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Trading Made Simple

  • #62,261
  • Oct 29, 2015 12:30pm Oct 29, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting tibovwh
{quote} It happens... Fear and greed I'm looking at 4H chart now and I see a cross but #APB3. We bounced off that 132 level however and D1 TDI is oversold. Also divergence on 4H. Might attempt a small lot long... For the longer trend i'm still bearish however.
You are planning to buy in the upper line of the WRB (on APB). Using Japanese candles, you see there is TL which PA could not break. Wicks are appearing on the upper part of the candles. Candles are getting smaller. There is also resistance level. I do not like fibs, but I cannot overlook another point of confluence: PA is rejected at 78.6 retracement from the last swing. So I would not touch it right now. Maybe more experimented traders can correct me if I am wrong.
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  • #62,262
  • Oct 29, 2015 5:03pm Oct 29, 2015 5:03pm
Quoting sharemaster2
{quote} look up the word "martingale" and see if what you are saying really does work. Please hang on to your money and demo it to see how easy it is to blow your account doing that. All the best.
Thanks a lot. I read about Martingale and there seems to be a general concensus among traders that it is extremely risky. But I've been trading using this system for a month on a demo account and the results are encouraging. I wait for 30 pips to go against me before I open another position. The reward is mostly very modest but it is better than losing money.Well, I guess I won't learn until I've witnessed the destruction myself
  • #62,263
  • Oct 29, 2015 7:02pm Oct 29, 2015 7:02pm
Quoting failedbid
{quote} Thanks a lot. I read about Martingale and there seems to be a general concensus among traders that it is extremely risky. But I've been trading using this system for a month on a demo account and the results are encouraging. I wait for 30 pips to go against me before I open another position. The reward is mostly very modest but it is better than losing money.Well, I guess I won't learn until I've witnessed the destruction myself

You can average down with Martingale or Fibonacci or Linear or Fractional Multiplier, but at some point in time you will still need to cut losses and get out when you realised that you are wrong. What about when your are right, do you average up in the same way you average down?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #62,264
  • Oct 29, 2015 7:21pm Oct 29, 2015 7:21pm
Quoting Karpa
{quote} {quote} That's what I did on my phone and it looks flat on the phone it's not possible to uncheck the fixed minimum and maximum of the oscillator, there's no option for this

forget about doing any analysis on handphone. their screen size is too small to see enough details for us to make trading decisions.
do all your technical analysis and trade planning in advance on a proper PC based runnng MT4 and you can save all your charts in templates which you can recall when you need.
you can use your handphone to monitor trades while you are on the move.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #62,265
  • Oct 29, 2015 7:37pm Oct 29, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} You are planning to buy in the upper line of the WRB (on APB). Using Japanese candles, you see there is TL which PA could not break. Wicks are appearing on the upper part of the candles. Candles are getting smaller. There is also resistance level. I do not like fibs, but I cannot overlook another point of confluence: PA is rejected at 78.6 retracement from the last swing. So I would not touch it right now. Maybe more experimented traders can correct me if I am wrong. {image}

price often retraces back into the range of the Wide Range Bar WRB, not all WRBs but only some WRB.
therefore we must not chase after big candles when we trade H4 and D1 chart timeframes.

wait for the price to come back to where you want and get that entry with better price.
or you can build a position during the retracement to get an overall average entry price.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #62,266
  • Oct 29, 2015 8:00pm Oct 29, 2015 8:00pm
AUDUSD H4 30 Oct Tokyo open

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #62,267
  • Oct 29, 2015 8:11pm Oct 29, 2015 8:11pm
EURUSD H4 30 Oct

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #62,268
  • Oct 29, 2015 8:17pm Oct 29, 2015 8:17pm
we have Bank of Japan press conference today and later in the US session , Canadian GDP data release.
big movers for Friday week ending and month ending trading.

trade safe.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #62,269
  • Oct 29, 2015 8:27pm Oct 29, 2015 8:27pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Gold rally to 1176.50 was short-lived and brought down very strong by FOMC. Stochastics in the OverSold OS region is useless as the TDI is showing downward momentum. We shall see next week if the support will hold, otherwise more selling down to 1147.00 and look for reaction. {image}
yesterday selling down to 1147 was good.
today will be selling but where will be your stop loss?
target 1139.50

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #62,270
  • Edited Oct 30, 2015 12:15am Oct 29, 2015 11:45pm | Edited Oct 30, 2015 12:15am
are these good trades?
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  • #62,271
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:15am Oct 30, 2015 12:15am
Quoting secondpath
is this a good trade? {image}
Hi Sececondpath, if I can make a suggestion rather use the TDI Real time, with the blue volatility bands and yellow base line, it will give your more info if the trade will be good or not
  • #62,272
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:20am Oct 30, 2015 12:20am
Quoting secondpath
are these good trades? {image} {image}
Look at my screenshot below
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  • #62,273
  • Oct 30, 2015 2:15am Oct 30, 2015 2:15am
Quoting omonisha
{quote} On the EURJPY-H4 not much room for trade to run. Let us also learn please let us know your reason on those trade for long. {image}
Hi omonisha

