Thankyou emmanuel greatly appreciated
- #62,303
- Edited 10:21pm Oct 30, 2015 10:02pm | Edited 10:21pm
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,189 Posts
Tough month end closing for many traders. Some simply held on to trades and failed to see when their trades get invalidated by the market. This s a common problem when traders formed a mental bias so strong and held on to their belief. There is danger known as recency bias.
USDCAD is a good example. I had buy positions after the setup on 19 Oct. Since that 20 Oct, D1 was bullish and no reason to sell on lower TF H1 even when there were several H4 sell setups. We should use the lower TF H1 to build position and later to scale-in more positions.
Yesterday's D1 closed is a technical trade invalidation of the 19 Oct buy setup for several reasons shown on the chart below.
Next week, early opening week would be sell bias, but note that the MN is still bullish but start to go sideways and in a good range for some 4H swing trading. The support is near 1.2900 but we must watch the nearer BRN 1.3000 and the also market sentiments next week/month. The next historical S&R is 1.2720.
A move to the upside will require at minimum 2 to 3 D1 candles bullish reversal.
USDCAD is a good example. I had buy positions after the setup on 19 Oct. Since that 20 Oct, D1 was bullish and no reason to sell on lower TF H1 even when there were several H4 sell setups. We should use the lower TF H1 to build position and later to scale-in more positions.
Yesterday's D1 closed is a technical trade invalidation of the 19 Oct buy setup for several reasons shown on the chart below.
Next week, early opening week would be sell bias, but note that the MN is still bullish but start to go sideways and in a good range for some 4H swing trading. The support is near 1.2900 but we must watch the nearer BRN 1.3000 and the also market sentiments next week/month. The next historical S&R is 1.2720.
A move to the upside will require at minimum 2 to 3 D1 candles bullish reversal.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
- #62,304
- Oct 31, 2015 5:06am Oct 31, 2015 5:06am
Tough month end closing for many traders. Some simply held on to trades and failed to see when their trades get invalidated by the market. This s a common problem when traders formed a mental bias so strong and held on to their belief. There is danger known as recency bias. USDCAD is a good example. I had buy positions after the setup on 19 Oct. Since that 20 Oct, D1 was bullish and no reason to sell on lower TF H1 even when there were several H4 sell setups. We should use the lower TF H1 to build position and later to scale-in more positions. Yesterday's...
If I may a note ,the weekly resitance was also respected from pivot view
as you told before looking at bigger picture , thats absolute right
have a nice weekend , everybody
from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
- #62,305
- Oct 31, 2015 5:28am Oct 31, 2015 5:28am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,189 Posts
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
- #62,306
- Oct 31, 2015 5:35am Oct 31, 2015 5:35am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,189 Posts
To answer one PM on trade invalidation for H4 trading. It is the same basic principle to use the H4 setups to invalidate previous trade setups as well as the price action to exit the market.
Remember, we keep things as simple as possible. 4H swing trading is to capture the weekly swings during the trading week of 5 days. Most 4H swing trades will run 2 to 4 days and should be closed before the weekend. We only keep trades open over the weekend only after we convert the 4H swing trades to Position trades which we do on the D1 chart TF.
Always remember when we trade the H4, we must also pay attention to the Day open and close. When the new day fails to make higher high on 2 consecutive days, we should be prepared to exit the market because we are trailing using the 2-days look back.
Remember, we keep things as simple as possible. 4H swing trading is to capture the weekly swings during the trading week of 5 days. Most 4H swing trades will run 2 to 4 days and should be closed before the weekend. We only keep trades open over the weekend only after we convert the 4H swing trades to Position trades which we do on the D1 chart TF.
Always remember when we trade the H4, we must also pay attention to the Day open and close. When the new day fails to make higher high on 2 consecutive days, we should be prepared to exit the market because we are trailing using the 2-days look back.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
- #62,307
- Oct 31, 2015 8:41am Oct 31, 2015 8:41am
{quote} Hi Tss Be careful of buying Gold ! Gold is going to complete it's 5 wave in the channel an I think it will fall to 1120 That is also the bottom of the channel and 61 Fibo ! regards {image}
Gold
The blue rectangle is a dangerous zone to trade! I'm still looking for a sell at this area if price reches but pay attention !
E/U
I'm still a seller. i think price is retracing to the channel after breaking it and continue to it's down trend.
Green pips to all of you
best regards.
