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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,241
  • Nov 17, 2015 6:16pm Nov 17, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
For Monday, I'm doing CAT (high IVR/high IV) post-earnings via short strangle (Dec 31 63/76) and looking for a 1.65 credit. I'll also look at HD and WMT to see whether I should put something on before Monday NY close, since they announce earnings on Tuesday before market open. I looked at an HD short strangle (Nov 27 113/127); looks like there will be at least a 1.15+ credit there; the 1 SD WMT short strangle setup (same expiry) ain't looking so hot, with a credit of .57 for the 53/59.5, so I'll probably pass on that.
No fill on the CAT; passed on WMT (premium too little).

Filled HD Nov 27 113/126 short strangle for 1.34; post-earnings, the short put is nearing worthless, but price is right at the short call.
Filled TGT Nov 27 Nov 27 66.5/80 short strangle for .81 (earnings tomorrow before market open) (not sure what I was smoking; I usually only go for plays that are 1.00 credit +).

Tomorrow: CRM Nov 27 69/86 short strangle; looking for a fill for 1.32.
GMCR Nov 27 31/49.5 short strangle; looking for 1.85.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,242
  • Nov 18, 2015 11:28am Nov 18, 2015 11:28am
Quoting The Fool
not looking too good w/ BTFD inevitably under way, I will probably get stuck right in the middle of SPY DD's with expiries this week....c'est la vie....
paper profits come & gone, I held on for glory, got nothing....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,243
  • Nov 18, 2015 11:37am Nov 18, 2015 11:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} paper profits come & gone, I held on for glory, got nothing....
I shorted the FOMC "spike"... SL @ BE now, small position (short NQ @ 4631). Looking to close around 4600+, for like 25 points.

Thinking about some ES call spreads to sell


Addon - got stopped at BE on the mofo... had about 8, maybe 9 points... wanted more.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,244
  • Nov 18, 2015 11:57am Nov 18, 2015 11:57am
Quoting The Fool
paper profits come & gone, I held on for glory, got nothing....
doubling down on long vol - super bear style - selling UVXY Jan puts, $21/19....for 85c...no fillee
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,245
  • Nov 18, 2015 12:07pm Nov 18, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting The Fool
doubling down on long vol - super bear style - selling UVXY Jan puts, $21/19....for 85c...no fillee
I wouldn't do any kind of cheap credit spread on this pos, nothing under $0.75, because the spreads are so shitty you might not be able to get out for under 10-15c...

SPY $7 run in 3 days, another epic bounce underway (?) ....if it will make $210+ by Friday I will make a little on calls end of SPY DD's...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,246
  • Edited 1:58pm Nov 18, 2015 1:47pm | Edited 1:58pm
Quoting The Fool
doubling down on long vol - super bear style - selling UVXY Jan puts, $21/19....for 85c...no fillee
no fill on UVXY, prolly better wait anyway but the trick there is to catch it before the iv bleeds out massively and the credit on the verts goes to shit......also tried to fill a Dec2/Dec SPY calls diag $215/216 for 7c - nope....if SnP keeps melting up the SPY calls iv will erode and spreads will cheapen.....cheap is good
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,247
  • Nov 18, 2015 4:34pm Nov 18, 2015 4:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} No fill on the CAT; passed on WMT (premium too little). Filled HD Nov 27 113/126 short strangle for 1.34; post-earnings, the short put is nearing worthless, but price is right at the short call. Filled TGT Nov 27 Nov 27 66.5/80 short strangle for .81 (earnings tomorrow before market open) (not sure what I was smoking; I usually only go for plays that are 1.00 credit +). Tomorrow: CRM Nov 27 69/86 short strangle; looking for a fill for 1.32. GMCR Nov 27 31/49.5 short strangle; looking for 1.85.
Got out of the HD short put for a .05 debit, but price is hanging on to that 126 level (sure, it had to be right where my short call was at ... .).

Settled for a 1.09 credit for the CRM and 1.30 for the GMCR ... . Broad market vol crush didn't help getting filled for juicier ... .

