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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #14,621
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:31pm Oct 30, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting cat
{quote} nonsense. Hope combined with objectivity and realistic expectations is the essence of trading. If you don't hope that your trades will hit your TP, what else do you do? As long as hope goes hand in hand with strict money management and discipline, then it is a normal human emotion for a trader. It takes on negative connotations when the latter two break down.
dum spiro, spero (typos everywhere )
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,622
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:37pm Oct 30, 2015 12:37pm
a little bit sad - missed a good sell signal (18:04/05 cet). next...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,623
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:39pm Oct 30, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting cat
{quote} nonsense. Hope combined with objectivity and realistic expectations is the essence of trading. If you don't hope that your trades will hit your TP, what else do you do? As long as hope goes hand in hand with strict money management and discipline, then it is a normal human emotion for a trader. It takes on negative connotations when the latter two break down.
From personal experience hope does never result in anything good. In trading hope has been one of my hugest struggles. Hope is for me something religious. Well of course it is a positive thought to think of profit.

But when I enter a position it is because I expect the price to go in my favor, i don't hope the price will go into my direction. Over the last year I will guarantee you retail traders have hoped the price reached its bottom in euro dollar which has been a consistent loosing currency cross.

Based on a huge move i don't enter in the reverse direction just because the move was abnormally strong and the instruments average range is crushed, which hope would make me do.

Im not sure what you are doing but I manage risk but still aint making a entry based on hope but rather on statistical research of price action.

Hope is always going to get your back, my grandmother had lung cancer of course i wanted her to get cancer free but if i had a strong hope i would get crushed, I expected her not to recover based on various factors related to her lifestyle and was prepared to lose her, she was doing the exact same thing, she fought but didnt hope to much.

Also hope goes hand in hand with luck, everyone hopes to win in lottery, i dont hope to earn from trading, i expect to earn.

Sorry if i offended anyone that was not my intention.

sincerely
  • #14,624
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:44pm Oct 30, 2015 12:44pm
short @17789,1 sl -20 tp +60
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,625
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:46pm Oct 30, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting NWGstudent
{quote} From personal experience hope does never result in anything good. In trading hope has been one of my hugest struggles. Hope is for me something religious. Well of course it is a positive thought to think of profit. But when I enter a position it is because I expect the price to go in my favor, i don't hope the price will go into my direction. Over the last year I will guarantee you retail traders have hoped the price reached its bottom in euro dollar which has been a consistent loosing currency cross. Based on a huge move i don't enter in...

Also in addition. I do pretty much use structures to take profit, I move my stops into profit zone and let the trade run until i see changes in market sentiment where i exit, without a target.
  • #14,626
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:54pm Oct 30, 2015 12:54pm
Quoting NWGstudent
{quote} Why would you hope? trading with hope is like gambling and hoping for either red or black in roulette
It seemed the reaction to this level was quite severe this morning as I noted when it retraced to it at 61.8 fib. I placed a new s/l here and have now quit until I see a significant change
  • #14,627
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:02pm Oct 30, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting NWGstudent
{quote} Also in addition. I do pretty much use structures to take profit, I move my stops into profit zone and let the trade run until i see changes in market sentiment where i exit, without a target.
no need to justify your trading style - setups vary a lot among traders. just show your trades in real time and it´s all fine. good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,628
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:02pm Oct 30, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting NWGstudent
{quote} But when I enter a position it is because I expect the price to go in my favor
Problem is, if you expect something is going to happen and it doesn't, you are likely to be disappointed, so i think expect is the wrong word. Of course, it is better as a trader not to have any emotions, just enter and exit trades strictly according to your methodology, but as we are not like Spok from star trek, as humans this is not something we are able to do easily, which is one of the things that makes trading so hard. As long as any trade that we do take has a good rationale behind it, then watching the price go off in our direction will always be coupled with a degree of hope that it will continue to do so until out TP is reached. How can we have any other emotion in such a situation, unless we are robots. You seem to be using the negative connotation for hope, which is a sort of fool's paradise type meaning, which may be relevant if we are talking about traders who have no strategy and inadequate knowledge of the markets, but I am talking about the other side of hope, that which we must have in all areas of life, not just trading, the faith, aspiration, confidence and belief in our ability that supersede hope on any individual score and which overrides any short term disappointment we may feel when things don't go our way, which in trading, they often don't as we all know. Hope is definitely a good thing, for without it, we are hopeless.
  • #14,629
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:06pm Oct 30, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting deltaone
short @17789,1 sl -20 tp +60
nasty candle for shorts @19:02, but without continuation. market searching direction. sma100 tested again -> sl to be.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,630
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:18pm Oct 30, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Problem is, if you expect something is going to happen and it doesn't, you are likely to be disappointed, so i think expect is the wrong word. Of course, it is better as a trader not to have any emotions, just enter and exit trades strictly according to your methodology, but as we are not like Spok from star trek, as humans this is not something we are able to do easily, which is one of the things that makes trading so hard. As long as any trade that we do take has a good rationale behind it, then watching the price go off in our...