- #62,308
- Oct 31, 2015 10:37am Oct 31, 2015 10:37am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,045 Posts
{quote} Hi to all TMS traders Gold The blue rectangle is a dangerous zone to trade! I'm still looking for a sell at this area if price reches but pay attention ! {image} E/U I'm still a seller. i think price is retracing to the channel after breaking it and continue to it's down trend. {image} Green pips to all of you best regards.
I was thinking the same thing. Breakout-pullback-continuation. On D1, I see PA has already retraced and got a rejection by the channel (TL in my case), which is also a good confluence point with the resistance, which is a strong one, considering it had many rejections in the past and has already been used as both support and resistance, marked by the aqua line on my chart. That is the exact last month's low.
Moving to the H4 chart, I see more confluence, because we've already had a rejection by the high of the WRB, marked by the two yellow lines with three dots on them. I want to see a red APB close on the other side of the PAC now.
And even more interesting, PA is in a symmetrical triangle on H4, and the divergence acts as more confirmation for the bears.
Friday and Thursday are contained within the MC from Wednesday. When MC's low is broken, I am hoping to see EU falling.
EDIT: Regarding the H4 WRB, we must look for entries on H1, as per Big Emm's teachings. But it has already happened, and I missed it. That is why I said I am now looking for a red APB to close on the other side of the PAC on H4. Or PA to retrace on H1 and then I will look for shorts.
- #62,309
- Edited 12:30pm Oct 31, 2015 12:18pm | Edited 12:30pm
{quote} moin If I may a note ,the weekly resitance was also respected from pivot view {image} as you told before looking at bigger picture , thats absolute right have a nice weekend , everybody
how EMM explained well in # POST 62305, here my remark how tools may work for tp (resistance) in this case
as you can see ATR works well like EMM said , my setting is 12 weeks , most conservative tool here.
Or fib extantion - from low to first swing high of impulsleg down to bottom of retrace - so tp 1.618 works too.
3. in this case works very well - pivot weekly resistance 2.
If somebody saw this - he/she had a good clue whats possible after reaching this level .
See my # post 62204 entry USDCAD works well , but I was to stupid with my tp , so gave to much money back to Mr.Market
like often said in this thread - keep things simple.
so now preparing for Rugby final
nice weekend
HPT
from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
- #62,311
- Oct 31, 2015 7:00pm Oct 31, 2015 7:00pm
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,189 Posts
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
- #62,313
- Nov 1, 2015 7:19am Nov 1, 2015 7:19am
{quote} I was trying martingale when I did not even know someone else thought about it before me. I thought I must be the smartest person on the face of the Earth for cracking the code. It seemed that there was no way I could have ended a day in a loss. And I was lucky. You know why? Because when I put the strategy into practice, I got a few days of ranging markets. And I mean really small range. They did not move at all. I should have stayed awake for days, in order to double the positions (a bot would be better at this). But my account would have...
Looks like I'll have to change my strategy to PA (Whatever that is but I'll figure it out).
Anyway, thanks for your advice. It was helpful.
- #62,316
- Nov 1, 2015 2:47pm Nov 1, 2015 2:47pm
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,680 Posts
Hello Everyone! I just wanted to pop in & say hello! ( I used to be snarlyjack, then snarlyjack1, then snarlyjack2, now I'm up to snarlyjack3) (Apparently, I keep forgetting my password?) Anyway, I'm still trading the system (TMS 5 method & Synergy Pro) for years now. I'm still profitable & trade full time for my living. I just wanted to give everyone encouragement! The system works & continues to work! I live in the West Coast of the USA & trade exactly how Eelfranz first posted the system using the 4 hour charts. Having traded both systems (The...
Sad i'm not trying to understand PA
- #62,317
- Nov 1, 2015 2:58pm Nov 1, 2015 2:58pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,045 Posts
{quote} Well, That was disappointing. I was very hopeful it'll work. Oh well, I guess broken heart is better than going broke
- #62,318
- Nov 1, 2015 3:04pm Nov 1, 2015 3:04pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,045 Posts
Hi, I am a beginner in this trading method. EU Will it be a good trade if i go short in H1 or shld i wait for a breakout in H4? Please guide. {image}
So am I.
I still have a lot to learn.On H1 the train has left the station. You have already had an APB closing on the other side of the channel. It's better to wait for a pullback and then look for short signal again. Or, just as you said, wait for a valid signal on H4. Whichever suits your style. Anyway since you mentioned you are new to TMS, I am sure you are on demo, right? That would be the smart thing to do. Going live now would be a big "NO".
