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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #58,341
  • Oct 29, 2015 12:52pm Oct 29, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting JackAce
Hi guys. I'm stuck in a trade since yesterday's FOMC. Im on sell usdjpy, got in at 120.330. Do you think it will come back? Im worried about BOJ news. Still qute new to this so (of course) im in with too big position (maybe i could make it to 122.025 before margin call). Any help would be appreciated. Thx
Don't know, could go both ways... if you make it don't be grredy exit at 120.33....You should only risk 0.5% account now, we are both newbies....look at this post Post 1,033,203 guy lost 200k
  • #58,342
  • Oct 29, 2015 1:08pm Oct 29, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting Conscript
{quote} Don't know, could go both ways... if you make it don't be grredy exit at 120.33....You should only risk 0.5% account now, we are both newbies....look at this post Post 1,033,203 guy lost 200k
Thx man. I know im in with a position too big. It was just a stupid mistake (typing).... that's why im soooo angry at myself. But now im just trying to survive this shit. Of course i'll get out if it comes down.
  • #58,343
  • Oct 29, 2015 1:18pm Oct 29, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting JackAce
{quote} Thx man. I know im in with a position too big. It was just a stupid mistake (typing).... that's why im soooo angry at myself. But now im just trying to survive this shit. Of course i'll get out if it comes down.
Good luck!... I keep telling myself when I'm in hard situations like yourself that I will not make same mistake again.... but after some time greed takes over and I find myself in the same situation... Very hard to control greed and fear in forex
  • #58,344
  • Oct 29, 2015 2:19pm Oct 29, 2015 2:19pm
Likely that BoJ will say "no need to do anything at the moment".

That should make Yen stronger, UJ come down.....

However .... I am often wrong.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #58,345
  • Oct 29, 2015 3:01pm Oct 29, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting Conscript
{quote} already in on the FTSE100 @6448.2 sl 6520 tp 5900
got out of the ftse@6394 and remaining cad/[email protected] ahead of BOJ
  • #58,346
  • Oct 29, 2015 3:10pm Oct 29, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting Conscript
{quote} Good luck!... I keep telling myself when I'm in hard situations like yourself that I will not make same mistake again.... but after some time greed takes over and I find myself in the same situation... Very hard to control greed and fear in forex

Ha ha ha, so true. Same with me.
I hope it gets better with training and experience. If not, then its just a time bomb every trade. Just waiting for margin call.
  • #58,347
  • Oct 29, 2015 3:19pm Oct 29, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting Exodus
Likely that BoJ will say "no need to do anything at the moment". That should make Yen stronger, UJ come down..... However .... I am often wrong.
thx
I also think that option is a LITTLE bit more possible.
Probably ill just leave it alone and see what happens.
  • #58,348
  • Oct 29, 2015 7:13pm Oct 29, 2015 7:13pm
Usd/Jpy regain 121.00 level ahead of BoJ economic policy decision, the market is waiting for Japan release its half-year forecast, we will then have clearer picture of it's economic situation.
  • #58,349
  • Oct 29, 2015 9:33pm Oct 29, 2015 9:33pm
echnical Analysis USD \ JPY
Price: 121.11
Resistance:
1. Y 121.00 / 10 - hour resistance
2. Y121.25 - maximum 28 October
3. Y121.49 / 56 - a maximum of Oct. 23, 1% -s' volatility
Support:
1. Y120.40 / 50 - hour support
2. Y120.18 - at least October 27
3. Y119.63 - at least October 22
Comment:
Support at Y120.15 well played its part on Wednesday, when we saw further gains of bulls who developed the movement from the minimum of the month Y118.10. However, the pair still has resistance at Y121.00. If the couple does not overcome it, at Y121.94 not count. At the same time, support rises to Y120.40-50. Her loss will again threaten Y120.18, and with it - and stability in the whole of the last climb.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 29.10.15.png Size: 34 KB
  • #58,350
  • Edited 10:50pm Oct 29, 2015 10:26pm | Edited 10:50pm
Quoting Exodus
Likely that BoJ will say "no need to do anything at the moment". That should make Yen stronger, UJ come down..... However .... I am often wrong.
Whoa .. you are right mate ... Do you have any good reading on learning FA?
  • #58,351
  • Oct 29, 2015 11:28pm Oct 29, 2015 11:28pm
Quoting JackAce
Hi guys. I'm stuck in a trade since yesterday's FOMC. Im on sell usdjpy, got in at 120.330. Do you think it will come back? Im worried about BOJ news. Still qute new to this so (of course) im in with too big position (maybe i could make it to 122.025 before margin call). Any help would be appreciated. Thx
Phew, i closed that position just in time before it went up again. No loss. Lucky escape
  • #58,352
  • Oct 29, 2015 11:58pm Oct 29, 2015 11:58pm
Here come the QE!

