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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #15,061
  • Nov 6, 2015 3:31am Nov 6, 2015 3:31am
Soo, like i said. Its time to make weekly bar "bad looking" and start the correction.
First target 10740.

Then im hoping, we gonna hit 50% of previous monthly bar.

After that, Santa rally

Shorts are ON
  • #15,062
  • Nov 6, 2015 3:33am Nov 6, 2015 3:33am
Quoting deltaone
ranging...
Need one of these..
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  • #15,063
  • Edited 4:08am Nov 6, 2015 3:35am | Edited 4:08am
By comparing the monthly october, november & december candles from the last 15 years the november bar have to shape out also more a downside body before it could fill the white body any longer, if so and even the same focus more on the december candle.
FXcube

DAX, Monthly, 2015 November 06
click to enlarge, please
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  • #15,064
  • Nov 6, 2015 3:40am Nov 6, 2015 3:40am
The market seems now in an status quo that it should be the focus on bigger price movements. Burning money seems easier. So I reduce my risk to max. 1x (or 0.5x) at my swinging trades (1-10 days).
FXcube
  • #15,065
  • Edited 3:56am Nov 6, 2015 3:43am | Edited 3:56am
Quoting Forexcube
The market seems now in an status quo that it should be the focus on bigger price movements. Burning money seems easier. So I reduce my risk to max. 1x (or 0.5x) at my swinging trades (1-10 days). FXcube
Unfortunately for us though we do not have a government backed QE Stimulus Package that funds our trading account when we need more funds.
  • #15,066
  • Nov 6, 2015 3:43am Nov 6, 2015 3:43am
Quoting Forexcube
By comparing the monthly october, november & december candles from the last 15 years the november bar have to shape out also more a downside body before it could fill the white body any longer, if so and even the same focus more on the december candle. Maybe I have more time over the week-end I will upload a chart about this meaning. FXcube

Also looking at the monthly charts, this year's monthly ranges are considerably greater than in previous years....long my that continue!

Could we extrapolate ranges for this month and next month based on this observation....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #15,067
  • Nov 6, 2015 4:00am Nov 6, 2015 4:00am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Hurry up Dax30 - I need to got out soon
Out for +3 only. Dont want the risk, should've exited at 20.35 AEST when it hit 200sma. +38% on account this week. can't complain. trade safe and have a good weekend. Kali Nichta, Dobre Vecer, Auf Wiedersen, Good night!
  • #15,068
  • Nov 6, 2015 4:04am Nov 6, 2015 4:04am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Also looking at the monthly charts, this year's monthly ranges are considerably greater than in previous years....long my that continue! Could we extrapolate ranges for this month and next month based on this observation....


I'm not a friend of regression analysis, Islander.

Before 2007 it was a clear uptrend, in 2008 a powerful downtrend, 2009 & 2010 an uptrend again, and between end of 2011 till 2014 a clear uptrend and now (compare "DAX, Monthly, 2015 November 06" #15'064, please)? Historical data for going up till 15'000 by letting the 10'000 definitively behind? Ambigous situation at the moment.
FXcube
  • #15,069
  • Nov 6, 2015 4:09am Nov 6, 2015 4:09am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Unfortunately for us though we do not have a government backed QE Stimulus Package that funds our trading account when we need more funds.


...we could only make a deposit transfer from one account to the next > zero-sum game and the loss or profit remain the same.
FXcube
  • #15,070
  • Nov 6, 2015 4:16am Nov 6, 2015 4:16am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} ...we could only make a deposit transfer from one account to the next > zero-sum game and the loss or profit remain the same. FXcube
You get the negative deposit rate in Switzerland. So it's minus-sum game.
  • #15,071
  • Nov 6, 2015 4:21am Nov 6, 2015 4:21am
I have been trading with 15 second charts but also revisiting VWAP again for index trading as an indicator of where the volume sits and hence a clue to likely action. Work in progress. Here is an M5 chart from this morning. Note how there was a clear early break down of the VWAP line. The S15 chart showed the entry clearly. Did not manage to ride to the very bottom but still useful. Short timeframe charts are great for perfecting entry times BUT basic trading skills and rules still apply in terms of establish probable direction and identifying set ups. S15 is the there for the finesse. My later trades negated my earlier gains as I did not apply my own rules rigorously enough :-(.

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Also a shot of yesterdays VWAP and potential entries to illustrate the point.

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Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #15,072
  • Nov 6, 2015 4:27am Nov 6, 2015 4:27am
We may well come off a bit here but up to Christmas I suspect we shall see the market heading toward 12,000. With VW having been hit really badly and more bad news being absorbed, one would expect the German market to be weaker. One of the few things I have learnt (I am a slow learner) over the years is that a market that stays up or dips slightly on bad news and uses any good news to rocket up is intrinsically very strong. With the banks pumping money like maniacs and the wall of cash looking for a home I think anyone shorting up to Christmas is going to need some valium. I scalp short term (M1 and M5) and trade longer D1 and W1. The second based on my reading of the tape and PA.

By the way, if anyone ever wants to read a really great book about markets and tape reading, may I suggest " Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre. Written in 1923 its a thinly disguised biography of the great Jesse Livermore. I learnt more from that book then any other and the older I get, the more true it is despite the fact that it was written over 90 years ago.
  • #15,073
  • Nov 6, 2015 5:36am Nov 6, 2015 5:36am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} ...we could only make a deposit transfer from one account to the next > zero-sum game and the loss or profit remain the same. FXcube
Stop trying to guess when we are going to raise rates and just keep buying into this bubble 😛
Smart people just buy without trying to figure out what will happen next lol. We may just continue to print money and never raise rates🙄 . Fed and government know what buyers are trying to figure out and they play the market like a yo yo to get you to lose money trying to guess their next move.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...-is-misleading
  • #15,074
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:33am Nov 6, 2015 7:33am


event-driven volatility breakout

http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealT...g&purpose=file

long from 14:31:17 -> 14:33:02 with sl/tp -20/+60
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #15,075
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:46am Nov 6, 2015 7:46am
Mmm. 10 minutes of having orders rejected and not being able to execute orders at Dukascopy. They are good with FX, not good with anything else. Very frustrating having waited so long. Out of interest how did folks with IG Index get along with orders after the news? Were they executed and at the price expected?
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #15,076
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:52am Nov 6, 2015 7:52am
Quoting revoli
Mmm. 10 minutes of having orders rejected and not being able to execute orders at Dukascopy. They are good with FX, not good with anything else. Very frustrating having waited so long. Out of interest how did folks with IG Index get along with orders after the news? Were they executed and at the price expected?
as always - excellent execution
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #15,077
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:54am Nov 6, 2015 7:54am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Out for +3 only. Dont want the risk, should've exited at 20.35 AEST when it hit 200sma. +38% on account this week. can't complain. trade safe and have a good weekend. Kali Nichta, Dobre Vecer, Auf Wiedersen, Good night!
same to you, pari!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #15,078
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:58am Nov 6, 2015 7:58am
Quoting deltaone
event-driven volatility breakout http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealT...g&purpose=file long from 14:31:17 -> 14:33:02 with sl/tp -20/+60
That was superb... Came home. Bagged a nice +20. I love you my sweety pie Dax30.
  • #15,079
  • Nov 6, 2015 8:01am Nov 6, 2015 8:01am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} That was superb... Came home. Bagged a nice +20. I love you my sweety pie Dax30.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #15,080
  • Nov 6, 2015 8:08am Nov 6, 2015 8:08am
dow is moving down, dax moving up...
very strange moves...
meine augen sind die sterne
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