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Trading Made Simple

  • #63,241
  • Nov 14, 2015 3:07pm Nov 14, 2015 3:07pm
Quoting Scrambleguy
{quote} Fantastic thank you so much SJ! my only concern looking at Deans vids on the dots is that he`s using the 15 min tf and I had it in my head I wanted to trade off higher ones i.e, 4h + daily, any thoughts?
Scrambleguy,

I trade mostly the daily (using the guppy's),
4 hour (using the guppy's & dots) & 1 hour
(using the guppy's & dots).

It works out good... no big deal!

Be sure to take your wife/girlfriend out for dinner tonight
with your new found savings
sj
  • #63,242
  • Nov 14, 2015 3:52pm Nov 14, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting snarlyjack3
{quote} Scrambleguy, I trade mostly the daily (using the guppy's), 4 hour (using the guppy's & dots) & 1 hour (using the guppy's & dots). It works out good... no big deal! Be sure to take your wife/girlfriend out for dinner tonight with your new found savings sj
That will have to wait until tomorrow night getting late here in the UK, but thank you SJ def sounds like a great method when blending with the tdi
  • #63,243
  • Nov 14, 2015 7:16pm Nov 14, 2015 7:16pm
Quoting snarlyjack3
{quote} Scrambleguy, I trade mostly the daily (using the guppy's), 4 hour (using the guppy's & dots) & 1 hour (using the guppy's & dots). It works out good... no big deal! Be sure to take your wife/girlfriend out for dinner tonight with your new found savings sj
I loaded the dots method to check it out. However it doesnt work. I put it in the MQL4 folder under indicators. Any suggestions?
  • #63,244
  • Nov 14, 2015 7:25pm Nov 14, 2015 7:25pm
Quoting snarlyjack3
Hidden
Thank you snarlyjack3,

I will have a look at dot method. For sure I will my girl friend for dinner. Thanks
  • #63,246
  • Nov 14, 2015 10:45pm Nov 14, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting snarlyjack3
Hidden
Hi SJ,

Thanks for sharing this method.

I wanted to ask are u trading the tms or this method ?

Or do you do confirmation with both methods (might be confusing)?

Thanks for the patience and clarification to all traders in this thread so far.
  • #63,247
  • Nov 14, 2015 11:24pm Nov 14, 2015 11:24pm
Quoting Scrambleguy
Is anyone using the s3 system by x men still, if so how does it compare to Big E tms and relevants in today`s markets, appreciate any replies.
Hello Scrambleguy, It's still a good systems like most of the TMS are. X-men use the 4ema, 60ema and 200ema, It's similar to TMS with TDI, but he used the shi Channel indi set to D1 on a 4hr chart. Number 1 rules for most of this systems is to trade with HTF trend. A trading plan is only good as the traders who implement it.

Good luck,
Meihk
  • #63,249
  • Nov 15, 2015 2:53am Nov 15, 2015 2:53am
Quoting pete.alfa
{quote} I know everyone trade differently so which one I should follow 200ema or 10ema or 89ema as I'm new to TMS system and still learning. Next week I will go live
Hey there, Pete!

