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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #7,361
  • Nov 8, 2015 7:45am Nov 8, 2015 7:45am
Upload Screenshot
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  • #7,362
  • Nov 8, 2015 7:46am Nov 8, 2015 7:46am
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  • #7,363
  • Nov 9, 2015 10:50am Nov 9, 2015 10:50am
Perfect SandP fork
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #7,364
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:47am Nov 10, 2015 2:47am
Quoting eaglestar
Perfect SandP fork {image}
S&P500,H1:
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M5: Notice pin bar. Notice black target price and actual low (red).
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D1: A stronger fork (black) in play with the recent low. Red, which captures width, is also of some interest.
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D1 closeup. The actual intercept is 2062.33. True low is 2061.75. (GCI-Demo, and I don't know accuracy of the feed).
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WTI Crude, D1:
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So to me, the larger timeframes do offer accuracy. Since I only trade currencies, I appreciate others who bring such charts to my attention when approaching major lines.

Speaking of which... AlexC, a belated big thanks for your July 15 NZDUSD post.

NZDUSD,D1 a few weeks back. I missed the actual (perfect) bounce, but entered at a retrace for just a small part of it. As anyone can see, the LML was later exceeded, but it was a great short trade for me.
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  • #7,365
  • Nov 10, 2015 4:33am Nov 10, 2015 4:33am
Short cable this morning - got out at B/E - price not behaving as I thought it would. Pleased to have had the flexibility to see that things might not be as I'd thought.
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  • #7,366
  • Nov 11, 2015 2:59am Nov 11, 2015 2:59am
Was looking at this Friday and passed the trade because it was Friday. Price now below the LMLH of up-sloping ML set so aiming to get short at UMLH of down-sloping set. Any thoughts / comments welcome. B.
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  • #7,367
  • Nov 11, 2015 3:09am Nov 11, 2015 3:09am
15 minute charts of Euro/$ and Cable - wondering about shorts in both at UMLH of down-sloping ML sets - watching and waiting.
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  • #7,368
  • Edited 7:52am Nov 11, 2015 4:28am | Edited 7:52am
Placed order to short cable at retest of UMLH - comments and thoughts welcome


Stopped out - although there were some tests of the UMLH and some minor swings lower price had not broken below the bottom of the wide range bar that I was calling my C pivot. I think I got caught with a fixed idea in my mind (this things been going lower and this is the end of a retracement) and then found some lines to support my idea. Need to concentrate on seeing the chart rather than interpreting the chart according to my ideas. This is my biggest obstacle to success.
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  • #7,369
  • Nov 11, 2015 5:57am Nov 11, 2015 5:57am
a few
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #7,370
  • Nov 11, 2015 8:05pm Nov 11, 2015 8:05pm
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  • #7,371
  • Nov 12, 2015 2:18am Nov 12, 2015 2:18am
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  • #7,372
  • Nov 12, 2015 8:33am Nov 12, 2015 8:33am
Followup

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  • #7,373
  • Nov 13, 2015 11:46pm Nov 13, 2015 11:46pm
Hi Winston Reed

I found the same frequency and drew the same fork and entered the same trade as you! Wondering what your target is i'm aiming for median line.

Paul Coghlan posted his chart on the dollar index hitting a major resistance from his analysis - not sure what to do about this trade HMM
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  • #7,374
  • Nov 14, 2015 6:03pm Nov 14, 2015 6:03pm
Quoting patientML
Hi Winston Reed I found the same frequency and drew the same fork and entered the same trade as you! Wondering what your target is i'm aiming for median line. Paul Coghlan posted his chart on the dollar index hitting a major resistance from his analysis - not sure what to do about this trade HMM {image}
Hello. Sorry I didn't see your post earlier. The median line was an ambitious target. I tend to accept lower targets.
  • #7,375
  • Nov 18, 2015 4:24am Nov 18, 2015 4:24am
AUDUSD 1H chart, going for long
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  • #7,376
  • Nov 19, 2015 6:13pm Nov 19, 2015 6:13pm
I read that there is an 80% chance trading with pitchforks, can someone be kind to explain how this 80% trade is set up
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #7,377
  • Nov 20, 2015 12:24am Nov 20, 2015 12:24am
According to Alan Andrews there is an 80% chance that price will meet the Median line of a median line set (pitchfork) once price has started heading towards that line. But median lines are drawn using 3 alternating pivots and finding an entry early enough after the 3rd pivot has formed is a bit of an art - ie it's easy to see that third pivot in hindsight but in real time much harder. Tim Morge, one of the traders who has popularised the use of this tool aims to identify that pivot within 5 bars - but he's been trading over 40 years.
  • #7,378
  • Nov 20, 2015 4:33am Nov 20, 2015 4:33am
Quoting bartlby37
According to Alan Andrews there is an 80% chance that price will meet the Median line of a median line set (pitchfork) once price has started heading towards that line. But median lines are drawn using 3 alternating pivots and finding an entry early enough after the 3rd pivot has formed is a bit of an art - ie it's easy to see that third pivot in hindsight but in real time much harder. Tim Morge, one of the traders who has popularised the use of this tool aims to identify that pivot within 5 bars - but he's been trading over 40 years.
Thanks, yes that is what I have been noticing ,it is definitely an art, I was wondering if there was any specific setup rules required for this trade,
here is an attempt of mine using a trendline and a 10 day exp ma, my idea for entry is when the first bars high that closed above the trendline and the ma is taken out.
don't know if this is a valid setup? or maybe we should buy only at the bottom of the fork after this have occured, as you see my trade would have been stopped out.
at the time of the stop out we also dont know where the bottom of the fork is, maybe buying below the main low? it is a bit of a dilemma.
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Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #7,379
  • Nov 20, 2015 4:59am Nov 20, 2015 4:59am
Quoting roughtrader
{quote} Thanks, yes that is what I have been noticing ,it is definitely an art, I was wondering if there was any specific setup rules required for this trade, here is an attempt of mine using a trendline and a 10 day exp ma, my idea for entry is when the first bars high that closed above the trendline and the ma is taken out. don't know if this is a valid setup? or maybe we should buy only at the bottom of the fork after this have occured, as you see my trade would have been stopped out. at the time of the stop out we also dont know where the bottom...
I would suggest visiting www.marketgeometry.com and watching all their free videos, reading the blog etc. I'd also suggest reading this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=565188 It starts off with simple market structure and then moves toward using median lines. People use median lines in various ways - market geometry has the original Andrews course which contains some rules about how price behaves relative to median lines. Also lines are just lines - the market doesn't know they are their - so they need to be tested to give an indication of their value - so a common entry technique is to wait for a line to be tested and then enter on a retest of that line - those videos at market geometry are a good place to start.
  • #7,380
  • Nov 20, 2015 5:14am Nov 20, 2015 5:14am
Quoting bartlby37
{quote} I would suggest visiting www.marketgeometry.com and watching all their free videos, reading the blog etc. I'd also suggest reading this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=565188 It starts off with simple market structure and then moves toward using median lines. People use median lines in various ways - market geometry has the original Andrews course which contains some rules about how price behaves relative to median lines. Also lines are just lines - the market doesn't...
thanks bartlby37 apprechiated
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
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