The Really Useless Thread | Page 6881 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,601
  • Nov 4, 2015 12:26pm Nov 4, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
The second time this year we trade an NFP that the FED has tied serious, direct implications behind. The last time (7 August.) the number was a slight +-10k miss(215, 222 expected.) but I saw it as strong enough for the FED's worded criteria (some further improvement...
Indeed.

--> We may get a dead cat bounce to the 1.12xx handle (technically the 1.14xx is still v marginally open as for today). Despite the surprising numbers today most serious forecast are aligned for a bit softer/inline core US numbers (inflation/employment) these coming weeks. However, the trigger for the mid term leg may come from the euro side (ECB) not necessarily from the dollar (FED).

--> Markets rate and 'trust' the ECB a lot more than the FED since Yellen took over. At the same time the ECB has always "put the money where the mouth is" and the last massive game changer (last ECB conference) is weighing heavily across the board (equities rallied in manic mode and euro buyers vanished from all fronts).

--> A flop in German numbers next week will be enough to guarantee ECB going all in December but more importantly the board is aligning in favour of equites (surprise surprise the bastards are going to make a killer year).

--> A ECB QE + rate cuts will perfectly allow the FED to hike DEC too as it will offset most of the hike impact leaving equities pretty much 'unch' (wide chop zone) while buffering the short term 'tsunami' in dollar and in particular EURO (it will get hit in both fronts) .

Whatever the case, the perfect storm is aligning in the Euro...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,602
  • Nov 4, 2015 12:57pm Nov 4, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed. --> We may get a dead cat bounce to the 1.12xx handle (technically the 1.14xx is still v marginally open as for today). Despite the surprising numbers today most serious forecast are aligned for a bit softer/inline core US numbers (inflation/employment) these coming weeks. However, the trigger for the mid term leg may come from the euro side (ECB) not necessarily from the dollar (FED). --> Markets rate and 'trust' the ECB a lot more than the FED since Yellen took over. At the same time the ECB has always "put the money where...
Sisse, I know/hope you will post some info concerning the NFP/inflation when it comes but just from a more generall view.... the 1.12xx level seems to me awfully too high if you look at D,W as per today - what fundamentally you see that could allow it - miss in NFP/miss in Inflation/inline NFP/inline inflation?? in case we keep the EUR side in ceteris paribus.

to me it seems -

1. scenario: extreme case of monetary divergence === DEC hike FED (inline/better NFP +inf.) + DEC ECB easing (maybe confirmed next week as you say by GER data) - on condition that no other FA change = mid term swing starts very soon without any big retrace/bounce (1.12xx non-reachable) and the start is gonna be marked with W close under 1.082 - leg is gonna be sharp/fast

2. scenarion: strong case of monetary divergence === 2016 FED hike (miss NFP/inflation) + DEC ECB easing - more stronger retrace/bounce but the mid term leg starts anyway (as you pointed out too) given the ECB role + FED joins later during the leg = mid term leg - not as sharp/fast as in case one.

3. scenario: extreme monetary divergence postponed: ECB + FED move action into Q1 2016 - price action, which could retrace/bounce as high as 1.12xx with possible dead cat bounce till ECB and FED kill it.

The scenarions are listed from most probable to least probable. Plus of course may happen that ECB never loosens and FED never tightens but lets stay with the real ones.

Do you agree? any thoughts?

Plus maybe if u have a minute: what are ur levels for the mid term parity leg (the one we talk about, whatever the name)? last time u posted 1.074x + 1.016x as levels in play till the year end.... but I bet the leg is gonna go much lower.

Thank you
  • #137,603
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:46pm Nov 4, 2015 1:46pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} ... the 1.12xx level seems to me awfully too high if you look at D,W as per today - what fundamentally you see that could allow it - miss in NFP/miss in Inflation/inline NFP/inline inflation?? in case we keep the EUR side in ceteris paribus. to me it seems -
An undershoot in NFP shorter term and/or a strong German numbers for profit taking (we are +600 ticks and counting since ECB initial reaction) ...a dead cat bounce will only give a final chance to load heavy before the momentum break (1.073x) but its not a necessary condition as we already have the Q high set already and all the major FA on the table. 1.073x is naked now after todays break down ... a clean sweep in this move first to that level will cap even lower the bounce...

Quote
... scenario: extreme case of monetary divergence === DEC hike FED (inline/better NFP +inf.) + DEC ECB easing ....