When you are prepared to go live, you should not have uncertainties. You should not have questions and doubts. You should feel confident, you should know exactly what you are doing. It seems to me that at this moment, you should be on demo. It's not the time to go live, because you may lose your hard earned money. Try it on demo first, and when you can trade TMS with your eyes closed and have a high winning ratio, only then you can go live. It's just my opinion.
I hope you'll be making the right decision.
  • #63,250
  • Nov 15, 2015 4:14am Nov 15, 2015 4:14am
Quoting Meihk
{quote} Hello Scrambleguy, It's still a good systems like most of the TMS are. X-men use the 4ema, 60ema and 200ema, It's similar to TMS with TDI, but he used the shi Channel indi set to D1 on a 4hr chart. Number 1 rules for most of this systems is to trade with HTF trend. A trading plan is only good as the traders who implement it. Good luck, Meihk
Thanks Meihk, slowly getting my head round this 😊
  • #63,251
  • Nov 15, 2015 6:08am Nov 15, 2015 6:08am
Quoting snarlyjack3
Hidden
Hi Sj, does it matter that your using an older version of dots? just watched deans vid and he is using version 4.2, and are you using app bars on your method of dots? sorry for all the questions, I just want to start in a right place as i am going to have to get my broker to help me load this as i am useless!
  • #63,252
  • Nov 15, 2015 7:00am Nov 15, 2015 7:00am
The question was asked about using the 200 EMA and 50 EMA and the conversation has spread wider. What I did some time ago when reading this thread, i noted every moving average mentioned, assigned it a colour and put it all on one chart, from the 5 EMA to the 800 EMA then(including the spread of guppy moving averages then spent some time to observe overall which ones were most commonly turning points or dynamic support and resistance. From there i removed all others that were just noise. I think this is a useful exercise for a person trying to find out what ones work for them in reading a chart.
  • #63,253
  • Edited 7:26am Nov 15, 2015 7:08am | Edited 7:26am
This article makes sense:

10 Facts About Moving Averages
May 26, 2013 by Steve

Do you use moving averages in your trading? It is very interesting to lay a 50 day and 200 day moving average on to a chart over a year time frame. You will begin to see patterns develop. Bounce off the 50 day, a last chance for support at the 200 day etc. Each index, stock, and ETF has different key moving averages that have strong prices reactions. It can really help your trading to know the key moving averages that get price reactions on the chart for your trading vehicle. Moving averages are a great place to look for clues to what levels are key areas for support and resistance. Moving averages get there value by giving clues as to where the buyers and sellers are waiting at. The power of moving averages are real because they are used by many traders and in systematic trading as entries and exits. Also moving averages are an unbiased trend indicator, while trend lines are subjective, moving averages are facts.
Ten things traders need to know about moving averages.
1. The 21-day moving average commonly marks the short-term trend, the 50-day moving average the intermediate trend, and the 200-day moving average the long-term trend of the market. The SPY is generally the best tracking ETF for the market in general.
2. In sharply trending markets I have found the 5 day exponential moving average and the 10 day simple moving averages to have meaning as entries and exits to help manage my positions when the longer term moving averages are too far away.
3. Exponential Moving Averages apply more weight to recent price changes, while Simple Moving Averages view each data point in the time frame equally.
4. SMAs let you see where other traders both big and small are buying and selling. The meaning of moving averages as support and resistance points on charts are a result of how other traders are reacting when they are touched by price.
5. Where the price on the chart is in relation to the 200-day moving average is an indication of whether we are in a bull or bear market. Generally speaking bulls keep their confidence to stay long above the 200-day moving average, while bears like to sell short below it. Bears usually win and sell into rallies below this line, and bulls like to buy into pull backs above it. This line is one of the biggest signals in the market telling you which side to be on. Bull above, Bear below. many long term trend following systems are built with this as a primary indicator.
6. When the 50-day moving average pierces the 200-day moving average in either direction, it supposedly predicts a substantial shift in buying and selling behavior. The 50-day moving average rising through the bottom to get above the 200-day moving average is called a Golden Cross which is bullish, while the bearish piercing of the 50 day coming from above and falling beneath the 200 day is called a Death Cross.
7. A great second chance entry on a hot stock is a retaking or bouncing off a 50 day moving average for the specific stocks chart. Many institutional buyers are waiting at the 50 day sma to add to their long term positions.
8. Getting a monster stock with huge future earnings potential at the 200 day is like a gift from the trading gods and usually happens as we come out of a bear market. However if the 200 day is lost it is very dangerous and could begin a fall with no net, this is a time to short the old leaders that may go into death plunges.
9. Some traders use systems that give buy and sell signals when a shorter term moving average crosses over a longer one. Legendary trend trading pioneer Richard Donchian used a five and twenty day moving average cross over system for buy and sell signals.
10. Some traders watch for when a moving average begins to slope upwards or downwards and consider it as a signal of a trend beginning, continuing, or changing.
Each trader must decide how to incorporate moving averages into their own system and time frame. If you are not familiar with them I urge you to pull up the daily chart of your favorite trading vehicle and add in the 5 day ema, 10 day sma, and 50 day sma and look for trending patterns, it may surprise you.

