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  • #14,681
  • Nov 12, 2015 4:48am Nov 12, 2015 4:48am
Quoting embo
2. also what is the leverage 1:50 ; 1:100, volume 0.50 ; 1; 10... etc. you use? I assume with 120 TP yours volume should be more that 1 or 2. in some posts from master @vvFish I saw that he has gigantic volumes, mostly 50 in each open order. much appreciate your help.
Hi Embo,

Unless you're trading a million dollars on an institutional account I don't see how you could possibly trade this much and at the price you want as the liquidity drops in the direction of the spike, but to answer your question, I personally look at the pre-range side in pips, latest high-impact news on the pair, and ATM I trade an average 1 lot per trade on news with a 5000$ account, risking about 150$ per trade and trailing my stops. Trading 1 lot on the AUDUSD last night with a leverage of 500:1 (which is mine) you could have made up to 800$, so the reward/risk is more than 5:1

Cheers
Edo
You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
  • #14,682
  • Nov 12, 2015 4:55am Nov 12, 2015 4:55am
Quoting Edorenta
{quote} Hi Embo, Unless you're trading a million dollars on an institutional account I don't see how you could possibly trade this much and at the price you want as the liquidity drops in the direction of the spike, but to answer your question, I personally look at the pre-range side in pips, latest high-impact news on the pair, and ATM I trade an average 1 lot per trade on news with a 5000$ account, risking about 150$ per trade and trailing my stops. Trading 1 lot on the AUDUSD last night with a leverage of 500:1 (which is mine) you could have...
With 5000$ on your account you are risking 5000$ no matter where your SL is...
  • #14,683
  • Nov 12, 2015 5:12am Nov 12, 2015 5:12am
Thanks Tony! 66 pips on last night's AUD Employment Change.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD - Employment Change - 11-11-2015.jpg Size: 792 KB
  • #14,684
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:04am Nov 12, 2015 6:04am
Quoting Tony112
Failure tonight. It's life. {image}
hey Tony, sorry for your loss, i'm sure you'll make it back soon
i was wandering, do you get slippage on your SL ?
i lose money for a living
  • #14,685
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:11am Nov 12, 2015 6:11am
Quoting Edorenta
{quote} Hi Embo, Unless you're trading a million dollars on an institutional account I don't see how you could possibly trade this much and at the price you want as the liquidity drops in the direction of the spike, but to answer your question, I personally look at the pre-range side in pips, latest high-impact news on the pair, and ATM I trade an average 1 lot per trade on news with a 5000$ account, risking about 150$ per trade and trailing my stops. Trading 1 lot on the AUDUSD last night with a leverage of 500:1 (which is mine) you could have...
thanks Edo for reply,

lots was just for example, in my case I can trade max with 1 lot. of course I am in demo account now, don't wanna risk real money. news trading is very interesting, googling, learning whatever I can find for last few month on how to trade on news. still a lot of work waiting for me. knowledge mixed with practice is everything.

thanks for tips.
  • #14,686
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:16am Nov 12, 2015 6:16am
hi Tony,

just wondering how you deal with price move within first seconds during news release? if you put order minute before release with SL 20-25 PIP, it is fact that few seconds before and after the news price is changing so fast and much that it is closing the open order hitting SL. what to do with this, how to deal?

