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  • #11,221
  • Nov 14, 2015 11:07pm Nov 14, 2015 11:07pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yes, agreed, absolutely... This is for good stocks, where BTFD-ers will react, like AAPL dips... My list is less than 15 names, maybe even under 10. A bit hard to type anything, with a 3 yr old in the lap...
You're pretty much right about that. I seem to play the same things every season; some stuff is just too beaten down to play for decent credit even though it's a "major name" and other stuff is just too big for me to be comfortable with (looked mighty hard at that PCLN; just couldn't bring myself to take the plunge).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,222
  • Nov 14, 2015 11:20pm Nov 14, 2015 11:20pm
well it will be interesting to see what the markets say come Monday. If there's gonna be any kind of revival of a Santa rally, it needs to start rolling soon. Meanwhile. I need a dip below SPY $200 into the mid/late week to score some g's for the old folks fund....

....solid rain day here, football & naptime.....heavenly....I am setting up new trade journals in OneNote - do ya'll ever use it?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,223
  • Nov 15, 2015 1:14am Nov 15, 2015 1:14am
Quoting The Fool
I am setting up new trade journals in OneNote - do ya'll ever use it?
....just learning it myself this weekend, will post a page or two - if any have ideas about OneNote or journal setup, please comment
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,224
  • Edited 2:22am Nov 15, 2015 2:00am | Edited 2:22am
I need to get into the habit of writing up trades when they are initiated, making notes as they progress, etc. OneNote is a good way because I can insert images, spreadsheet snippets, video and/or audio, etc. Lots of ideas I have not gotten into yet include overall portfolio management, performance tracking, .... the data is all there but it needs to be set up so I don't really have to do anything except type in some notes....lotsa work and will be nice to get it done....someday.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,225
  • Nov 15, 2015 3:06pm Nov 15, 2015 3:06pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,226
  • Nov 16, 2015 7:50am Nov 16, 2015 7:50am
Quoting Cecil Gee
hi all been a while, making a lot less trades but focusing on better quality of trades which means longer waits for the set ups, currently I'm looking to take a 6 week strangle on DAL delta airline price is just under $50 so a single strike either side should cost just under $2 and looking for a $4 move in this stock in the next few weeks
DAL is on its way

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)
-NYSE
47.53 1.46(2.98%) 15:49 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #11,227
  • Nov 16, 2015 8:21am Nov 16, 2015 8:21am
Quoting The Fool
...OneNote is a good way because I can insert images, spreadsheet snippets, video and/or audio, etc. ... {image}
Looks interesting. I still make a "diary" type of trading journal, archiving trades and ideas... Describing to myself what I did...
Often in hand written style, and saving preentscrins with setups on PC.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,228
  • Nov 16, 2015 10:12am Nov 16, 2015 10:12am
Quoting StrayDog
Looks interesting. I still make a "diary" type of trading journal
The next step for me is to figure out how to dump data from various trading platforms into EXCEL, so I can set up trade logs that automatically populate with a variety of data....one thing there's no shortage of in options trading is data.....you can learn a lot by crunching numbers in various ways....then, again, there's something to be said for keeping it simple. At the least, though, I like to have notebooks with all my trades in one place....using OneNote and going digital with that is an improvement over actual paper notebooks, which get lost/misplaced sometimes....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,229
  • Nov 16, 2015 10:22am Nov 16, 2015 10:22am
Quoting Cecil Gee
DAL is on its way
good luck, Cecil.....lots of retail stocks bringing in the end of earnings season this week....BBY I thought about putting on a cheap calls vert for the weekly play last night, didn't do it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,230
  • Nov 16, 2015 11:30am Nov 16, 2015 11:30am
Quoting The Fool
well it will be interesting to see what the markets say come Monday. If there's gonna be any kind of revival of a Santa rally, it needs to start rolling soon. Meanwhile. I need a dip below SPY $200 into the mid/late week
not looking too good w/ BTFD inevitably under way, I will probably get stuck right in the middle of SPY DD's with expiries this week....c'est la vie....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,231
  • Edited 1:04pm Nov 16, 2015 12:44pm | Edited 1:04pm
trying to fill Jan UVXY $19/$17 short puts for 70c credit

