USD/JPY Discussion

such an awesome NFP release last week. I see we are finally having a go on Dec rate hike.
Long long long!

I like your view on NFP report yesterday .. seems like its not the real numbers .. and yes if USD is keep getting strong it will kill their exports ... Thank you for sharing your view ...

Just a quick questions, What do you mean by UJ is a pair managed by BOJ? Does it means BoJ has more control of UJ rather than both?

Hi Liquidice
Japanese Yen is basically managed currency.BOJ at times does intervene by either selling or buying the Yen.
We have seen multiple times Yen dropping like a rock out of blue without any reason.This could only be result of massive buying by BOJ
Anyway I am short on UJ
REgards

That explains my questions of why out of the sudden, no news, yet UJ is moving erratically ... Thanks a lot Davit ...

My view long term :

So you see 127 within 2 months?

For shortening I think it may happen this week just a brief retracement. As US news seem to be less a driver this week, USD/JPY will have a chance to calm a bit before hitting target 125. It may hover around 123 for now. The question where to enter into a buy? 122.500 I guess we will see how things evolve this coming week.

usdjpy will raise to 125 back in this 2015 year end

Not 2 Months. At least 2 Months I expect a upmove . And yes, my view is 127 may be hit and price may advance further.

USD/JPY

Market Psychology/Sentiment.
The end of the year seasonal trend of buying USD continues against all majors.
Since NFP data was released during the European and US session, therefore Japan, NZ and Aussie banks have yet to respond to the 'sentiment'. Therefore, the next move from them probably is up.
Market has not pricing in 80% probability of rate hike in December. (up from ~30% from few weeks ago)

Market Fundamental

NFP data was good. It was not only good but there are 3 reasons to support into buying USD at least for the next few days (or weeks).
1. previous FOMC clearly stated that they are willing to start raising interest rate in December if the data is good.
2. It is then supported by similar verbal statement by Janet Yellen during last thursday's testify to the House FSA
3. It is support even better with excellent NFP data. It is not only the best data for the year, but more importantly the wage inflation (the one that they're really looking into right now) beats estimate.

If the next data comes bad, then it is the best opportunity to buy USD on dips

Technical Analysis.

The next up move for USD/JPY will be 123.70-80 which correspond to 78% retracement from 125.85 high to the lowest point at 116.08.
This level also corresponds to the 138 fibonacci extension from 116.10 ->121.70 and 161% fibonacci extension from recent 118.05 -> 121.50 move.

Thus 123.80 area may act as a profit taking point. Though, I expect the market will push slightly above and reach 124.05 area before the profit taking begins.

Support
The next short term support should come around 122.50-122.70 area while strong support holds at 121.50-70 area.

But according to the historical trend that occur in May this year, once they breach 123, market tend to squeeze further up little by little.. Every down move are well supported with more buyers coming.

Stochastic
- All time frame is showing overbought, therefore I believe the next up move will last around 123-80-124.10 area only.

RSI
- All time frame approaching overbought but not there yet.

Since the fundamental is strong, the technical indicators will play negligible role here. It can stay at overbought region for an extended period of time.
Market may push the price squeeze little by little further up.

My trading plan..

1. I will look into buying USD during the Asian, European and US session on Monday. After the London close, I will start to take profit and start sell order around 124.10 area.
2. On Tuesday, will start buying any dips and close the sell position from the second half of US session.

Other pair,
I am looking into selling AUD/USD, (due to yet another bad data from China + good NFP). It is highly probable that a new yearly low is coming soon.
I am looking into selling NZD/USD also (higher probability of interest rate cut coming)




Regards

FS

This is what i see:

I was thinking to go selling position for 50 pips. But hearing some opinion, i am confused and most probably will not take any position until strong upward signal.

Friday's better than expected NFP report seems increase the likelihood of the Fed will finally raise interest rates in December, Usd/Jpy could rally further, let's see.

USD/JPY 123.40

No real sellers from Japan corporates as it appears they hedged back at 120-121 zone.

The tone is now bullish unless BOJ changes monetary stance. 130 is probably where BOJ will make some noise albeit muffled.

Check your PM

Looking for a buy as uptrend seem to renew :

Already joined :

Bullish trend is still in place but the upside strength seems slow down at 123.55 handle, if the pair finally manage to break above it, we probably would see the pair extend its gain to 124.00 level.

For scalping today's market is a bit crazy .. keeps on changing direction ... lucky I got out my long position ...