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  • #361
  • Nov 5, 2015 1:23pm Nov 5, 2015 1:23pm
I hope you manage to catch the GU drop below the 3 days ovelay. It was telling given the last 2 days VTY of 11.5 & 11.6 respective value was increasing but overall 3 days vty reading is still a steady 11.4 market pause with a good 3 days balance.

AJ have a previous up move break out on Tuesday, reversing a previous 15days correction. Was slower day yesterday but it seems today is slower still. So 2 days of lower VTY may change for tomorrow.
  • #362
  • Edited 5:52am Nov 6, 2015 5:22am | Edited 5:52am
Hello mzvega and evak

today AUD/JPY is still bracketing, net flow is negative with direction down (yesterday up), activity is still shrinking and not predictive.
I painted my overlays in my own colors, lime=monday, orange=wed till red=friday, to recognize development.

What do you think about USD/CHF? 5+10 bracket, net flow positive with clearly directional up mov, activity up, predictive up.
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AUD/CAD 5 day bracket, net flow up, with direction up, but activity down, not predictive. The %-relation between range and value are on an extreme for the last 5 days (34,11%) is that an sign for more inituative buying because buyer are trying to extend the range? TFF is shrinking from 5day extreme (10,92) maybee an sign for trend starting in that bracket? VTY is still shrinking. Wait for more activity and VTY?

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greetings
  • #363
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:37pm Nov 6, 2015 12:37pm
AJ negative flow does provide a good basis but between AJ & ACAD my chioice would be AJ for a long given a more balance 3day overlay & higher volume
count. Conservatively though should wait for the shorter TF profile to shift upwards relative to the longer TF.

for USDCHF; looking at how all the overlays are stack up, there is no reason to think otherwise that it is still in an up trend continuation. IT forma a base (reaccumulation) since the break out 10 days ago hence the braketing 10 days on top of the trending 20days. VTY should be lower as efficiency sets in with as TFF builts up.

Here are my trades mostly Majors as thats is my focus & one exotic.

USDCHF - uptrend break out of all overlays after 10 days of pause
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EURUSD - a continuation trade since breakout 2 days ago. Down Trending 20 days & 5 days trending within the 10days bracket.
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USDCAD - 10 days bracket position at 20days upper half long trend is up. And the 5days basing around the 10 days. (base within a base sort of). Previous 2 days daily range & activity was heighten then it suddenly went into a flat day with change in value. I reckon it is worth my attention.
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USDJPY- a continuation trade for my since the breakout on Wed. My entry was yesterday rather.
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One other pair itraded s USDSGD which is very similar in profile to USDCHF.
I be closing all out today.
  • #364
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:44pm Nov 6, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting dljonesFan
Thank you mzvega for your advice. Thank you evak for sharing your entries. Today GBP/USD looks good for an aggressive short on 3 day bracket. G1 {image} G1 Netflow down with activity not that strong, but slightly better than yesterday and direction down. Predictive down. G2 {image} G2 What do you think? Go aggressive short on 3 day Bracket LL breakdown? Or wait for 5 day bracket? Greetings C
Your analysis was Right On!
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #365
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:57pm Nov 6, 2015 1:57pm
Quoting dljonesFan
What do you think about AUD/JPY? Strategy: 5day bracket UL breakout. {image} Net flow Direction is up, activity is negative, not predictive. {image} Wait for more activity?
Again, spot on
you were right in suggesting to wait for more activity. You could tell there wasn't enough activity in response to testing for higher prices.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #366
  • Nov 6, 2015 2:24pm Nov 6, 2015 2:24pm
Quoting dljonesFan
Hello mzvega and evak today AUD/JPY is still bracketing, net flow is negative with direction down (yesterday up), activity is still shrinking and not predictive. I painted my overlays in my own colors, lime=monday, orange=wed till red=friday, to recognize development. What do you think about USD/CHF? 5+10 bracket, net flow positive with clearly directional up mov, activity up, predictive up. {image}{image} AUD/CAD 5 day bracket, net flow up, with direction up, but activity down, not predictive. The %-relation between range and value are on an...
Again, you were correct in your analysis
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #367
  • Nov 6, 2015 3:03pm Nov 6, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting Evak
AJ negative flow does provide a good basis but between AJ & ACAD my chioice would be AJ for a long given a more balance 3day overlay & higher volume count. Conservatively though should wait for the shorter TF profile to shift upwards relative to the longer TF. for USDCHF; looking at how all the overlays are stack up, there is no reason to think otherwise that it is still in an up trend continuation. IT forma a base (reaccumulation) since the break out 10 days ago hence the braketing 10 days on top of the trending 20days. VTY should be lower as efficiency...
Those were some great trades!
Trading days don't get much better than that.
Your posts have been greatly missed..........
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #368
  • Nov 6, 2015 5:16pm Nov 6, 2015 5:16pm
Which platforms were/are you using?

