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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #12,941
  • Nov 23, 2015 6:37am Nov 23, 2015 6:37am
Quoting raiders
{quote} Ray... Most recently ive been using the numbers from week 36 as my reference points. They seem to hold up nicely. Prior to you coming back recently I had been using a set from week 15. Although they are similar, they do differ slightly and yet both sets have many of the same DP Zones as I like to refer to them as. Anyways, I was wondering what variable in your math causes a change in these DPs? For instance, you have 186.88/75 and 186.38/25 as a current zones and the numbers i am using are 186.60/40. Now when I placed my buy and sl on friday...
thats a good question raiders, Ill try to answer.
The variables in math causes the change in these DPs are range-expansion, volatility and price.

Lets assume we have a uptrend and a range expansion the the upside. Now as soon as the new high is printed, support is following depending on where the high is made. Orderflow-wise it means traders chasing their bid up depending on that high. If you check the pic you may have a good illustration.

Hope that helps.
Attached Image
  • #12,942
  • Nov 23, 2015 6:39am Nov 23, 2015 6:39am
Quoting Hickson
H4 between Ray's DPs now. Already loaded one very small on the first bonce. Looking to add here if the zone is positive, but only small as well. {image}
yep current it 186.38/25; if holds long tp 187.25/13
  • #12,943
  • Nov 23, 2015 6:49am Nov 23, 2015 6:49am
Former H4 low is not far away. Good enough for me to wait for the uptrend to resume.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 6 KB
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,944
  • Nov 23, 2015 7:26am Nov 23, 2015 7:26am
It is good to have other things to do on days like these. Unless one is a scalper, there is really nothing to do.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,945
  • Edited 7:53am Nov 23, 2015 7:34am | Edited 7:53am
Quoting Hickson
It is good to have other things to do on days like these. Unless one is a scalper, there is really nothing to do.
just rejected 186.38/25 again. Also noticed you enter before DP gets printed, I think you should practise to wait until a level is printed actually.

Add: if we see a decent take out of 186.88/75, we should see continuation. Check pic. (today's profile)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM1.png Size: 134 KB
  • #12,946
  • Nov 23, 2015 7:36am Nov 23, 2015 7:36am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} today just rejected 186.38/25 again. Also noticed you enter before DP gets printed, I think you should practise to wait until a level is printed actually.
The entry was a bit early indeed, after 186.38 got rejected first. Would have been better to wait for the hourly to close, even though scaling in with tiny bits.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,947
  • Nov 23, 2015 9:45am Nov 23, 2015 9:45am
Testing this support now ...
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,948
  • Nov 23, 2015 9:57am Nov 23, 2015 9:57am
almost there

while driving to home i hope to get my order filled
Attached Image
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #12,949
  • Nov 23, 2015 10:05am Nov 23, 2015 10:05am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} thats a good question raiders, Ill try to answer. The variables in math causes the change in these DPs are range-expansion, volatility and price. Lets assume we have a uptrend and a range expansion the the upside. Now as soon as the new high is printed, support is following depending on where the high is made. Orderflow-wise it means traders chasing their bid up depending on that high. If you check the pic you may have a good illustration. Hope that helps. {image}
that makes sense thank you.

what do you use to determine the trend? weather up or down? obviously we are in a much much greater up trend which I believe will continue in the near future but with the recent break of the channel, recent consolidation and resumption of support failure the short term trend has shifted to the downside for me. Would your numbers need to be adjusted for this recent short term change?


BTW i am now aiming for 185.5(atr based off of break), 184ish(50 fib) and if it really gets funky 182.6ish(based off of week 36 numbers)
  • #12,950
  • Nov 23, 2015 10:08am Nov 23, 2015 10:08am
Quoting Ll1979
almost there while driving to home i hope to get my order filled {image}
It got filled
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,951
  • Edited 10:52am Nov 23, 2015 10:41am | Edited 10:52am
Quoting raiders
{quote} that makes sense thank you. what do you use to determine the trend? weather up or down? obviously we are in a much much greater up trend which I believe will continue in the near future but with the recent break of the channel, recent consolidation and resumption of support failure the short term trend has shifted to the downside for me. Would your numbers need to be adjusted for this recent short term change? BTW i am now aiming for 185.5(atr based off of break), 184ish(50 fib) and if it really gets funky 182.6ish(based off of week 36 numbers)...
On the weekly profiles I dont consider short-term moves because it wouldnt change data dramatically anyway. Some swing are made in less time, some swings are needed more time, thats also an important aspect to consider. The less time a swing needs to develope, the higher the probability retracement is larger than a swing that took more time to develope.

