when what IS occurs that matters.
  • #67
  • Nov 24, 2015 5:04pm Nov 24, 2015 5:04pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} This might not be what nunrgguy has in mind. But before the Market can go any where it needs Liquidity. One source of Liquidity is Stop Losses another is triggering false Break Outs where we see the Smart Money accumulating their positions by taking the other side of the Break Out. Remember Forex is a Zero Sum Market if you want to Buy there has to be a Seller and visa versa. Smart Money have to trigger large Orders, against their intended direction, to give them enough Liquidity to fill their Orders without giving the game away, you can...
nice explanation..brother stevepatt.....interesting about liquidity, I'm also use this....Brother nunrgguy....Come on, continue explanation....
Regard, Ding Dong
  • #68
  • Nov 24, 2015 7:07pm Nov 24, 2015 7:07pm
OK Please Correct me if I am wrong,

This is a trading method -post29
Its a high probability method -post2

In very basic terms-(I am assuming all definitions about TF S/R Ext. are understood)

With this method- we are going to trade the weekly open or breakout- (and or) - catch the weekly extreme and trade the retrace.
By weekly I mean trade price within the confines of the current week. All trades will be opened and closed within the week.

With this method- we will close trades 1- thought price was hitting statistical extremes for the speed it was moving over the recent periods.
2- The market was coming to a close

This is very interesting- trading what IS brings many questions. how do you trade the break out or the extreme retrace? Are you looking in the past to make some of these decisions? Or let me ask how do you make these entry decisions with the WHAT IS method?

Regards
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #69
  • Nov 25, 2015 12:36am Nov 25, 2015 12:36am
the quip about it being high probability: if you read my profile page you will understand
  • #70
  • Nov 25, 2015 12:40am Nov 25, 2015 12:40am
Quoting iamsovereign
OK Please Correct me if I am wrong, This is a trading method -post29 Its a high probability method -post2 In very basic terms-(I am assuming all definitions about TF S/R Ext. are understood) With this method- we are going to trade the weekly open or breakout- (and or) - catch the weekly extreme and trade the retrace. By weekly I mean trade price within the confines of the current week. All trades will be opened and closed within the week. With this method- we will close trades 1- thought price was hitting statistical extremes for the speed it was...
You're on the right track. Can we use past information, yes, do we read tea-leaves? It's difficult not to given our training and biases but.....
Anyway, still not being pondered: for price to move requires time???
  • #71
  • Nov 25, 2015 12:50am Nov 25, 2015 12:50am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
The fact is we can see from past OHLC data that a very high percentage of the time price moves from open. It is the same whatever time-frame you choose (m1,h1,h6, d1,d2). So given time we know that price is going to move at some point. How much? Who knows for sure but OHLC data can give us a rough idea of what to expect.
I mean how often do you expect a h1 GU candle to move over 100 pips?

Also price movement is not just open to close. It is Open to High or Open to Low as well. All can be pulled from OHLC data to help you understand how price moves.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #72
  • Nov 25, 2015 1:12am Nov 25, 2015 1:12am
Quoting atrooster
This is an attempt to look at the last 12 weeks of price data in the GBPUSD. Each week is treated independently. I'm trying to see what price is doing in each week. Each week has the previuos weeks close marked with a blue horizontal line. See image below. 12 weeks isn't a lot,but you've got to start somewhere! There are three types of weeks: A. Oscillates then trends Price oscillates around the previous weeks close before trending. Examples are weeks 1,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 B. Oscillates only Price oscillates around the previous weeks close only. Examples...
Good work and good line of thinking.
  • #73
  • Nov 25, 2015 1:13am Nov 25, 2015 1:13am
Quoting Neio
The fact is we can see from past OHLC data that a very high percentage of the time price moves from open. It is the same whatever time-frame you choose (m1,h1,h6, d1,d2). So given time we know that price is going to move at some point. How much? Who knows for sure but OHLC data can give us a rough idea of what to expect. I mean how often do you expect a h1 GU candle to move over 100 pips? Also price movement is not just open to close. It is Open to High or Open to Low as well. All can be pulled from OHLC data to help you understand how price moves....
Great stuff, i.e. using a few basic statistics to make a map of what is likely or unlikely to happen from now until the end of the period we are considering.

If it is 5.30pm on a Thursday on a normal trading week, we are not expecting price to move 300 pips in our favour come close Friday.

Thanks Neio: I've just looked up your thread, only read post one but it looks like we're running for the same rail operator.
  • #74
  • Edited 1:37am Nov 25, 2015 1:27am | Edited 1:37am
I've done some research lately regarding ohlc ratio's. I wouldn't call them statistics because I'm not qualified. Anyway, I've found that on average and all "timeframes" the ratio of an average candle is 2 wicks, both of around 25%, so the body being near 50%. One of the thoughts that I have was to wait for price to move 25% of the range in one direction, wait till price reverses and then trade the open. Problem is that it's on average and the average human being has 1 tit and 1 ball.
  • #75
  • Nov 25, 2015 2:25am Nov 25, 2015 2:25am
Everything is past, by the moment your tick is received to your platform, its a past. Who trades on the now? Nobody. In forex, there is no present. Present is different at different places. And is already a past by the time you observe it.
  • #76
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:26am Nov 25, 2015 7:26am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting nunrgguy
{quote} Great stuff, i.e. using a few basic statistics to make a map of what is likely or unlikely to happen from now until the end of the period we are considering. If it is 5.30pm on a Thursday on a normal trading week, we are not expecting price to move 300 pips in our favour come close Friday. Thanks Neio: I've just looked up your thread, only read post one but it looks like we're running for the same rail operator.
Hi Nunrgguy,

Yes I believe we are. I understood what you were driving at from your first couple of posts in this thread but kept quiet as I wanted to see how it would develop.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #77
  • Nov 25, 2015 9:09am Nov 25, 2015 9:09am
Quoting Neio
The fact is we can see from past OHLC data that a very high percentage of the time price moves from open. It is the same whatever time-frame you choose (m1,h1,h6, d1,d2). So given time we know that price is going to move at some point. How much? Who knows for sure but OHLC data can give us a rough idea of what to expect. I mean how often do you expect a h1 GU candle to move over 100 pips? Also price movement is not just open to close. It is Open to High or Open to Low as well. All can be pulled from OHLC data to help you understand how price moves....
Finally you are spilling it out, what took you so long bro. Please continue.
  • #78
  • Nov 25, 2015 2:32pm Nov 25, 2015 2:32pm
Can we please incorporate cats this time too
  • #79
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:10pm Nov 25, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting nunrgguy
For anyone that's remotely interested, and I'm not predicting, I'm presenting something based on stats, GU is currently showing strong downward momentum. It has now reached an area where profit taking may take place but it still has potential to reach somewhere around 1.493. And SO WHAT! It either will or it won't. It's what YOU do when what IS occurs that matters.

So based on your trade parameters are you currently managing a position short because you saw what you wanted to see from the open or were tagged into a trade because of a pending order. Or are you now short because of the momentum and targeting 1.493 until u get there or price says to fold?
  • #80
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:35pm Nov 25, 2015 3:35pm
I'm not in a trade atm.
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