Tearing off some of these problematic index ETF iron condors that I rolled after getting caught in the October upmove tomorrow to free up the buying power and moving on ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,248
  • Edited 7:54pm Nov 18, 2015 7:36pm | Edited 7:54pm
UVXY Jan $22/20 short vert puts went on last Friday for 68c credit when UVXY was $35.85..........UVXY closed today $28.92.....trade is in profit about a nickel.....the miracle of iv....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,249
  • Nov 19, 2015 1:05am Nov 19, 2015 1:05am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Personally, I can't imagine how the Soz juggles 100+ trades at any given time; I've got 30+ on, and it seems like a load ... .
I can put on a lot but not 100, anyway I am settled into indices & vix products, risk-on/risk-off, same old shit different week/month.......I try to get interested in ER trades and some other things sometimes but just not enough hours in the day....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,250
  • Nov 19, 2015 3:18pm Nov 19, 2015 3:18pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Settled for a 1.09 credit for the CRM and 1.30 for the GMCR ....
huge pop for GMCR - >$51 during the day, I see, but looks like your short calls could be safe, hope it doesn't end up being a nail-biter....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,251
  • Nov 19, 2015 5:05pm Nov 19, 2015 5:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Got out of the HD short put for a .05 debit, but price is hanging on to that 126 level (sure, it had to be right where my short call was at ... .). Settled for a 1.09 credit for the CRM and 1.30 for the GMCR ... . Broad market vol crush didn't help getting filled for juicier ... . Tearing off some of these problematic index ETF iron condors that I rolled after getting caught in the October upmove tomorrow to free up the buying power and moving on ... .
In and out of the CRM and TGT for 50% max; will bail on the GMCR short put (worth <.05 as of market close) tomorrow. Price is now about 1.50 below my call strike, and I've got until next Friday (same Friday as announcement is too hairy). We'll see how that goes ... .

HD price is less than a buck above my 126 short call (Nov 27th expiry); scratch for that side is fine, but more would be nice ... .

This is what's left in the earnings calendar that I figure will be worthwhile due to the price of the underlying ($50+ in most cases):

DE (IVR/IV 72/40), announces on 11/25 before market open (this is the only play I can see being worthwhile for next week).
MDT (IVR/IV 49/22), announces on 12/3 before market open (doesn't look very volatile right now).
COST (IVR/IV 39/22) announces on 12/8 after market close (again, not very volatile at the moment).
ADBE (IVR/IV 49/31) announces on 12/10 after market close (not currently volatile).
LULU (IVR/IV 87/53) "estimated" to be announced on 12/10 at the moment (this is one that I think is currently playable due to the high IVR/high IV, but I'm going to wait for the actual announcement).
NKE (IVR/IV 76/31) "estimated" to be announced on 12/17.


Not many toys left to play with in the sandbox .... . 'Course there is that whole possible rate hike thing coming up ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,252
  • Nov 19, 2015 5:10pm Nov 19, 2015 5:10pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I can put on a lot but not 100, anyway I am settled into indices & vix products, risk-on/risk-off, same old shit different week/month.......I try to get interested in ER trades and some other things sometimes but just not enough hours in the day....
Simple is good ... .

In an ideal world, I'd only play SPY and TLT or /ES and /ZB ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,253
  • Nov 19, 2015 7:27pm Nov 19, 2015 7:27pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Simple is good ... . In an ideal world, I'd only play SPY and TLT or /ES and /ZB ... .
I used to feel that way about TLT-/ZB, but I hit a losing streak on ir derivatives - could not get on the right side of any moves, got tired of losing $....will come back to them I suppose........
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,254
  • Nov 20, 2015 2:13pm Nov 20, 2015 2:13pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
.... . 'Course there is that whole possible rate hike thing coming up ... .
...expectations are pretty jelled for a Dec FOMC ffr hike.....if there are exogenous events between now and 12/16 that derail those assumed Fed plans, or if they just don't come through....then we finish the year on yet another "uncertain" note, which I expect would be bad news for the equity markets. .... idk, seems like the Fed has promised a first baby ffr hike for Xmas, so if they don't come thru this time, it'll be a WTF?!? moment.....re: "exogenous events"....well, sure, but how do you trade that? One thing that comes to mind is a showdown between Obama and Congress over the "refugee scare"......then there's some kind of surprise from OPEC after the end of Dec1.....most likely I spec is more BTFD continuation, a chance to get some fat on the books b4 the end of the year with new ath's for all of the big 3....