I've been looking at Linns Investor rt or Sierra. I've been interested in Investor rt cause of the ease of creating studies vs the old way of manual input into excel. I use ninjatrader but the platform is unstable on many levels for my needs.
  • #369
  • Nov 7, 2015 12:38pm Nov 7, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting peregrine
Which platforms were/are you using? I've been looking at Linns Investor rt or Sierra. I've been interested in Investor rt cause of the ease of creating studies vs the old way of manual input into excel. I use ninjatrader but the platform is unstable on many levels for my needs.
MT4
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #370
  • Edited 4:51am Nov 9, 2015 3:44am | Edited 4:51am
Thank you Evak for sharing your entries and opinion, Im impressed. You gave some interesting notes too, thats great for understanding!
Thank you Mzvega for sharing your opinion, I like your stats and explanations. I think I need that table with the long time net flow and bracketing days too. With this data it is possible to get a better understanding of whats going on, because you can "track" the market. Can you please tell me how to create that bracketing table?

Jones mentions closing locations all the time in his articles. I will implement them in my analysis.

For extracting the 5,10,20 day data, do you also use your 1 price Step configuration? Because with 1 Price Step its seems to take hours to get the csv extracted. Iam thinking of using Price step 5, (Cisco graphics is using Price Step 10 for forex?) Iam not shure if that long price step is too inacurrate?


greetings
C
  • #371
  • Edited 12:58pm Nov 9, 2015 12:45pm | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting dljonesFan
Thank you Evak for sharing your entries and opinion, Im impressed. You gave some interesting notes too, thats great for understanding! Thank you Mzvega for sharing your opinion, I like your stats and explanations. I think I need that table with the long time net flow and bracketing days too. With this data it is possible to get a better understanding of whats going on, because you can "track" the market. Can you please tell me how to create that bracketing table? Jones mentions closing locations all the time in his articles. I will implement them...
If you're using a chart template that has the indicator on it. When you open the template, even if you cant see them, will contain the data & profile objects from when you created the template, while its trying to update itself. If you use a template with the indicator on it, you should run a delete all objects script, then refresh the indicator.
What I do for my daily exports is that I create a couple of Chart profiles That have all the pairs with the indicator already there.
When I need to export I switch chart profiles and do my exports and switch back. When you switch chart profiles all the charts are there as you left them and update easily. When you're done just switch back to the regular default chart profile.
Also removing any pairs from the market watch window that you don't use will keep your platform from downloading data you dont intend on using.
You can find a "deleteallobject" script in the attachment list.

I use 1 step for my export. But I did at one time change it to 2 step, as I run into the same issue, as a hopeful solution, but it didnt go away. Keep export charts in a chart profile and just switch your view when you need to export and switch back. If you load the indicator from a template always use the deleteallobject script.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #372
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:38pm Nov 9, 2015 1:38pm
Thank you Mzvega, but my question refers to that bracket table in your presentation:
Attached Image


How is it possible to sum up all the data into a excel file like that? Do I need some other programs?

Sorry, my question was inaccurate.

Greetings
C
  • #373
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:45pm Nov 9, 2015 2:45pm
Quoting dljonesFan
Thank you Mzvega, but my question refers to that bracket table in your presentation: {image} How is it possible to sum up all the data into a excel file like that? Do I need some other programs? Sorry, my question was inaccurate. Greetings C
It is possible in excel but it gets quite difficult handling multiple pairs. That’s why I suggested learning SQL (postgresql, mysql, librebase) it can all be done in sql easily. I use python because I can use python to write to or read between sql db & excel with the speed of python. A database is like one massive excel sheet on steroids. But the language is much easier. With all your data in the db, just ask it e.g. “(select all pairs & tf’s where dist column=1) or (select all export files and make a new column that says “bracketing” if dist column =1 and 0 if dist column =>1) Call it a report and when you open the file all your data is just there.

If you use excel you will need to import all the files into an excel sheet, which is time consuming, and cumbersome. Or in the cell formula have it = a different file’s cell value. But as of late I mostly use python to write to or read from postgresql & excel.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #374
  • Nov 10, 2015 9:12am Nov 10, 2015 9:12am
Hi mzvega,

thank you for that information. Today I viewed some programming languages. I think JAVA is nice. Python seems a little bit confusing to me. In the next days I will try to get some skills in JAVA.
But the most importand thing for me today: I made money! EURCAD and AUDCAD breakdown 3 day bracket. That was great!

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Thank you mzvega and evak for helping me out! You made that possible!
  • #375
  • Nov 10, 2015 5:54pm Nov 10, 2015 5:54pm
Quoting dljonesFan
Hi mzvega, thank you for that information. Today I viewed some programming languages. I think JAVA is nice. Python seems a little bit confusing to me. In the next days I will try to get some skills in JAVA. But the most importand thing for me today: I made money! EURCAD and AUDCAD breakdown 3 day bracket. That was great! {image} {image} Thank you mzvega and evak for helping me out! You made that possible!
Your worksheet looks great! You put a lot of effort into it. Hopefully well see more of those great posts!