thanks in advance
  • #14,687
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:37am Nov 12, 2015 6:37am
Quoting embo
{quote} thanks Edo for reply, lots was just for example, in my case I can trade max with 1 lot. of course I am in demo account now, don't wanna risk real money. news trading is very interesting, googling, learning whatever I can find for last few month on how to trade on news. still a lot of work waiting for me. knowledge mixed with practice is everything. thanks for tips.
Finding broker for news trading is everything...
  • #14,688
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:48am Nov 12, 2015 6:48am
Quoting Jure86
{quote} Finding broker for news trading is everything...
Yep, but once you do find a broker with good liquidity providers and limited slippage, you won't risk the whole account as you claimed.
You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
  • #14,689
  • Nov 12, 2015 9:27am Nov 12, 2015 9:27am
Quoting Edorenta
{quote} Yep, but once you do find a broker with good liquidity providers and limited slippage, you won't risk the whole account as you claimed.
Really? How long do you trade? Is trade always closed at TP or SL? Show me the broker how guarentee that spread will never be bigger then 50pips,...
And there are some times when you can't do anything. Just one of them... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=521867
  • #14,690
  • Nov 12, 2015 9:41am Nov 12, 2015 9:41am
Might want to consider IG, they have guaranteed stop losses which comes in quite useful. However you have to pay a slight premium in the form of slightly higher spread than non-guaranteed. Also stop losses have to be at least 30 pips from your order price. So trying to set very tight stops like 15 pips is not possible.
  • #14,691
  • Nov 12, 2015 11:42am Nov 12, 2015 11:42am
Quoting Journeyman
....Also stop losses have to be at least 30 pips from your order price. So trying to set very tight stops like 15 pips is not possible.
so thats pretty much useless during news trading, unless some other Swiss crash happens.
i lose money for a living
  • #14,692
  • Nov 12, 2015 12:03pm Nov 12, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting tylerbose
{quote} so thats pretty much useless during news trading, unless some other Swiss crash happens.
If they also offer guaranteed limit order you could put a limit order a bit further away to hedge your position in worst case. If it's possible this will still cost some pips but it still covers the mayor incalculable portion of risk. I would be fine loosing 120 pips every day compared to something like 9000.
  • #14,693
  • Nov 12, 2015 5:40pm Nov 12, 2015 5:40pm
Has anyone looked into options to trade news? I want to diversify part of my news trading strategy just in case this way of trading might not work anymore sooner or later for what ever reason. I don't have much experience using options but I believe they could be worth a look.
  • #14,694
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:30pm Nov 12, 2015 6:30pm
Quoting tylerbose
{quote} so thats pretty much useless during news trading, unless some other Swiss crash happens.
I would stay away from Swiss like plague - crazy central bankers with no consideration for market sanity. However for trades which you put in well before news releases - say about half hour before the time, it saves your capital. That said, I personally prefer to use Oanda, because for EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY - the maximum spread so far has not be wider than 15 pips. I'm still playing around with IG for demo, don't quite like their platform, and their guaranteed stops is no better than Oanda's 15 pips. Further, if your trade is on the right side, the widening spread should not affect your position too much as prices are moving away from your stop losses (provided it is far enough).
  • #14,695
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:40pm Nov 12, 2015 6:40pm
Quoting Kilian19
Has anyone looked into options to trade news? I want to diversify part of my news trading strategy just in case this way of trading might not work anymore sooner or later for what ever reason. I don't have much experience using options but I believe they could be worth a look.
I am looking into fading news when the effects of the initial announcements run out of steam because from my observations, only NFP produce sufficient price movements to be very profitable nowadays. For most other news releases, you are lucky to get 40 to 50 pips movements. Maybe it's end of the year and many traders are clearing their leave.

My thinking is this, since it is a 50/50 proposition that you could get your bets right and place your bets before the news release, you are still risking some amount of capital, but psychologically it can be rather damaging to get hit with consecutive loosing bets, not to mention damage to your capital. If that doesn't faze you much then fine, you would do good to just proceed as planned.

At some point of time, when people have digested the news impact, prices are going to retrace, sometimes back to where it started before the news release. This gives us the opportunity to fade and earn a few extra precious pips. The advantage to this approach is that by this time market liquidity has stabilised, and spreads are back to the normal 1.4 to 1.8 pips. So you can place very tight stops without fear of having widening spreads killing off your good trades.

