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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #16,001
  • Nov 20, 2015 2:08pm Nov 20, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting deltaone
long @17802,8 sl -20 tp +60
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #16,002
  • Nov 20, 2015 2:29pm Nov 20, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote}
risk -> sl to be
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #16,003
  • Nov 20, 2015 2:43pm Nov 20, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} risk -> sl to be
sl to +10
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #16,004
  • Nov 20, 2015 2:57pm Nov 20, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} sl to +10
sl hit. +10
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #16,005
  • Edited Nov 30, 2015 9:57pm Nov 22, 2015 12:30am | Edited Nov 30, 2015 9:57pm
Just a couple of thoughts to start this week.

1. Dax is at an Avg PE ratio of 15.54. SP500 is near 21.70.

2. A friend sent me the first chart, and I think we may move into the apex around 11,450-11,500 by middle of December 2015. FOMC meeting for Feds Fund rate is on 17 December 2015, so pencil that day for a market move. If they hike, expect global equities to drop, but mainly the US market.

3. 13 April 2015 was the Dax high, which was when the EURUSD sank to 1.052. We must be mindful, as the EURUSD heads lower we may see the Dax head higher, but having said that, the VW scandal has wiped EU40Bn from its market capitalisation, and this roughly wipes out 370-400pts from the Dax.

4. Now another interesting set of charts that are important also, is the Dax30 tracking the Gann Fans from the start of each new bull cycle (second chart). As you can see, the market always breaks below the 1x1.5 line and tracks that over the last 3 boom cycles and never breaks above the 1x1 line. In this bull cycle, refer to chart 3, the market has broken back above the 1x1, and we have a year end upper target of 11,365 on this chart.

So what I'm trying to say with all of this, is that we are probably going into risky territory north of of the 1x1 Gann fan and 11,365 before Year End; UNLESS the EUR tanks further, and then its quite possible for the Dax to go higher again. Goldmans have been bearish on the EUR since the start of the year, they are expecting 0.95 in Q1 2016. I'm not sure of this though.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,006
  • Nov 23, 2015 1:57am Nov 23, 2015 1:57am
Quoting PariCovek
Just a couple of thoughts to start this week. 1. Dax is at an Avg PE ratio of 15.54. SP500 is near 21.70. 2. A friend sent me the first chart, and I think we may move into the apex around 11,450-11,500 by middle of December 2015. FOMC meeting for Feds Fund rate is on 17 December 2015, so pencil that day for a market move. If they hike, expect global equities to drop, but mainly the US market. 3. 13 April 2015 was the Dax high, which was when the EURUSD sank to 1.052. We must be mindful, as the EURUSD heads lower we may see the Dax head higher, but...

GM - thanks for an interesting an thought provoking post

Dax has now moved back inside the daily channel on the chart that I posted on Page795 #15,895 and is heading for the 61.8% retrace of its August fall at 11,215. Recently the 61.8% level has been in play - on Friday it hit its 5m chart expansion at the 1.618 level - Friday's high and then retraced 61.8% its afternoon's low at 11093.....

Above, the Daily 76% retrace is at 11,667 and Dax frequently hits this level......TWT - and now for XO....

PS Overnight € tested its 1.0600 level last seen in April....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #16,007
  • Nov 23, 2015 2:15am Nov 23, 2015 2:15am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dax.png Size: 39 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #16,008
  • Nov 23, 2015 2:30am Nov 23, 2015 2:30am
If the US market drops more than others will this not have an impact on EUR/USD i.e. it stabilises or moves up as US money moves to Europe
  • #16,009
  • Nov 23, 2015 2:30am Nov 23, 2015 2:30am
Quoting PariCovek
Just a couple of thoughts to start this week. 1. Dax is at an Avg PE ratio of 15.54. SP500 is near 21.70. 2. A friend sent me the first chart, and I think we may move into the apex around 11,450-11,500 by middle of December 2015. FOMC meeting for Feds Fund rate is on 17 December 2015, so pencil that day for a market move. If they hike, expect global equities to drop, but mainly the US market. 3. 13 April 2015 was the Dax high, which was when the EURUSD sank to 1.052. We must be mindful, as the EURUSD heads lower we may see the Dax head higher, but...
That is the week that options expire for the last quarter of 2015 for both DAX and SP500. They actually expire on the 18th..
  • #16,010
  • Nov 23, 2015 2:32am Nov 23, 2015 2:32am
good german data but dax doesnt go up weird..
  • #16,011
  • Nov 23, 2015 3:03am Nov 23, 2015 3:03am
Quoting letscry
good german data but dax doesnt go up weird..
Buy rumor, sell the fact
Stop going for the easy buck
  • #16,012
  • Nov 23, 2015 3:21am Nov 23, 2015 3:21am
Quoting letscry
good german data but dax doesnt go up weird..
It was typical profit taking on the Dax, and when its just profit taking, the selling I find usually finishes around the 20 minute mark after XO... If its a news event driven price drop, then it can sell constantly during the day. Its sort of a rough rule I've found with the Dax, and usually I find that the first 3 mins after XO I can usually tell if its going lower or about to head higher... really depending on how its responding to the 7sma, 20sma and 200sma on 1m.
  • #16,013
  • Nov 23, 2015 3:31am Nov 23, 2015 3:31am
I've just been told that Classic FM is saying that today is National Fibonacci Day - thanks Dr Scalpaal - and Dax just hit 61.8 retrace of Friday's range - I closed my last long +20 on trailing SL....

PS € turning back down helped
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #16,014
  • Nov 23, 2015 3:34am Nov 23, 2015 3:34am
Quoting letscry
good german data but dax doesnt go up weird..
Because we need bad numbers for the invisible hand to intervene and start buying. QE kicks in on bad news lol..
  • #16,015
  • Nov 23, 2015 3:52am Nov 23, 2015 3:52am
Quoting Islander
I've just been told that Classic FM is saying that today is National Fibonacci Day - thanks Dr Scalpaal - and Dax just hit 61.8 retrace of Friday's range - I closed my last long +20 on trailing SL.... PS turning back down helped
CG to points.
What a silly was of me.. to let go +20 to BE... As you said, dax hit 61.8... but I really thought it will make higher... really bad idea :/

Will you post 15sec chart today?
  • #16,016
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:03am Nov 23, 2015 4:03am
morning, longs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only constant is change
  • #16,017
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:05am Nov 23, 2015 4:05am
Quoting nuckern
{quote} CG to points. What a silly was of me.. to let go +20 to BE... As you said, dax hit 61.8... but I really thought it will make higher... really bad idea :/ Will you post 15sec chart today?
Did you also notice that Dax has just bounced up off the .76 retrace of today's range? I took a buy and now have SL +10

Have to go out, so SL +10 OCO +30....

Edit: SL +20 OCO +30
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #16,018
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:12am Nov 23, 2015 4:12am
Quoting littspaniard
morning, longs {image}
closed three, +54
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-23_111122.png Size: 15 KB
The only constant is change
  • #16,019
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:13am Nov 23, 2015 4:13am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Did you also notice that Dax has just bounced up off the .76 retrace of today's range? I took a buy and now have SL +10 Have to go out, so SL +10 OCO +30.... Edit: SL +20 OCO +30
Out +20 on SL - must run....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #16,020
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:24am Nov 23, 2015 4:24am
DAX cash
PP 11104.5
R1 11171.0
R2 11231.0
S1 11044.5
S2 10978.0
S3 10918.0
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