All your scenarios only affect the timing (one more short term chop range to load or a clean sweep) not the outcome. In my books, we will need something else from somewhere (an unexpected externality, etc) to change the outcome. TA wise it will get 'easier' to see but 'harder to trade and reload once we break down on the mid term leg.

Quote
... but I bet the leg is gonna go much lower. Thank you

Yes. The full mid term swing is aiming for 0.98xx but that is locked for this year. Below that, there is a bit too far in time and in fundamentals but there is a potential extension to 0.91xx (very locked and not in play at all for the 'foreseeable' realistic trading future... 2017 maybe?)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,604
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:56pm Nov 4, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} An undershoot in NFP shorter term and/or a strong German numbers for profit taking (we are +600 ticks and counting since ECB initial reaction) ...a dead cat bounce will only give a final chance to load heavy before the momentum break (1.073x) but its not a necessary condition as we already have the Q high set already and all the major FA on the table. 1.073x is naked now after todays break down ... a clean sweep in this move first to that level will cap even lower the bounce... {quote} All your scenarios only affect the timing (one more...
All right, amazing clarification as always - basically it seems we are on the same page. Thank you
  • #137,605
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:58pm Nov 4, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} All right, amazing clarification as always - basically it seems we are on the same page. Thank you
Yeap... actively looking for positons in the euro since last week close . I flatten out 1.094x last week... not in hurry though and NFP still to come first ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,606
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:03pm Nov 4, 2015 2:03pm
thanks Sisse for explanation
  • #137,607
  • Edited 7:12pm Nov 4, 2015 3:18pm | Edited 7:12pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Silver has a path to 14.70, then to 16.88 Don't count the big wick, it was on the nuclear news....massive re-positioning yadda yadda
for reference

the "big wick" is the above 1x target
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAGUSDiH4.png Size: 56 KB
  • #137,608
  • Nov 4, 2015 4:15pm Nov 4, 2015 4:15pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed. --> We may get a dead cat bounce to the 1.12xx handle (technically the 1.14xx is still v marginally open as for today). Despite the surprising numbers today most serious forecast are aligned for a bit softer/inline core US numbers (inflation/employment) these coming weeks. However, the trigger for the mid term leg may come from the euro side (ECB) not necessarily from the dollar (FED). --> Markets rate and 'trust' the ECB a lot more than the FED since Yellen took over. At the same time the ECB has always "put the money where the...
Agree with you that it's more about the soft Euro story than anything else. Draghi really went to town and he hasn't dissapointed yet while it's been mixed messages galore on the other side of the ditch throughout the year. I do like some of the forward guidance though (on paper.) and I enjoyed the last (concise.) statement.

At least our threats on the Euro support side can be scoped out. Equity resistance for profit taking (1110 on DAX.) along with the dead cat bounce on Fiber? and I suppose the SNB are going to get involved at some later stage for some more Draghi Damage Control so it may pay to keep eyes on E/CH for when/where they're likely to step in.

Definitely appears to be a perfect storm and monetary policy divergence in play as Chester puts it. Heavy roadblocks from nearby technical support might make this easier to manage for the mid-term leg instead of just flushing the lows/space/air.
  • #137,609
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:44pm Nov 4, 2015 8:44pm
Quarterly outlook of S&P 500 (futures) over past 3 years.
Expect this quarterly roll to be a very nasty one as the tech is very limited upside.
could be 2020 for the quarter close next month
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #137,610
  • Nov 4, 2015 9:30pm Nov 4, 2015 9:30pm
Great views and analysis on this thread, as always. Thanks to Sisse and everyone. We don't have to all agree all the time but it sure is interesting seeing what other traders think about it all.

For what it's worth, here is my current view on the bigger picture. It's based purely on technical analysis of the relationship between price and volume, and is more long term than short:

S&P: very bearish; as far as I can see the big boys have been distributing this market for months.
Gold: slightly bullish
Oil: bullish
EUR.USD: currently bearish, but longer term bullish
GBP.USD: neutral
AUD.USD: very bearish
USD.JPY: bearish
Nikkei: currently bullish, longer term unclear