I'm still testing this concept before implementing it in my live account, so YMMV.
  • #14,696
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:54pm Nov 12, 2015 6:54pm
Quoting Journeyman
...
If you are looking into retracements I suggest you take a close look at the oil (or was it gas?) releases. One of this instruments retraces pretty sharply almost 90% of the time if I remember correctly. With Oanda increasing the spread and routing the liquidity to their providers for cfds (which leads to slippage) we are unable to profit from these retracement but you might be luckier at another broker. I am actually looking for one at the moment as those weekly releases promise a good opportunity.

Generally speaking news generate a bigger spike during the last 3 months of the year. I have created a spreadsheet to track seasonal differences in the different releases to spot good news and that was a pattern which appeared. I have only looked at a small sample size though, this is a task which takes a lot of time and I am planning on doing it on a greater scale during Christmas break.
  • #14,697
  • Nov 12, 2015 7:01pm Nov 12, 2015 7:01pm
Quoting Kilian19
{quote} If you are looking into retracements I suggest you take a close look at the oil (or was it gas?) releases. One of this instruments retraces pretty sharply almost 90% of the time if I remember correctly. With Oanda increasing the spread and routing the liquidity to their providers for cfds (which leads to slippage) we are unable to profit from these retracement but you might be luckier at another broker. I am actually looking for one at the moment as those weekly releases promise a good opportunity. Generally speaking news generate a bigger...
That's a very good thing to do, to keep track of different releases and its impact in prices.

For commodities and oil and gas, I think all brokers have the same spread and slippage issues, so the inherent risks involved have to be accounted for. I'll definitely look into this again and maybe figure out a way to profit from it. If it works, I'll be happy to share here.
  • #14,698
  • Nov 12, 2015 7:34pm Nov 12, 2015 7:34pm
Quoting Kilian19
Has anyone looked into options to trade news? I want to diversify part of my news trading strategy just in case this way of trading might not work anymore sooner or later for what ever reason. I don't have much experience using options but I believe they could be worth a look.
I've been trading options for quite a few years but never traded them for news.
I can see a few problems.

Before the news event, the options are going to have an increased premium built into the price so you'd be paying a premium price. After the news hits, the premium will quickly be sucked out. If the news doesn't move the price much, you'll have a loss in both positions if you purchased a call & put. If price moves strongly in 1 direction, you'd sell the opposite position for a loss & hope the price continued in the original direction. If price would retract you'd probably have a profit smaller than the loss in the opposite position or even a loss if price retraced most of the move.

If you were going to try it, I think I'd buy far out-of-money calls & puts and hope the news creates a strong directional move. So if you pay .05 for each call & put, one of them would go to zero & the other might go to .30-???????.
You'd probably have quite a few trades where both positions would go to zero or maybe you'd get one sold for .05 & the other for zero. You'd need some patience until you hit the winning trades which could be pretty big but they'd have to pay for all the small losing trades.
  • #14,699
  • Nov 13, 2015 7:56am Nov 13, 2015 7:56am
Disappointing Reaction to Retail Sales I went Long and initially was the right direction but it just couldn't go quite far enough. I was aiming for 60 Pips with a 12 Pip stop but just couldn't quite get there...

Moved stop to 0 though so didn't take any loses.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,700
  • Nov 13, 2015 3:25pm Nov 13, 2015 3:25pm
Quoting srt
......
That is an interesting read thank you. I have barley any knowledge regarding options and the only thing I do know are the different greeks.

It's surprising that you suggest buying options far out of the money. All news related strategies for options I have come across so far suggested to buy a straddle at the money. I will play around with payout profiles a little bit but I am sure that due to me not understanding the basics well enough options will not be used in my daily trading anytime soon.

There are so many different strategies which makes this instrument pretty interesting and we always can write options as well... I feel like there should be a good way to trade news with statistics and options but there has to be a lot of number crunching done beforehand.
Are options a 0 sum game for the buyer and writer? I can't really get my head around this. A person who earns the premium should do well in theory and in the long run but why is not everyone writing options then?
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