..............no fill, iv falls off super fast on UVXY when it is dropping, will wait/see where we are going........BTFD could be relentless....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,232
  • Nov 16, 2015 2:45pm Nov 16, 2015 2:45pm
your ^VIX pullback another opp to get on that long vol train
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,233
  • Nov 16, 2015 6:55pm Nov 16, 2015 6:55pm
Quoting The Fool
...I will probably get stuck right in the middle of SPY DD's with expiries this week....c'est la vie....
....a fall back below $204 by the end of the week would be fine....when these work out with the u/l struggling to move out of the low-profit zone of the P/L... at least I'm not sweating and complaining, "so much drama".....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,234
  • Nov 16, 2015 7:16pm Nov 16, 2015 7:16pm
further ^VIX slide will get this VIX fly debit down to 20c maybe 15c...?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,235
  • Nov 16, 2015 7:42pm Nov 16, 2015 7:42pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,236
  • Nov 16, 2015 11:08pm Nov 16, 2015 11:08pm
45c for a $1 spread..............59dte is long long time tho
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,237
  • Nov 17, 2015 9:03am Nov 17, 2015 9:03am
Quoting The Fool
further ^VIX slide will get this VIX fly debit down to 20c maybe 15c...? {image}
What about something with Dec expiry, could be some rising vol into the FOMC as well?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,238
  • Nov 17, 2015 9:42am Nov 17, 2015 9:42am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} What about something with Dec expiry, could be some rising vol into the FOMC as well?
yeah Dawg I have lots of Dec call spreads with VXX - Dec2/Dec and Dec/Dec4...they're all 1-week calendars ....the earlier ones are $26, $27, $28 and the later are $29, $30, $32, $33.....most were 5c-15c debit .....I also have quite a few 1-month calendars, Dec/Jan $29, $32, etc, etc - which cost more but max 22c on those.....everything set to catch a vol spike post Dec FOMC.....still have lots of margin that I am looking to sell premium with (where is it?)....to fund those boondoggles....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,239
  • Nov 17, 2015 5:56pm Nov 17, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting The Fool
your ^VIX pullback another opp to get on that long vol train
Got distracted by a shiny object on the floor ... . Handful of earnings left that are worthwhile, immediately followed by FOMC drama ... . Hoping that it's not a fat chance that I get a good deal of powder dry before that. No rest for the wicked ... .

* * *

With the short call strikes of my UNG 11/12 call debit spread nearing worthless, I figured I'd attempt to salvage something out of the trade by covering those, leaving me with a gaggle of UNG long calls at the 11 strike, which I'll take off for scratch if I can get some sustained positive movement north. (I originally started out with a different spread, but f'd up an order to add a second position with lower strikes, resulting in the original spread being closed out at a loss -- rookie mistake ... ). The end of October matched a record "Working Natural Gas in Storage" level previously set in November 2012, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=23672.

Looking ahead, EIA forecasts that natural gas inventories will end the first quarter of 2016 at about 1,900 Bcf. This would mean that about 2,000 Bcf would be withdrawn from storage between November and March, a smaller drawdown than the previous five-year average. Natural gas production is forecast to be higher this winter compared with last winter, limiting the volume of natural gas withdrawn from storage. Additionally, EIA expects less heating demand this winter, based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecast for a somewhat warmer-than-normal winter. EIA projects slightly higher electric power consumption this year than last, as low natural gas prices are expected to lead to increased natural gas generation, but this will be partially mitigated by the warmer weather. The slight increase in electric power consumption, declines in projected heating demand, and increased natural gas production imply a smaller inventory drawdown this winter when compared with last winter.


Oh, well, there's always next year for a good UNG seasonality trade ... . Least I know what to look for next time around.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,240
  • Nov 17, 2015 6:06pm Nov 17, 2015 6:06pm
With so many frogs in the wheelbarrow, the "no brainer" VIX play that I decided to do was a GTC 11/13 short put spread for a 1.50 credit which has a break even of 11.50.

I put these on for Dec, Jan, Feb with little or no expectation that they will get filled except in some VIX uber crush, which occurs every so often, but that I've missed repeatedly because I plain just have too much to pay attention to otherwise.

Personally, I can't imagine how the Soz juggles 100+ trades at any given time; I've got 30+ on, and it seems like a load ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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