...anyway, my Jan UVXY $22 short put legs are gonna be a headache if the latter case be true...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,255
  • Nov 20, 2015 4:30pm Nov 20, 2015 4:30pm
Out of the GMCR put side for .05, and the call side for 50% max.

HD is being a pain; price testing my short 126 call by some measure (price bumped up to $130 by close), so, in all likelihood, a roll early next week. All in all, with this earnings season coming to a close, not a bad season -- still working IBM and YUM to scratch. HD will likely join that crew ... .

At the very least, Dec FOMC will be entertaining. I've read a number of dickhead articles about how the bull market is "back on" and such, but a stronger dollar will only add pain to the sectors/underlyings with the greatest exposure to foreign markets and to interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. So any kind of rate hike is likely to be a mixed bag for the market and not all rainbows and unicorns for everyone.

At this point, kinda kicking myself for not taking a spot forex position in EURUSD on that last run up to 1.14, particularly with Draghi jawboning about further easing. That FXE is just one plain ass shitty instrument for playing EURUSD ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,256
  • Nov 20, 2015 4:35pm Nov 20, 2015 4:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I used to feel that way about TLT-/ZB, but I hit a losing streak on ir derivatives - could not get on the right side of any moves, got tired of losing $....will come back to them I suppose........
My thing about TLT is that the vast majority of the time, it's simply not volatile enough to make for worthwhile premium selling ... . TBT is not that much better (although the good thing there is it's cheaper, so ties up less buying power, but then again, it's less liquid).

Managed to scrounge up two premium selling plays for next week -- DE (earnings play) and SCTY (high IV/IVR). I'll only put on that SCTY short strangle if I can get a 1.00 credit or more; otherwise just gonna play DE ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,257
  • Nov 20, 2015 4:38pm Nov 20, 2015 4:38pm
Could anyone here recommend me a honest Options/Binary broker for EU? I wanna try options..never tried yet...I'm looking for a broker who handles monthly touch or may be weekly.. Not interested in UP/DOWN closing..just interested in one touch...
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #11,258
  • Nov 20, 2015 5:14pm Nov 20, 2015 5:14pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... At the very least, Dec FOMC will be entertaining. I've read a number of dickhead articles about how the bull market is "back on" and such, but a stronger dollar will only add pain to the sectors/underlyings with the greatest exposure to foreign markets and to interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. So any kind of rate hike is likely to be a mixed bag for the market and not all rainbows and unicorns for everyone...
yeah, no shit - let's send fiber to parity or lower and see what the em's and petrostates think about a long season of Papa Dollah strength and <$35 oil. All my Dec/Jan VXX & UVXY spreads bled out all over my accounts this week, but they're not required to do what they gonna do til it be time to do it to it.....so fuck it, I need a drink....

Quoting ZebraSquirl
... At this point, kinda kicking myself for not taking a spot forex position in EURUSD on that last run up to 1.14, particularly with Draghi jawboning about further easing. That FXE is just one plain ass shitty instrument for playing EURUSD ... .
FXE sucks
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,259
  • Nov 20, 2015 5:17pm Nov 20, 2015 5:17pm
Quoting Goldflake
Could anyone here recommend me a honest Options/Binary broker for EU? I wanna try options..never tried yet...I'm looking for a broker who handles monthly touch or may be weekly.. Not interested in UP/DOWN closing..just interested in one touch...
I have thought about playing with binaries, might if I ever run out of other shit to do......these guys look like they might be OK....

http://www.cantorexchange.com/?code=hsx
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,260
  • Nov 20, 2015 7:58pm Nov 20, 2015 7:58pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=567068

there ya go, ZS....the Earth's wobble still working....meanwhile natgas looking for new lows, UNG settling in under 9 bucks, crikey, sooner or later a bottompicker's gonna catch a break....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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