I realise that some of these predictions contradict each other, so I probably won't win on all of them. Also I can't predict when and at what price the pivots occur (if I could I'd be the richest man in the world ). But placing a portfolio of small positions and giving them the space and time to work is a good approach to long-term trading.
You reap what you sow.
  • #137,611
  • Nov 5, 2015 1:25pm Nov 5, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Thanks for your updates. On my side, I have the feeling we need a weekly close below 1114/15 to get an extension to last summer lows 1070/80 GL {image}
1092/90 is an area to try next long
69
  • #137,612
  • Nov 5, 2015 3:42pm Nov 5, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting USD-Bear
trying to build a LT short position in Bunds BUND D1: {image}
collected half @ 156.20
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,613
  • Nov 5, 2015 4:19pm Nov 5, 2015 4:19pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} collected half @ 156.20
You may have a diamond with that position. It looks extremely good that trade. 155.8x is the rain maker. A W break opens the mid term leg to 145.7x and it set to be a super sharp and fast leg (DEC QE here we come?).

For now all eyes 157.1x for the W roll for a test 154.9x with max ext 151.4 before DEC ECB...

Very good eye spotting that superb setup. I just put FGBL back in the trading workspace as it definitely looks as a clean play(s) for the next couple of months ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,614
  • Nov 5, 2015 4:41pm Nov 5, 2015 4:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} You may have a diamond with that position. It looks extremely good that trade. 155.8x is the rain maker. A W break opens the mid term leg to 145.7x and it set to be a super sharp and fast leg (DEC QE here we come?). For now all eyes 157.1x for the W roll for a test 154.9x with max ext 151.4 before DEC ECB... Very good eye spotting that superb setup. I just put FGBL back in the trading workspace as it definitely looks as a clean play(s) for the next couple of months ... sisse
thanks sisse for your kind words and analyses.
I'm pretty confident Bunds will offer a major play (maybe) next year, but have to realize we are fighting Draghi atm so have to be patient
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,615
  • Nov 5, 2015 4:58pm Nov 5, 2015 4:58pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ..I think you meant "because of the ECB announcement not the FED
You're right, typo, pardon.

E/U @ major decision point; thats what I got so far; TP short: 1.0675; TP long: 1.1075
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 93 KB
  • #137,616
  • Nov 6, 2015 3:55am Nov 6, 2015 3:55am
a turn around 12.150 would be nice

USDOLLAR D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0085.png Size: 65 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,617
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:24am Nov 6, 2015 7:24am
here we go again, This time for a rather important NFP given the FED last meting.

--> On the fundamental side, expecting a inline or slightly worst numbers but also a positve revision to the upside from the last numbers. More than any implications in macro numbers (the employment trend is strong, consistent and solid to even consider any softening in the US), the key impact is on the rates. Tracking RMT in play with any overshot as it will become one of the best times to preempt the DEC hikes moves.

--->On the technical side, US equites as widely expected sitting on key 2100.xx for the news/open. Dollar on the brink of a clean sweep while gold still with some room to complete the first target before rates.

---> For the actual flows and news plays in the euro. Three scenarios in play form the least to the most probable:

- An overshoot will trigger a clean sweep in dollar that will carry the rest of the board. In the euro, is direct trade (1.087x) -> 1.074x to sit there until key european numbers next week.

- A miss/undershot with a revision down opens profit taking in euro for a quick retrace to 1.110x with intermediate stop at 1.094x (today) and max extension the lows of the 1.12xx handle for the next few sessions.

- Inline/ slighlight better revision. Open a delay zigzag move as nobody will step in to buy today, leaving the euro felt on inertia to 1.074x and unlock profit taking and a potential dead cat bounce (1.094x with ext 1.110x) with European numbers next week before the momentum leg for DEC.

Plenty of trades and options across the board. Here managing GOLD, trading the Euro and tracking Equities for the close.... GL all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,618
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:31am Nov 6, 2015 7:31am
...uffff. massive overshoot ....best numbers in a long long time...

Hikes here we come..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,619
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:32am Nov 6, 2015 7:32am
MASSIVE OVERSHOOOT!!!

Quoting sisse
...uffff. massive overshoot ....best numbers in a long long time... Hikes here we come.. sisse
Just a Minor Question tho Sisse, Will Equities across board enter RMT ? or will it prefer to stay in chop cause of ECB coming QE?

Fundamentally, I think Equities will see strong profit taking from below, but with QE from ECB it is likely to stay in wide chop with more momentum to come down rather than more up (since we have major resistance above). How about your point of view?
Thank you,
  • #137,620
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:38am Nov 6, 2015 7:38am
silver in norm
14 traders viewing now