Trading S+D With Facts Ebook

Interesting thread. I use price action in determining my trades. I have been on the PIE thread a bit, but it seems to be geared more towards Seiden's
trading method. Nothing wrong with that, I just approach it a bit differently. As a US trader, I am restricted to FIFO so I cannot "position" trades
(ie hedge) unless I wanted to open separate accounts, (kind of a hassle but it works.) At any rate, I mainly trade USDJPY and EURUSD pairs, with the
occasional aussie or pound trade thrown in. I find these two the most liquid. As far as entry and exits for trades I often set up my charts
(daily through 2hr) like the ones below. Since we are trading against someone/thing I look to where larger trade levels seem to occur, often whole numbers
but not a hard and fast rule. Just above or below seem to be areas where so called support or resistance take place. I believe it is the market makers
taking out the smaller traders be they retail or large positions taking out smaller M's. Once the supply is exhausted, the white areas on the charts then
seem to become distribution areas (price either moving above or below depending on trend and market conditions). My current favorite setup is when a 50sma(daily)
moves in one of these areas and price is also at the same location, or looking to approach this area following the trend. There is more but I have to get ready for game one world series. Check in with you later.
good luck to all,
regards
goma

Interesting stuff, I checked with Oanda on the NZD/USD positions, seems there are traders caught in the bull failure at 0.68350 - 0.68460 area (See positions graph)



Now I have plotted this area on the NZD/USD chart and it's clear that traders have been caught by a "potential" move up (See NZD/USD chart)



Price may or may not get up to the blue area but if it does we are waiting for price action to invite us into a deal (short) that is in our best interests. Isn't it better that price comes to us rather than chasing it

Dane...

Thanks for all the comments so far guys.


Dane i see this too, if you look you can also see that alot of people have recently got short, if the market moves up to where the buyers are trapped it should be enough to make the recent shorts close which would put more buy orders into the market.

Additional if the move up itself is strong (multiple large range bars} then that in turn should cause reactive traders to buy.



A longer term view

Look at the two up-moves previous to this, notice how there kind of choppy, compared with the current up move which we are in now this looks to be much stronger as evident by the near vertical movement with little to no pullbacks so far, could be in for a bit more downside in the near future.

Hey Willow,

I'm also seeing a point of interest on the USD/JPY pair at 121.00 handle where traders have been trapped! Given the current nerves in the market place with QE, interest rates and US and Chinese Stock markets completely at odds with reality etc etc and given the Yen is a safe haven currency this could be a good pace to short...

Dane...

Also if you go onto the open orders page there's an option to zoom in so you can see the levels in 6850 ,6900, 6950 etc

BTW here's the link to the orderbook just in case anyone cant find it.

http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...r-book#USD/JPY

Cheers

Dane...

Marked that level earlier today, i think USD/JPY is gearing up for a big down move before the end of the year maybe at the start of next year.

We've already seen huge wave of selling take it lower, could be large entities selling in anticipation of a new significant down move, they'll do it whilst the overall perception of the market is relatively positive {still in uptrend to alot of people} we saw the same thing happen on EUR/USD



The down move here still looks like its within the context of the structure of the market beforehand, people didn't expect a massive downtrend to occur this could be the same kind of situation on USD/JPY.

Time will tell i guess

Off to bed will chat more tomorrow.

Stops Building on USD/JPY








Could see the market spike into these

hey dane check this tool out just found it on the oanda site.

http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...market-tracker

lets see what happens

SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRADING - SOME BETTER RULES

Here is a collection of some rules that you can use to if you trade S+D in the current format {Sam Seiden} these rules should give you better success rate trading S+D because they are suited to the way the market really works.


1. Only trade areas that have been created recently - Recently depending on what time-frame your looking at, i trade the 1hour time frame so I'll only trade zones which have been created within a 24 hour period, if the market hasn't returned to these levels within 24 hours then i wont trade it.

2. Trade in the direction of the most recent higher high {for uptrends} or the most recent lower low {for downtrends} this will allow you to always be trading in the direction of the current trend.

3. Only trade in the direction of the trend on the time frame you trade off- in other words don't look at the daily trend and say because its going down in the daily chart I'm gonna try and trade supply zones on the 1hour chart to get short in line with the daily trend.

The trend on the the time frame you trade off is the one you should be trading the other trends on the other time frames are irrelevant to you

4. A zone with a strong move away is not more likely to work than a zone with a small move away.

Implement these rules and i guarantee you will be able to trade S+D more successfully

see anything similar about these?

Never ceases to amaze me the lack of interest threads like these get. I would cringe when reading these forums if I traded for a living, that's for sure.

Hey Willow,

I see on the USD/JPY the market responded to the levels you marked out after the FOMC circus today, nice job!

I like the rules you've added, they make good sense



Dane...

haha thanks Joey lol used to read your comments quite often before i joined FF, good to see you join the discussion.


You mean the stop run Dane??

Post No. 7 Willow

Cheers

Dane...

EUR/USD interesting psychology atm



If we look at the order graph we can see that there are still lots of people short from 1.10200 to 1.10500 levels, if these people don't exit their trades when the market moves lower we may see some kind of retrace back up , make em nervous that their only gonna end up with a small profit meaning they close their positions.




As for the people who were long before the drop.. well its safe to say they got completely obliterated.

Ahh you mean that level, was a small reaction, news releases always tend to throw a spanner in the mix.

The stop run would of been a nice trade though. did you look at the link i sent you?