http://img.memecdn.com/spock-meme_o_2745781.jpg
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,631
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:19pm Oct 30, 2015 1:19pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Problem is, if you expect something is going to happen and it doesn't, you are likely to be disappointed, so i think expect is the wrong word. Of course, it is better as a trader not to have any emotions, just enter and exit trades strictly according to your methodology, but as we are not like Spok from star trek, as humans this is not something we are able to do easily, which is one of the things that makes trading so hard. As long as any trade that we do take has a good rationale behind it, then watching the price go off in our direction...
Well then you keep on hoping, I have been hoping to many times in my life to know that when you rely on hope you are doomed. I dont hope while driving my car. For me hope is connected to something you have no control over.

Last time i had hope in traffic I crashed hard(drove of the road, im not a super human ) doing 130 km/h without knowing what i was doing, I was 18 and had my licence for under a month. Last time I had hope in trading was my first account where i lost 10 grand.

So say what you want, I know that if I loose some the probability for ending the week in profit are quiet large. I dont trade because I need my money tomorrow so in the end it dosent matter much if you lose some. In the end you will probably have the probability on your side. Statistics has nothing to do with hope and that is why it is so great, rely on probability rather than on hope.


That is my take. For example I know the probability of catching a major top/bottom has extremely low probability and therefor i dont do it.
  • #14,632
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:25pm Oct 30, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} nasty candle for shorts @19:02, but without continuation. market searching direction. sma100 tested again -> sl to be.
daily p ahead -> taking sl to +10
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,633
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:26pm Oct 30, 2015 1:26pm
Quoting NWGstudent
short @ daily high
Out 10848 + 12

Calling it a week
  • #14,634
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:31pm Oct 30, 2015 1:31pm
dow started disaster-month august @17718. if p does not hold, likelihood is good my tp will be hit.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,635
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:32pm Oct 30, 2015 1:32pm
Quoting deltaone
dow started disaster-month august @17718. if p does not hold, likelihood is good my tp will be hit.
and as soon as i type this: dragonfly doji at p
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  • #14,636
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:37pm Oct 30, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} and as soon as i type this: dragonfly doji at p
closed manually. +40
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  • #14,637
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:39pm Oct 30, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting NWGstudent
{quote} Well then you keep on hoping, I have been hoping to many times in my life to know that when you rely on hope you are doomed. I dont hope while driving my car. For me hope is connected to something you have no control over. Last time i had hope in traffic I crashed hard(drove of the road, im not a super human ) doing 130 km/h without knowing what i was doing, I was 18 and had my licence for under a month. Last time I had hope in trading was my first account where i lost 10 grand. So say what you want, I know that if I loose some the probability...
But that's just it, you're talking about reckless hope, like you as a teenager crashing your car, a great analogy for new traders who put their money on the line before they know what they are doing - they quickly crash their accounts. I'm not talking about reckless hope, I'm talking about controlled hope, when you have made sure that everything is in place to give you the best possible chance of succeeding. You seem to be drawing on your negative life experiences where you percieve that in some way, hope let you down. Equate it instead with your positive life experiences, where hope helped you to fulfill your goals, and you will realize that, even in trading, provided you know what you are doing, it is a force for good. Have a good weekend
  • #14,638
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:46pm Oct 30, 2015 1:46pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} closed manually. +40
classical. when losing hope and closing it - where will it go? right
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,639
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:52pm Oct 30, 2015 1:52pm
long @17726,4 sl -20 tp +60
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  • #14,640
  • Oct 30, 2015 2:02pm Oct 30, 2015 2:02pm
Quoting deltaone
long @17726,4 sl -20 tp +60
sl hit. -20
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