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  • #11,201
  • Edited 9:20pm Nov 12, 2015 8:51pm | Edited 9:20pm
as you might expect I am getting in pretty deep on the long vol fantasy, everything is spread, but those 15c-30c debits add up, so Ima need to sell some put spreads to fund the call spreads, will look to dance with the same devil....85c is sweet for a $2 spread....could bring off most of that in a spike....all time low for UVXY is $24.34...(well not considering how many times the mofo has been split....).
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,202
  • Nov 12, 2015 9:17pm Nov 12, 2015 9:17pm
I've not traded VIX much cuz no weeklies, but good liquidity, lots of oi out the chains means you can do reasonable bflys - 20c for a chance at $2.00 not bad on the Jan4 call fly, the nice thing about being that far out is the P/L spread on earlier dates - the second P/L is 12/24 - a month b4 expiry....no need to wait til the end if you catch a move and are in a hurry to get paid....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,203
  • Nov 12, 2015 11:23pm Nov 12, 2015 11:23pm
YUUUUGE...GE vol today, >450,000 Nov $35 calls....>800,000 Nov $38 calls....same in the same strike puts.....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,204
  • Nov 13, 2015 1:35am Nov 13, 2015 1:35am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ....case by case, I'd say, with the best cases the strong names that get sunk even when their ER data are not bad or even good. Sometimes those big sells are set up to happen at the ER liquidity flush and nothing can stop them....a big dip will be bought back unless there are other things going on maybe in the markets...so, know your quarry...if one is going to trade ER setups I could see the wisdom in concentrating on a set list of names that one studies and knows well over time....
Yes, agreed, absolutely... This is for good stocks, where BTFD-ers will react, like AAPL dips... My list is less than 15 names, maybe even under 10.

A bit hard to type anything, with a 3 yr old in the lap...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,205
  • Nov 13, 2015 9:14am Nov 13, 2015 9:14am
Margin req on Reg-T account for naked selling ES Dec 1950 put is ~$7,500... Put is worth about $20.00 now (i.e. a $1,000 ... 20 x 50)

ES bounces like 0.7%... I imagine that put will lose 25% of the value...

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perfect bounce so far... fib 38.2 not so far down...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,206
  • Nov 13, 2015 11:01am Nov 13, 2015 11:01am
Quoting The Fool
as you might expect I am getting in pretty deep on the long vol fantasy, everything is spread, but those 15c-30c debits add up, so Ima need to sell some put spreads to fund the call spreads, will look to dance with the same devil....85c is sweet for a $2 spread....could bring off most of that in a spike....all time low for UVXY is $24.34...(well not considering how many times the mofo has been split....).
Did something like this at the open - Jan $22/$20 UVXY puts for $0.68 credit, not sure if it filled....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,207
  • Nov 13, 2015 12:28pm Nov 13, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} trying to fill Jan $40/50/60 for 15c - which I saw - but they want >30c now, will wait....the $45/55/65 I got for 30c went to 60c briefly, ....they jump around...
UVXY $45/55/65 Jan fly in for 30c is worth $1.25 or so now....all wide spread (Dec-Jan) VXX calendars are in 2x-3x profit....some of those are set kinda low ($26-$28) so I may cash them out early....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,208
  • Nov 13, 2015 12:30pm Nov 13, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting The Fool
Did something like this at the open - Jan $22/$20 UVXY puts for $0.68 credit, not sure if it filled....
won't know if this filled til AH, but one nice thing about selling puts in a vol flush - the puts will increase in value even when the u/l price is running away from those strikes.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,209
  • Nov 13, 2015 4:53pm Nov 13, 2015 4:53pm
my accounts were in good shape, right before the end of the world....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,210
  • Edited 5:57pm Nov 13, 2015 5:31pm | Edited 5:57pm
Will look at the fly idea early next week. I naturally want to see if this sell-off deepens or if BTFDer's wade in here, since price is right at that 9/17 daily wick.

If we do get a bounce, volatility could cave = buying opportunity.

But no biggie if I can't get in on a VIX product play ... . Got plenty of irons in the fire and few still on the sidelines that I can stick in ... .

* * *

I've pretty much taken to just trading what the Dough grid presents as possibilities (high IVR/IV). This has kept me busy enough while I've waited for sufficient volatility to return to the broader market index ETF's to put on my bread-and-butter index ETF trades. Now that I've warmed up a little bit to doing earnings and post-earnings premium selling plays, I'm kind of less enthusiastic for devoting buying power to 45 DTE index ETF trades (plus, I've still got a few turd piles that got caught up in the October rally that I had to roll out to Dec ... ).

If this volatility holds, though, I see no harm in slapping on a SPY/IWM/QQQ/DIA short strangle somewhere (the iron condor setups just eat away too much at the profit potential) and suck if you have to roll. I'm not going to be a hugely happy camper when I have to trade inside an IRA a lot of the time.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,211
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:03pm Nov 13, 2015 6:03pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Will look at the fly idea early next week. I naturally want to see if this sell-off deepens or if BTFDer's wade in here, since price is right at that 9/17 daily wick. If we do get a bounce, volatility could cave = buying opportunity. But no biggie if I can't get in on a VIX product play ... . Got plenty of irons in the fire and few still on the sidelines that I can stick in ... . * * * I've pretty much taken to just trading what the Dough grid presents as possibilities (high IVR/IV). This has kept me busy enough while I've waited for sufficient...
And with those turd pile Iron Condor sides I had to roll, I'm not doing any of this 50% max nonsense ... . Going for at or near max profit for those; if it doesn't look like I can get out for .05 debit or so with 3 DTE, I'll roll those bitches again ... . Seems only fair ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,212
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:07pm Nov 13, 2015 6:07pm
It is entirely possibly that I'm in too many oil plays: OIH (iron condor), XOP (short strangle), HES (short strangle). I almost put on another in XOM, since its IVR popped to 75+ ... . You go where the volatility takes you, but you gotta pay some attention to the correlations ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,213
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:27pm Nov 13, 2015 6:27pm
For Monday, I'm doing CAT (high IVR/high IV) post-earnings via short strangle (Dec 31 63/76) and looking for a 1.65 credit.