http://www.newtraderu.com/2013/05/26...ng-averages-2/


So i would suggest experimenting with the moving averages that help you decide the trend, which pairs of moving averages you may use to define the crossing of a trend (200 and 50, or 5 and 20 and other combinations. Once you decide what works for you, simplify the chart to keep it readable.
  • #63,254
  • Nov 15, 2015 7:25am Nov 15, 2015 7:25am
When trading, what is it you are trading? many may say Forex or some other instrument.
What is being traded is a decision:
- The decision whether or not to enter a trade
- When to enter a trade and at what price
- what lot size to use
- When to exit a trade.
they are all decisions.
The use of moving averages or any other tool are just the means to help you determine the decision to make.

To further show data regarding Exponential Moving Averages vs Simple Moving Averages and their crosses, this article showed an interesting study

Golden Cross – Which is the best?
http://etfhq.com/blog/2013/01/15/gol...best/#SmaVsEma
  • #63,256
  • Nov 15, 2015 8:09am Nov 15, 2015 8:09am
Quoting Scrambleguy
{quote} Hi Sj, does it matter that your using an older version of dots? just watched deans vid and he is using version 4.2, and are you using app bars on your method of dots? sorry for all the questions, I just want to start in a right place as i am going to have to get my broker to help me load this as i am useless!
Scrambleguy,

I really don't think it matters. The idea is the same.
I don't want to pay anyone $$$ for a indicator.

The idea is to learn how to trade. Not to spend money!
sj
  • #63,257
  • Nov 15, 2015 8:20am Nov 15, 2015 8:20am
Quoting snarlyjack3
Hidden
Could you post you indis and templates for pic one plz
  • #63,258
  • Nov 15, 2015 8:27am Nov 15, 2015 8:27am
Thanks for the discussion on EMA's and interesting blogpost OuterWest.

I gotta say tho that I'm somewhat skeptical. Danger with this type of research is overfitting. I do believe that there is some 'range' of multiples that are good. Just like Multiple Time Frame analysis advocates a 4-1 / 5-1 ratio the calculations of the authors points in that direction.

2 weeks ago, Emmanuel talked extensively about the 10EMA and its importance. I spent some time looking at this and believe this has merit although these values are always arbitrary. It's more important to look at this as a guideline, and learn price's relation to this guideline sort of I think.

I went on to study this 10EMA on the Daily rule in lower timeframes and couldn't help but wonder how this thread arived at the 50/200 EMA values. Obviously, they serve as an approximation in the lower timeframes of the 10EMA in the daily. A quick inspection reveals tho that this is a bit off. I am currently using a 40EMA and a 175 EMA because they fit the 10EMA closer I think.

Is all of this important? Not really. Changing any of these values will not make anyone turn from a losing into a winning trader. But for some reason I think we like to look at these things and think it will make a difference. EMA's are more like dynamic regions of support and resistance (Any value of an EMA will because of their math) and confluence with other things give them more weight and importance.

Just my 2 cents,

This week I'm entering a demo trading competition organized by my broker. The idea is to be consistent and steady daily profits yield extra rewards. So I will focus this week on a scalping kind of approach and bank profits early. Every week I've focused on certain aspects and trying to master specific things of the TMS method. Good trading all,
  • #63,260
  • Nov 15, 2015 8:35am Nov 15, 2015 8:35am
Quoting Dridzz
{quote} Could you post you indis and templates for pic one plz
Good morning Dridzz,

See post 63,227 for the Dot's indicator.
The short/long term guppy settings are:

Short term guppy's: 5,8,10,12,15 (ema/close)
Long term guppy's : 30,35,40,45,50,55,60 (ema/close)
I don't use the short term guppy's...I use the pac instead.
sj
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