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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #15,021
  • Nov 5, 2015 8:51pm Nov 5, 2015 8:51pm
US Treasuries on the rise, market is pricing a 0.15% rate hike so far:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rat...nment-bonds/us

Danger time Equities.
  • #15,022
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:45am Nov 6, 2015 12:45am
I got a feeling we may shed over 1% today. My bet is on a minimum of -.50% drop on Index although I feel that -1-2% is possible today and if not today then Monday. I am opening a short position for the DAX at opening.
  • #15,023
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:57am Nov 6, 2015 12:57am
Quoting stylinex
I got a feeling we may shed over 1% today. My bet is on a minimum of -.50% drop on Index although I feel that -1-2% is possible today and if not today then Monday. I am opening a short position for the DAX at opening.
If you do that maybe wait for Industrial Prodn numbers - it might spike up on pretrade open (3mins).
  • #15,024
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:03am Nov 6, 2015 1:03am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} If you do that maybe wait for Industrial Prodn numbers - it might spike up on pretrade open (3mins).
Or just head down... my bad
  • #15,025
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:10am Nov 6, 2015 1:10am
In at 10897 for a short position. If it spikes up then I lose.
  • #15,026
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:15am Nov 6, 2015 1:15am
Quoting stylinex
In at 10897 for a short position. If it spikes up then I lose.
Can see this going to 10855 at least (200sma on 1H). That might be my first mini long entry if the price action slows down.

But always stick to your guns with your short trades if you think its heading lower!
  • #15,027
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:19am Nov 6, 2015 1:19am
I agree with those of you who think we are heading for a fall, the H4 chart is the one which looks like this is setting up nicely - a new high on the 28th, another one on the 2nd, then sideways for a couple of days before dipping a bit, and then the failure to get anywhere yesterday except down before rallying and being held by the 76.4%. It may not be today and of course we have Non Farms later, so anything can happen, A good fall though would not surprise me at as both the Dax and Dow look ripe for it technically. On the other hand, we can rally again back up towards 18,000 on the Dow, and 11,000 on the Dax, so just have to wait and see how it plays out.

ps - on the upside, the trend line drawn from the high on Oct 23rd gives a nice run through to today's R2 ( 11,061 ) if we do push up again later. On the downside we've got yesterday's support which was the H1 200ema which today sits at 10,812 on my charts. Below that, if we really tank, and the next line of support I've got it is the H2 200ema which is sitting atm on top of S3 @ 10,614.
  • #15,028
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:29am Nov 6, 2015 1:29am
Quoting cat
I agree with those of you who think we are heading for a fall, the H4 chart is the one which looks like this is setting up nicely - a new high on the 28th, another one on the 2nd, then sideways for a couple of days before dipping a bit, and then the failure to get anywhere yesterday except down before rallying and being held by the 76.4%. It may not be today and of course we have Non Farms later, so anything can happen, A good fall though would not surprise me at as both the Dax and Dow look ripe for it technically. On the other hand, we can rally...
I still like buying the dips... I don't read into market pricing of US Treasuries as a potential rate hike in US next month, despite it being a warning sign. Its been a warning sign to cut rates in Oz for the last 4 months, and the other market indicators do not suggest the need for a rate cut in Oz, just like the US doesnt have the right indicators at present with inflation to warrant a rate hike. I still think this is a bull market to early/mid next year. But that's just my opinion.
  • #15,029
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:35am Nov 6, 2015 1:35am
GM - updated Daily Charts. The Dow has been rallying faster than Dax ( GA +59 vs GA +49) and has now stalled at the mid point of its six month range from earlier in the year.

Dax has rallied more slowly and only retraced ~55% of its fall, which is only ~23% into its shorter period of range trading.