I'll also look at HD and WMT to see whether I should put something on before Monday NY close, since they announce earnings on Tuesday before market open. I looked at an HD short strangle (Nov 27 113/127); looks like there will be at least a 1.15+ credit there; the 1 SD WMT short strangle setup (same expiry) ain't looking so hot, with a credit of .57 for the 53/59.5, so I'll probably pass on that.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,214
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:36pm Nov 13, 2015 6:36pm
Quoting The Fool
UVXY $45/55/65 Jan fly in for 30c is worth $1.25 or so now....all wide spread (Dec-Jan) VXX calendars are in 2x-3x profit....some of those are set kinda low ($26-$28) so I may cash them out early....
no, not right on that fly - it closed worth 50c, then of course UVXY was up another $2.50 AH ---- I did fill UVXY Jan $22/20 short puts for 68c, we'll see if I can bring >50% off of those quickly if vol continues to flush next week - you'd have to bet it will...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,215
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:37pm Nov 13, 2015 6:37pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
It is entirely possibly that I'm in too many oil plays: OIH (iron condor), XOP (short strangle), HES (short strangle). I almost put on another in XOM, since its IVR popped to 75+ ... . You go where the volatility takes you, but you gotta pay some attention to the correlations ... .
are you perchance trying to bracket oil trades around the 168th OPEC meeting on 12/4?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,216
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:41pm Nov 13, 2015 6:41pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
volatility could cave = buying opportunity.
I am in too many vix product spreads to list, some are gonna make money, some lose, hoping for the best, just along for the ride and that's the way it goes when wild shit comes at the markets....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,217
  • Nov 14, 2015 10:14pm Nov 14, 2015 10:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} are you perchance trying to bracket oil trades around the 168th OPEC meeting on 12/4?
Yeppers ... .

I've had a hard time playing oil just straight up, so thought I'd go for a more mixed approach, using oil/petro sensitive underlyings ... . My guess is that OPEC may do little or nothing on the notion that if they can just hang out a little bit longer at these prices, they'll cave a few more Bakken shale/Dakota shale operations ... . More market share for them. I may just plain make out on volatility collapse post-meeting as US oil producers go "whew, we're done taking it up the bung hole for a bit".
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,218
  • Nov 14, 2015 10:19pm Nov 14, 2015 10:19pm
The HD earnings play (they announce earnings on Tuesday before market open):

Nov 27 113/126 short strangle for a 1.34 credit
POP%: 75%
Max Profit: $134/contract
BPE: ~$1805 (off hours, so I'm not sure that'll end up being correct on open)
BE's: 111.66/127.34

The TGT (same dealio; Tuesday BMO announcement):

Nov 27 65/77.5 short strangle
POP%: 75%
Max Profit: $124/contract
BPE: ~$948 (off hours).
BE's: 63.76/78.74

GMCR and CRM looking good for 1.00+ credit plays later in the week ... . Can't squeeze jack diddly out of WMT or LOW, but I'll recheck those after Monday open.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,219
  • Edited 10:42pm Nov 14, 2015 10:26pm | Edited 10:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
It is entirely possibly that I'm in too many oil plays: OIH (iron condor), XOP (short strangle), HES (short strangle). I almost put on another in XOM, since its IVR popped to 75+ ... . You go where the volatility takes you, but you gotta pay some attention to the correlations ... .
What the heck, I may slap that XOM on, but for a shorter duration than usual:

Dec 24 70/84.5 short strangle
POP%: 73%
Max Profit: $148
Break Evens: 68.52/85.98

After all, I'm kind of running out of earnings play calendar here, with but a few worthwhile names to go: DE, MDT, COST, ADBE, NKE ... .

Strangely enough, it was the first two plays I did this season that I'm still working off -- YUM and IBM; the rest -- slicker than snot on a doorknob (and now I've probably jinxed it).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,220
  • Edited 10:51pm Nov 14, 2015 10:38pm | Edited 10:51pm
The last thing I looked at doing this coming week was trying to put some short put SPY credit spreads on this dip, but the standard fair 3-wide around the 1 SD line on the put side doesn't get you squat. The Dec 31st (46 DTE) 184/187 will get you a whopping .35 credit ... . Pennies on the sidewalk. Guess I really do need VIX at 25+ to really make a go of those ... .

Traditionally, I just increased the number of contracts to make it worthwhile, which can come back to bite you ... . Or so I've been told.

After having exited by last TLT play, I'm kind of gun shy of the instrument now that a rate hike might possibly happen in Dec. The thing could cave mightily; I looked at long-term TLT/TBT plays based on the rate hike/treasury cave scenario and even considered buying puts in TLT way out in time -- for example, TLT 105 put, Jan 2017. Unfortunately, some clever traders already thought of this wonderful idea way ahead of me, so Jan 2017 puts ain't cheap (3.75 db right now). TBT has a shorter track record, so I hardly know what to go for there, maybe Jan 2017 80 calls; even those are going for a 1.00 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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