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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,501
  • Oct 28, 2015 12:58pm Oct 28, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting Driver55
ATM I'm focused @2084 {image}
...got 2099 for a knee jerk reaction...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,502
  • Oct 28, 2015 1:03pm Oct 28, 2015 1:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> On the fundamental side:

Not expecting much today. There is no macro outlook neither a conference later and the odds of a hike are 0 to none for today. Basically paying attention to the statement on any softening in inflation expectations and more importantly taking out the mention to the global slowdown and headwinds ....
As expected slightly less dovish ... but more importantly they took out the global slowdown ...

....and that was it ....clearing 1.1097x target from last week... Not expected much and agressively trailing the remaining one ...

Quoting sisse
ur point , 1.112x is last micro breakout [check]. If NY is going to finish the deal today is a quick in and out to the 1.09xx handle (1.097x) [check] for the FED....
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,503
  • Oct 28, 2015 1:07pm Oct 28, 2015 1:07pm
Brilliant! Congratulations again on your excellent overview.
  • #137,504
  • Oct 28, 2015 1:17pm Oct 28, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...got 2099 for a knee jerk reaction... sisse
I'll close this trade in 15 min... at the end of this 30 min. candle .
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #137,505
  • Oct 28, 2015 1:18pm Oct 28, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting sisse
--> For the Actual flows (only euro):.

  1. Non event/slight less dovish / no major changes FED will open a Zigzag move with 1.101x [check] as a rain maker for a soft test 1.094x [check]to settle the M roll around 1.097x [in play]. For those not already h...

.chin chin chin ...and done again 1.094x on the Euro and clearing all main targets in Gold and S&P simple trades. Oil is failing to pan out (expected after the world economy part was not as bad it supposed to be) so I may clear it before the close as I smell blood (a bear trap there) and I don't want to get trapped at these levels...

All Eyes on Equities losing 2070.xx...

Quoting Driver55
ATM I'm focused @2084 {image}
nicely done if you managed to load ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,506
  • Oct 28, 2015 1:39pm Oct 28, 2015 1:39pm
odd movement in gold ?

well, expected with all usdx strong, but with hike scenario going forward I would expect this move down to be faded
  • #137,507
  • Oct 28, 2015 1:40pm Oct 28, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting hathor
Hi my decent trader mates! Signals above daily tf: Monthly - Buy Weekly (new!), daily - Sell. Therefore I would like to sell as high it is possible. I don't think it will dive from current levels, first I would like to see a new high (or at least a try to crack current top) with huge sentiment change over retail traders (attacking top with very positive Eur data / very negative Usd data). Buying hysteria and stuffs like that...(TP 1.20 with bold characters from the breakout traders) -> H4 is still...
Was right.
Was wrong, yes it did.
Still waiting.

The best for you all, see you soon.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,508
  • Oct 28, 2015 1:44pm Oct 28, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting 21vs7
odd movement in gold ? well, expected with all usdx strong, but with hike scenario going forward I would expect this move down to be faded
hmm, exactly the opposite, man

nice to see the board roll while being loaded. just hope the equities break down!! - I bet they will since gold and eur/usd has started rolling.

hats off to sisses updates as always!!
  • #137,509
  • Oct 28, 2015 2:03pm Oct 28, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} hmm, exactly the opposite, man nice to see the board roll while being loaded. just hope the equities break down!! - I bet they will since gold and eur/usd has started rolling. h
Indeed. We wont get a party without equites breaking down . Boat is fully loaded and it will take a few for them to start unloading. As suspected the moves will extend as long as the M/W roll...

The only thing for sure, its some of the free money/low interest riders will start taking profits (what a ride they had this month) while real money will start looking with better eyes buying the dip as the global economy jitters start fading away ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,510
  • Oct 28, 2015 2:06pm Oct 28, 2015 2:06pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} hmm, exactly the opposite, man nice to see the board roll while being loaded. just hope the equities break down!! - I bet they will since gold and eur/usd has started rolling. hats off to sisses updates as always!!
closer to the hikes we move, higher chance of a selloff in equities.. in general hawks on the board, but relatively dovish in the last months..fragile world view adding pressure to FED. perhaps all in all they gonna fade themselves really.

concerning gold. tracking patiently and closer to the hike we go..ill try to buy it more.
  • #137,511
  • Oct 28, 2015 2:11pm Oct 28, 2015 2:11pm
Quoting 21vs7
tracking patiently and closer to the hike we go..ill try to buy it more.
Why mate? ... doesn't make much sense ...