Both are IMO looking ready for a pull back. TWT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nov6 dax dow dly.png Size: 95 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #15,030
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:37am Nov 6, 2015 1:37am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I still like buying the dips... I don't read into market pricing of US Treasuries as a potential rate hike in US next month, despite it being a warning sign. Its been a warning sign to cut rates in Oz for the last 4 months, and the other market indicators do not suggest the need for a rate cut in Oz, just like the US doesnt have the right indicators at present with inflation to warrant a rate hike. I still think this is a bull market to early/mid next year. But that's just my opinion.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #15,031
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:39am Nov 6, 2015 1:39am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I still like buying the dips... I don't read into market pricing of US Treasuries as a potential rate hike in US next month, despite it being a warning sign. Its been a warning sign to cut rates in Oz for the last 4 months, and the other market indicators do not suggest the need for a rate cut in Oz, just like the US doesnt have the right indicators at present with inflation to warrant a rate hike. I still think this is a bull market to early/mid next year. But that's just my opinion.
Buying the dips is smart during the last quarter of the year when most manufacturers have their highest sales numbers. Helps when QE is in place too.
  • #15,032
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:41am Nov 6, 2015 1:41am
Quoting Islander
GM - updated Daily Charts. The Dow has been rallying faster than Dax ( GA +59 vs GA +49) and has now stalled at the mid point of its six month range from earlier in the year. Dax has rallied more slowly and only retraced ~55% of its fall, which is only ~23% into its shorter period of range trading. Both are IMO looking ready for a pull back. TWT {image}
If it breaks one of those trendlines convincingly, then yes, this market could pullback a bit... But still think its a bull market from here to next several months.
  • #15,033
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:43am Nov 6, 2015 1:43am
I am playing the DAX short with target ~ 10600
  • #15,034
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:47am Nov 6, 2015 1:47am
Quoting Mingary
I am playing the DAX short with target ~ 10600
Not sure if we get to 10,600 but that would not be too bad of a small pullback during this bull market. I bought conservatively today in case it spikes the other way as usual. Most likely go my way since I bought so little lol.. Had I bought a shit load it would have for sure just flown the opposite direction lol..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,035
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:51am Nov 6, 2015 1:51am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} If it breaks one of those trendlines convincingly, then yes, this market could pullback a bit... But still think its a bull market from here to next several months.
I ment to mention the falling Trend Lines on both hourly charts from Wednesday's highs thru yesterday's Lower highs.

The Dow's is at ~17,880 and Dax's at ~10,940 and with the lower lows also in place, clear down trending channels are developing and these will be worth watching.

Either way, for me, these are rather too far out timewise to be of great importance for my Intra Day Trading - especially now that I have been persuaded to try the 15 sec charts....its fatal to have a bias when trading of these very short TFs
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #15,036
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:51am Nov 6, 2015 1:51am
HI Traders,

I have been reading with great interest on the thread. I have attached my thoughts for the day for the DAX as per below chart. It's a 15pts mean renko. Waiting for the London open to see the price action. Any thoughts are welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30M2_6 Nov 2015.png Size: 47 KB
The market pays you to be disciplined
  • #15,037
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:51am Nov 6, 2015 1:51am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I still like buying the dips... I don't read into market pricing of US Treasuries as a potential rate hike in US next month, despite it being a warning sign. Its been a warning sign to cut rates in Oz for the last 4 months, and the other market indicators do not suggest the need for a rate cut in Oz, just like the US doesnt have the right indicators at present with inflation to warrant a rate hike. I still think this is a bull market to early/mid next year. But that's just my opinion.
Looking forward so do I, my post was for today only. It's futile to attempt to look an further than the day in front of you, it is for me anyway.
  • #15,038
  • Edited 2:10am Nov 6, 2015 1:59am | Edited 2:10am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Not sure if we get to 10,600 but that would not be too bad of a small pullback during this bull market. I bought conservatively today in case it spikes the other way as usual. Most likely go my way since I bought so little lol.. Had I bought a shit load it would have for sure just flown the opposite direction lol.. {image}
I am not committed yet. must go up before I sell ... around 10905 at the time of this post.
But we all know about:


In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft a-gley,
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promised joy.

(:
  • #15,039
  • Edited 2:49am Nov 6, 2015 2:00am | Edited 2:49am
Quoting TraderInc
HI Traders, I have been reading with great interest on the thread. I have attached my thoughts for the day for the DAX as per below chart. It's a 15pts mean renko. Waiting for the London open to see the price action. Any thoughts are welcome. {image}
Welcome to the thread - its always interesting to see Renko / Range Bar charts and I too will be watching the PA around yesterday afternoon's lows - if we get there!

Now for XO....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #15,040
  • Nov 6, 2015 2:11am Nov 6, 2015 2:11am
Morning,
Shorting dax all the way. Weekly bar should be bad. Time for correction
It wont be easy, but once it starts, should go smooth.

Dax Short 10855
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