BoJ keep using QE (using Yen to buy assets)--> More Yen supply to the market-->Yen is depreciated

USDJPY breaks 121.25 then 121.47, and will be on the way to 125.00
  • #58,353
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:09am Oct 30, 2015 12:09am
Quoting thai.fast
Here come the QE! BoJ keep using QE (using Yen to buy assets)--> More Yen supply to the market-->Yen is depreciated USDJPY breaks 121.25 then 121.47, and will be on the way to 125.00
selling usd/jpy here is a gift, no QE = yen strength.
  • #58,354
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:37am Oct 30, 2015 12:37am
Quoting JackAce
{quote} Phew, i closed that position just in time before it went up again. No loss. Lucky escape
Good work...That was a close one, on my broker chart the price spiked to 120.282...
A few pips less and you would have still been in...
Looks like you have talent for piking targets accurately
  • #58,355
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:54am Oct 30, 2015 12:54am
UJ H1
potential bearish butterfly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forexfactory USDJPYH1.png Size: 37 KB
And falling's just another way to fly...
  • #58,356
  • Oct 30, 2015 1:28am Oct 30, 2015 1:28am
Looking to Sell somewhere 121.15
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #58,357
  • Oct 30, 2015 2:22am Oct 30, 2015 2:22am
BOJ's Kuroda press conference following monetary policy meeting 30 October 2015 (which seems god for yen)

  1. Recovery moderate despite EM slowdown
  2. Virtuous economic cycle is working in economy
  3. Japanese growth will exceed potential in FY2015 & 16
  4. CPI will be about 0.0% for the time being
  5. Expects to hit CPI target 2nd half of FY2016


plus earlier at the monetary policy statement no further QQE expansion....
Not piked a direction yet but I think on London sesion and New York USD/JPY will go down

  • #58,358
  • Oct 30, 2015 2:48am Oct 30, 2015 2:48am
Quoting JackAce
{quote} Phew, i closed that position just in time before it went up again. No loss. Lucky escape
Well done!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #58,359
  • Oct 30, 2015 3:18am Oct 30, 2015 3:18am
Quoting liquidice
{quote} Whoa .. you are right mate ... Do you have any good reading on learning FA?
....well ....not exactly, no ....it is a bit like learning to ride a bicycle

Most of my money is in the stock market. At times I have made huge gains over periods that range from a few months to a couple of years. The reason I was successful is because I identified some depressed situations which were temporary and held my positions. So in trying to do similar things in FX there are a few different aspects, namely the drivers are mostly completely different.

Around news the market is (was) driven by analysts changing their positions and stance because some talking head said something different to what was expected. Sometimes the TH will say something completely unexpected, such as when Abe introduced the 3 arrows of Abenomics. So as a trader you might consider what would cause the TH to say anything in particular, and for Japan (any country has similar affects) there are the current concerns over deflation and economic growth. So if you listen to the TH over the months, Kuroda in this case, they share information about their concerns. Currently the machine tools and factory orders are surprising to the upside and that is good for growth, not many or no negative inputs ... so is there cause for concern here .... so what is likely to be said? Of course you don't know what their models are telling them, also this guy posts lots of document links that might be useful.

I remain amazed that Japan can issue so much fiscal debt and not end up in a situation like the one that slapped Greece.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #58,360
  • Oct 30, 2015 3:35am Oct 30, 2015 3:35am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} ....well ....not exactly, no ....it is a bit like learning to ride a bicycle Most of my money is in the stock market. At times I have made huge gains over periods that range from a few months to a couple of years. The reason I was successful is because I identified some depressed situations which were temporary and held my positions. So in trying to do similar things in FX there are a few different aspects, namely the drivers are mostly completely different. Around news the market is (was) driven by analysts changing their positions and...
That is sooo much homework for me to catch up ... so you read everything about what ... USD JPY economy or everything ... I'd like to push my self into FA as well .. for newbie like me where do I start? Follow what news? So I can know (at least, maybe still wrong though) ... which direction they are going ..

Cheers mate
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