The bracket table of mine that you used for an example has multiple TFs, however you can simply (for a single pair) hide all the other columns except for date, column UL,& LL and the add the daily(1day profiles) vty column to accomplish the same thing. Do this for all TF's
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post7520209
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post7971878

RF is a directional ref. That can be placed in the direction section. Also you might want to add attempted direction. Whether the attempt was successful or not, its always nice to know what the market was attempting to do.
Attempted direction isnt a ref. per se, its more of a indicator made up of refs.

Att dir= if (vah and val, are greater the attempted dir higher or if vah and val, are less the, attempted dir lower, if neither null

Is the POC is greater than the open by 20% of the range:
Att dir= IF(POC>=(H-L*20%)>Open,"Up",IF(POC <=(H-L*20%)< Open,"Down","Null"))
If both formulas in agreement up or down
If those are arent in agreement neutral

Good trading!
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #376
  • Edited 10:48am Nov 12, 2015 2:31am | Edited 10:48am
Hi mzvega, evak

thank you mzvega for the formula. I will implement this.

1. How do you handle NEWS events like ECB Speech?

2. And how should I handle the VTY stops? Does this mean VTY=9,7 -> stoploss -100 points?

Today I tried some responsive buying, after range extension (fake breakdown). Sad story, get chopped and stopped out the whole day and I dont realy know why (news VTY?). In some pairs there where range extensions in both directions, horrible.

PS: Still coding and learning, I again changed to python3.5 (import pandas) and it works

greetings
C
  • #377
  • Edited 4:36pm Nov 12, 2015 3:42pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting dljonesFan
Hi mzvega, evak thank you mzvega for the formula. I will implement this. 1. How do you handle NEWS events like ECB Speech? 2. And how should I handle the VTY stops? Does this mean VTY=9,7 -> stoploss -100 points? Today I tried some responsive buying, after range extension (fake breakdown). Sad story, get chopped and stopped out the whole day and I dont realy know why (news VTY?). In some pairs there where range extensions in both directions, horrible. PS: Still coding and learning, I again changed to python3.5 (import pandas) and it works greetings...
Im not recommending that this should apply to you but I rarely use stops, I only use them as a protective stop to secure profits, not as a stop loss for my trade.

EU News & Open is closer to my midnight. Most the time I am asleep. Most times than not, price ends up right back where it started, and even if it doesnt you, rarely causes any relative change in value. I trade a small enough size that a wild swing of multiple pairs wouldnt adversely affect my account.
Im trading changes from one market condition to another, not price.
Price is just an advertising mechanism.....

VTY is the avg range of 30m price (in steps, prices increments) range in a day our case price increments, futures its points.

Sounds like you might have been attempting to trade the 3day. Without seeing your chart as you settings may differ, but its not recommend trading the 3 unless the 5 is in agreement and depending where the 3 lays within the 5. May I ask, Were you trading the 5? What was your reasoning? Did the data support the idea to get short? And what was your alert to start looking for a responsive trade, and when to enter?

p.s. I love pandas! Just about everything I do, I do within pandas.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #378
  • Edited 8:18am Nov 13, 2015 5:10am | Edited 8:18am
Hi mzvega,

my strategy yesterday was:

3 or/and 5 day bracket for breakouts and responsive buying/selling.
For example 3 bracket breaks on LLBracket I go short, but the price comes back into bracket and takes my stopp loss on bracket LO.
I go responsive long on bracket LO, but got stopped out again on bracket LL. Net flow was directionaly down, but no activity. I thought the news would bring enough activity for breakouts. But that was not what happening. It was more confusing price mov. stopping me out (range extension).

So you are looking for what the 3 day frame is doing? What do you look for? For a bracketing or trending market? Isnt it logical that, if the 3 day market is trending in direction of the 5 day Bracket limit, than a 5 day breakout maybee coming? The 3 day trending market runs into a pause on the 5 day bracket limit. The next day the 3 day pause is ower and the 5 day bracket breaks out... Do you know what I mean?

I think my problem is, that I dont manage to bring the overlays together, I dont understand the relationship between them. For example: I cant realy explain why we use the 20 day bracket and 10 day bracket, how they affect the 5 day bracket.

Greetings
C
  • #379
  • Nov 13, 2015 10:51am Nov 13, 2015 10:51am
Quoting dljonesFan
Hi mzvega, my strategy yesterday was: 3 or/and 5 day bracket for breakouts and responsive buying/selling. For example 3 bracket breaks on LLBracket I go short, but the price comes back into bracket and takes my stopp loss on bracket LO. I go responsive long on bracket LO, but got stopped out again on bracket LL. Net flow was directionaly down, but no activity. I thought the news would bring enough activity for breakouts. But that was not what happening. It was more confusing price mov. stopping me out (range extension). So you are looking for what...
I'm still trying to repond to your post' but in the mean time this may answer some questions
http://www.cisco-futures.com/respvg.htmlx
http://www.cisco-futures.com/faqd.html
http://www.cisco-futures.com/amva_background.html
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #380
  • Nov 13, 2015 11:06am Nov 13, 2015 11:06am
thank you mzvega have a nice weekend!
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