I watch the daily and look for new swing highs, if yes its an uptrend, technically. Fundamentals and technical needs to coincede.
Whenever I see sell-off daily I know these are failed buy-signals (buyers had to cover). So by definition there are no sell-signals at all, either a buy-signal that works or fails.

Anyway, you may use this DP's for this week.
  • #12,952
  • Nov 23, 2015 10:51am Nov 23, 2015 10:51am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} On the weekly profiles I dont consider short-term moves because it wouldnt change data dramatically anyway. Some swing are made in less time, some swings are needed more time, thats also a important aspect to consider. The less time a swing need to develope, the higher the probability retracement is larger than a swing that took more time to develope. I watch the daily and look for new swing highs, if yes its an uptrend, technically. Fundamentals and technical needs to coincede. Whenever I see sell-off daily I know these are failed buy-signals...
makes sense. thanks for the explanation
  • #12,953
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:15am Nov 23, 2015 11:15am
trying a long here filled at 186.08​
  • #12,954
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:16am Nov 23, 2015 11:16am
Quoting raiders
{quote} makes sense. thanks for the explanation
Dont mention it.

Quote:

"10. A buy signal that fails is a sell signal. A sell signal that fails is a
buy signal. [...]

There had been an important "buy signal" that was well publicized. When the "buy" turned out
to be wrong, it was a great "sell" trade. The sell side was easy to get on, and pretty much never
had a draw down. When I reviewed the market top on my charts several weeks later I looked for
"what technical signal" would have given me a reason for doing the trade to the sell side. There
wasn't any special signal in the market action that I could find, it just turned and went straight
down."

- PRINCIPALS AND PSYCHOLOGY OF DAY TRADING
  • #12,955
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:32am Nov 23, 2015 11:32am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} It got filled
let 's see of those numbers mean something or it might be a quick dragon ride
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #12,956
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:44am Nov 23, 2015 11:44am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} let 's see of those numbers mean something or it might be a quick dragon ride
Not looking so good 2/3 s/o, the other one hanging on by a tiny bit. So I am done at - 1 % now, maybe I get a chance to get back in on Wednesday or tomorrow evening.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,957
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:46am Nov 23, 2015 11:46am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Dont mention it. Quote: "10. A buy signal that fails is a sell signal. A sell signal that fails is a buy signal. [...] There had been an important "buy signal" that was well publicized. When the "buy" turned out to be wrong, it was a great "sell" trade. The sell side was easy to get on, and pretty much never had a draw down. When I reviewed the market top on my charts several weeks later I looked for "what technical signal" would have given me a reason for doing the trade to the sell side. There wasn't any special signal in the market...
slezak
when i remember to i go over the rules for a refresher. when i remember to that is lol
  • #12,958
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:50am Nov 23, 2015 11:50am
the dang commodities insist on tanking.....Tuesday may help that.....they just can't go down much more

Countries do strange things with the banks that really are like cheating.....waiting for a seasonal " FIX " to do the deal with the bank ( like citi ) and lock in a price. the banks pay out ....and crap can thusly continue. I haven't figured out exactly who ends up footing the bill but I suppose it's the people....little people.
  • #12,959
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:52am Nov 23, 2015 11:52am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Dont mention it. Quote: "10. A buy signal that fails is a sell signal. A sell signal that fails is a buy signal. [...] There had been an important "buy signal" that was well publicized. When the "buy" turned out to be wrong, it was a great "sell" trade. The sell side was easy to get on, and pretty much never had a draw down. When I reviewed the market top on my charts several weeks later I looked for "what technical signal" would have given me a reason for doing the trade to the sell side. There wasn't any special signal in the market...
Yes, it sometimes happens. On D1 this is still noise though.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,960
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:55am Nov 23, 2015 11:55am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Not looking so good 2/3 s/o, the other one hanging on by a tiny bit. So I am done at - 1 % now, maybe I get a chance to get back in on Wednesday or tomorrow evening.
I am risking 0,5% with a SL @ 185,80. When hit i go back to the drawingboard to look for other opportunities.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
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