Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

So you know what time it is amigo? Oh Yes....

So, this was an important take away for me today. Did not have a chance to post it. But they are telling the market what they are going to do imo....I don't think many people got it......


http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...es20151028.htm

Equilibrium Real Interest Rates
The staff presented several briefings regarding the concept of an equilibrium real interest rate--sometimes labeled the "neutral" or "natural" real interest rate, or "r*"--that can serve as a benchmark to help gauge the stance of monetary policy. Various concepts of r* were discussed. According to one definition, short-run r* is the level of the real short-term interest rate that, if obtained currently, would result in the economy operating at full employment or, in some simple models of the economy, at full employment and price stability. The staff summarized the behavior of estimates of the short-run equilibrium real rate over recent business cycles as well as longer-run trends in real interest rates and key factors that influence those trends. Estimates derived using a variety of empirical models of the U.S. economy and a range of econometric techniques indicated that short-run r* fell sharply with the onset of the 2008-09 financial crisis and recession, quite likely to negative levels. Short-run r* was estimated to have recovered only partially and to be close to zero currently, still well below levels that prevailed during recent economic expansions when the unemployment rate was close to estimates of its longer-run normal level.
With respect to longer-run trends, the staff noted that multiyear averages of short-term real interest rates had been declining not only in the United States, but also in many other large economies for the past quarter-century and stood near zero in most of those economies. Moreover, economic theory indicates that the equilibrium level of short-term real interest rates would likely remain low relative to estimates of its level before the financial crisis if trend growth of total factor productivity does not pick up and if demographic projections for slow growth in working-age populations are borne out. Finally, the staff discussed the implications of uncertainty about the level of the equilibrium real rate for using estimates of short-run r* as a guideline for appropriate monetary policy.
In their comments on the briefings and in their discussion of the potential use of r* in monetary policy deliberations, policymakers made a number of observations. The unemployment rate has declined gradually in recent years, indicating that real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has, on average, exceeded growth of potential GDP, but not by a substantial margin. This outcome, in turn, suggested that the actual level of short-term real interest rates has been below but not substantially below the equilibrium real rate, consistent with estimates that r* currently is close to zero, notably below its historical average.
A number of participants indicated that they expected short-run r* to rise as the economic expansion continued, but probably only gradually. Moreover, it was noted that the longer-run downward trend in real interest rates suggested that short-run r* would likely remain below levels that were normal during previous business cycle expansions, and that the longer-run normal level to which the nominal federal funds rate might be expected to converge in the absence of further shocks to the economy--that is, the level that would be consistent, in the long run, with maximum employment and 2 percent inflation--would likely be lower than was the case in previous decades. A lower long-run level of r* would also imply that the gap between the actual level of the federal funds rate and its near-zero effective lower bound would be smaller on average. A smaller gap might increase the frequency of episodes in which policymakers would not be able to reduce the federal funds rate enough to promote a strong economic recovery and rapid return to maximum employment or to maintain price stability in the aftermath of negative shocks to aggregate demand. Some participants noted that it would be prudent to have additional policy tools that could be used in such situations.

So thinking about three ring circus sideshows(that is a reference to the central banks but also that song from earlier), it occurs to me, EU stopped in a rather non random place, any guesses?

So, like to post some larger patterns, where is it and what is it doing? Had a rather important place nearby....

OK Ben earned a song. I like this one, it reminds me of ff.

Not you guys but you know....

Morning Scott,
If everything revolves around $ atm then I suppose we could say that these moves were in the charts

btw nu went on to complete perfect crab

Reaction at 127 lends credence to the 1.618 which happens to be site of larger crab on daily. Would be nice to catch a long to there but train doors are probably locked.

Here's another one that could work

Just come across this thread and like it so looking at oil and this could be a nice place to buy.

Welcome Mc, I like it too. You have something there.

Thanks, I'll post a few charts and see how we go.
If we break $40 I could see this down to the $30 mark which sounds crazy ;0)

Ummmm...no... there are feasible targets lower. So, have at it....

Some GN again....

i like that one in line with my thinking,, regards as ever B

There is an ab cd there to look.....


And some bigger at play. One step at a time?

Hey B,

Thanks for stopping by. I check in on you but mostly been exiled to posting here.

Absolutely brother. ....

Hi Scott, a couple of new ones

Morning, few charts looking at going forward.