Gold will hold better short term not because the FED is going to hike (hikes in general are very very bearish for gold) but because the ECB opened further rate cuts and more QE at least until DEC. ....but without that sooner (dec) or later (Q2 2016) Gold will have to take a heavy hammer when ECB, FED and BOE start normalising ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,512
  • Oct 28, 2015 2:17pm Oct 28, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} closer to the hikes we move, higher chance of a selloff in equities.. in general hawks on the board, but relatively dovish in the last months..fragile world view adding pressure to FED. perhaps all in all they gonna fade themselves really. concerning gold. tracking patiently and closer to the hike we go..ill try to buy it more.
well, my logic does not count into gold equities so much - what I see is simply higher rates =) lower demand for gold as a conservative instrument =) money moving out of it into other assets as influenced by higher rates . and I think the FED is the primary player here. ECB further easing may have some influence as Sisse noted earlier - "that it had opened 1240,xx for dovish FED case" - but with opposite scenarion - i.e. hikes in US - ECB may just make the landing of gold a little bit softer but I see it much much lower if we get the hikes, indeed.
  • #137,513
  • Oct 28, 2015 2:21pm Oct 28, 2015 2:21pm
hi sisse

how much higher, for the bear trap in OIL .......? back to 49.xx ?
  • #137,514
  • Oct 28, 2015 2:27pm Oct 28, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting nutts
hi sisse how much higher, for the bear trap in OIL .......? back to 49.xx ?
Loosing 45.7x for the closing range will make clear ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,515
  • Oct 28, 2015 2:42pm Oct 28, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Loosing 45.7x for the closing range will make clear .... sisse

Thanks , looking like it will.
  • #137,516
  • Oct 28, 2015 2:42pm Oct 28, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why mate? ... doesn't make much sense ... Gold will hold better short term not because the FED is going to hike (hikes in general are very very bearish for gold) but because the ECB opened further rate cuts and more QE at least until DEC. ....but without that sooner (dec) or later (Q2 2016) Gold will have to take a heavy hammer when ECB, FED and BOE start normalising ... sisse
..last flow seen in gold it moved into strength comparing to all major currencies..i am only trying to follow the flow.

Concerning the outcome of this hike wont mean gold in general will be on a sell, even thou USA interest rate is one of the important ones.

Im pretty sure we gonna have immediate impact on gold when world comes back to normalizing the rates, but at this point we are far from it. With BOJ, Sweden, Russia on hold and other Emerging in the dovish mode seems FED also pressured as said in 2q of 2015. Now looking closer thou.
  • #137,517
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:01pm Oct 28, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} well, my logic does not count into gold equities so much - what I see is simply higher rates =) lower demand for gold as a conservative instrument =) money moving out of it into other assets as influenced by higher rates . and I think the FED is the primary player here. ECB further easing may have some influence as Sisse noted earlier - "that it had opened 1240,xx for dovish FED case" - but with opposite scenarion - i.e. hikes in US - ECB may just make the landing of gold a little bit softer but I see it much much lower if we get the hikes,...
yeah, I dont argue this logic. im just saying that prolonging the hikes could lead into Q216, plus even if we do hike december, we are far from a worldwide normalizing of rates.
  • #137,518
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:29pm Oct 28, 2015 3:29pm
Equities held steady the test 2070.x and we are ticks away to complete a 100% retracement from the Chinese break out in the summer. FED pretty much confirmed that is not in the agenda anymore ....

On the rest of the board as widely expected short-lived moves for the initial reaction and we are ready for key M/W rolls across the board.

Here like usual when we are about to close a mid term chapter ...flat across the board (closing manually last open oil position on the failure to take 45.7x).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,519
  • Oct 29, 2015 1:16am Oct 29, 2015 1:16am
Sisse: do you foresee EURUSD reaching parity between now and December FED rate hike...? 1.046xx is the lowest we've seen since Feb 2015. If the ECB plans for more QE, do you think they will do that before or after FOMC rate hike? September was a shooting star and October has been a significantly lower low than prior month. Seems like technicals are headed short...have I completely read this wrong?
"Carpe Diem"
  • #137,520
  • Oct 29, 2015 3:36am Oct 29, 2015 3:36am
Markets digesting the FED. The general consensus is that we got a lot 'less dovish bordering on the hawkish' FED yesterday.

Without Global risk on the agenda, one more time the FED has nowhere to hide so pretty much we are back on the June/July environment when Sep hikes were on sight. For trading purposes, mark next NFP and Inflation reports as MAJOR (more than usual) movers and shakers in direct correlation with dollar.

Technicals will settle the deal for the W/M roll but they seem to be on track to align with the outlook....

Not much to do here but tracking and mapping the next round of trades for early NFP positioning.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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