Could you share your indicator which shows weekly, monthly daily high and lows

regards,
forfac
  • #62,274
  • Oct 30, 2015 2:18am Oct 30, 2015 2:18am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} You can average down with Martingale or Fibonacci or Linear or Fractional Multiplier, but at some point in time you will still need to cut losses and get out when you realised that you are wrong. What about when your are right, do you average up in the same way you average down?
I don't average up even though I'm tempted to do so when I see a trend in my favour. I've already blown one live account through scalping, over-trading and with no particular plan in place so this time, the idea is to keep it simple and keep myself disciplined. Also, apart from EUR/USD I look for pairs who don't have any significant news coming for atleast a couple of days. Because then they tend to move in range and form a wave which is good for martingale.
  • #62,275
  • Oct 30, 2015 3:20am Oct 30, 2015 3:20am
  •  Hpt
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: everybody trade at one`s own risk | 648 Posts
moin

GBPJPY H4

nice big candle without body , 04.00 GMT, confusing retailers , hunting longSL/shortSL which direction now ??
Further up , close just above big round number, or down - clues ?

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regards
Hpt
from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
  • #62,276
  • Oct 30, 2015 3:27am Oct 30, 2015 3:27am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} price often retraces back into the range of the Wide Range Bar WRB, not all WRBs but only some WRB. therefore we must not chase after big candles when we trade H4 and D1 chart timeframes. wait for the price to come back to where you want and get that entry with better price. or you can build a position during the retracement to get an overall average entry price.
Good morning, Big Emm!

I am confused. Isn't that what I was saying? That PA is at the top of WRB, so it retraced to where we want it, therefore a short would be more comfortable rather than a long? Maybe there is something I missed...
  • #62,277
  • Edited 6:22am Oct 30, 2015 4:01am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting failedbid
{quote} I don't average up even though I'm tempted to do so when I see a trend in my favour. I've already blown one live account through scalping, over-trading and with no particular plan in place so this time, the idea is to keep it simple and keep myself disciplined. Also, apart from EUR/USD I look for pairs who don't have any significant news coming for atleast a couple of days. Because then they tend to move in range and form a wave which is good for martingale.
I was trying martingale when I did not even know someone else thought about it before me. I thought I must be the smartest person on the face of the Earth for cracking the code. It seemed that there was no way I could have ended a day in a loss. And I was lucky. You know why? Because when I put the strategy into practice, I got a few days of ranging markets. And I mean really small range. They did not move at all. I should have stayed awake for days, in order to double the positions (a bot would be better at this). But my account would have been wiped out if I was trading directly on a live one, because there was absolutely no way I could have had so much money in my account to sustain such many doubled positions.

You say you use 30 pips as recovery zone. You start with 0,1 lots. After a loosing streak, you get this: 0,1 which let's say it is 1$. A recovery zone of 30 pips would make you end up in minus 30$. Then you double it.You lose 60 plus the first 30. Then you double the last loss again: 120, 240, 480, 960, 1920, 3840, 7680, 15360... How long will you be able to keep it up? It happens seldom, but when you get a losing streak, you're done. Account is finished. Keep in mind I did not use spreads in these calculations.

My above example is based on closing every lost trade, not hedging it, like you plan to do. I made some studies, and I came to the conclusion that it is better to close, then open double. But you'll still lose in the end. There is only one way you can win with martingale: NEVER USE IT!

Like I said, my luck was that I caught a very bad market when I first tried it. If I caught a good market for a few days, I would have gone to the live account. And in the future, my account would have been no more.

Others have tried it in the past. Look it up. There is an universal answer to this: don't do it, because the inevitable will happen. Mathematicians have tried it too, they tweaked it in many, many ways. In the end, the conclusion was the same: don't fall into this trap.

Learn PA better, because you'll have better chances.

I hope my martingale failure was helpful to you and it will make you take the right decision.
  • #62,278
  • Oct 30, 2015 4:32am Oct 30, 2015 4:32am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Good morning, Big Emm! I am confused. Isn't that what I was saying? That PA is at the top of WRB, so it retraced to where we want it, therefore a short would be more comfortable rather than a long? Maybe there is something I missed...
yes, you are correct to say that we look for PA around the top of the WRB range to pick a setup in that region.
but there will be times when the retracement does not reach the top of the WRB like EJ H4 today.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #62,279
  • Oct 30, 2015 4:40am Oct 30, 2015 4:40am
EURJPY 30 Oct H4.

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #62,280
  • Edited 5:24am Oct 30, 2015 4:56am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} I was....
The quality of your posts is getting better and better .. I saw your TMS priceaction analyses the last days..

subscribed
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
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