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  • #1,032,901
  • Oct 27, 2015 10:39am Oct 27, 2015 10:39am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Agree no hike = pair goes up and vice versa. I meant that it looks to me like Draghi made his comments expecting the Fed to be dovish (weak) about hiking, so that the EURO would be in a better position to withstand the resulting knee jerk up reaction.
'No hike' came on the table back in July when it was first expected, and got its confirmation in August hence the liftoff to 1.17 appeared. Now all the talks about 'no hike' are just a garbage as it is already priced in (which is actually confirmed by post-september FOMC price action - failure to set a new high)
  • #1,032,902
  • Oct 27, 2015 10:45am Oct 27, 2015 10:45am
Quoting dhby
{quote} 'No hike' came on the table back in July when it was first expected, and got its confirmation in August hence the liftoff to 1.17 appeared. Now all the talks about 'no hike' are just a garbage as it is already priced in (which is actually confirmed by post-september FOMC price action - failure to set a new high)
And what if the FED is ready?

Still believe in longs?

Sooner ore later they have to do it.
  • #1,032,903
  • Oct 27, 2015 10:47am Oct 27, 2015 10:47am
Quoting 3Davy
{quote} And what if the FED is ready? Still believe in longs? Sooner ore later they have to do it.
I'm stating here that reaction to "no hike" from FED will be limited. But if they decide to hike this will become unexpected decision which will likely lead to a massive selloff
  • #1,032,904
  • Oct 27, 2015 10:48am Oct 27, 2015 10:48am
Quoting dhby
{quote} 'No hike' came on the table back in July when it was first expected, and got its confirmation in August hence the liftoff to 1.17 appeared. Now all the talks about 'no hike' are just a garbage as it is already priced in (which is actually confirmed by post-september FOMC price action - failure to set a new high)
Yeah, except for Yellen saying the following in a speech she made on September 24th

I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter as the labor market improves further and inflation moves back to our 2 percent objective.

That put some life back into it.
  • #1,032,905
  • Oct 27, 2015 10:52am Oct 27, 2015 10:52am
What time on Wednesday is the FED announcement coming out?
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered
  • #1,032,906
  • Edited 11:04am Oct 27, 2015 10:52am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Yeah, except for Yellen saying the following in a speech she made on September 24th I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter as the labor market improves further and inflation moves back to our 2 percent objective. That got put some life back into it.

And couple of days later on a post-FOMC press-conference she stated something like 'hike is very unlikely this year and somewhat another year or even more will be needed to become more sure economy is ready for that move'


edit: Ok, that was a prior event. Still she has added nothing new. Quoting the exerpt from press-conference

Most participants continue to expect that economic conditions will make it appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate later this year, although four participants now expect that such conditions will not be seen until next year or later. The median projection for the federal funds rate rises to about 1½ percent in late 2016, 2½ percent in late 2017, and 3½ percent in 2018
  • #1,032,907
  • Edited 11:18am Oct 27, 2015 11:02am | Edited 11:18am
Quoting dhby
{quote} And couple of days later on a post-FOMC press-conference she stated something like 'hike is very unlikely this year and somewhat another year or even more will be needed to become more sure economy is ready for that move'
I don't think so. The FOMC conference was a week before that on Sept 17th and the next time she spoke was on Sept 30, when she didn't say anything about the topic. As far as I know she hasn't spoken since then. So either it was someone else who said it or she said that before Sept 30. On Oct 1, one of her allies John Williams, governor of the SF Fed also said he sees a rate hike this year.

So if this statement comes out dovish it will surprise the market in my opinion and we'll get a nice knee-jerk move up. (Even though in my opinion, long term fundies are still bearish for it, because the ECB is continuing QE, and a China slowdown should hurt Europe more than the US, and eventually they will hike. In other words a good opportunity to look for shorts.)
  • #1,032,908
  • Oct 27, 2015 11:07am Oct 27, 2015 11:07am
Quoting loureed10
{quote} ...I may be wrong but...no hike equal hawkish so the pair goes up, rate hike, the pair goes down...dovish.
Its not that easy, depends a lot on what is being said aswell, and typed. If it would be so easy one would just buy if rate comes unchanged.

July no hike meeting.
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  • #1,032,909
  • Oct 27, 2015 11:21am Oct 27, 2015 11:21am
Quoting Driver55
GBPUSD Buy limit @1.5279
Trade is safe as long we stay above 1.53096 (openprice on 1H chart)
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #1,032,910
  • Oct 27, 2015 11:24am Oct 27, 2015 11:24am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Its not that easy, depends a lot on what is being said aswell, and typed. If it would be so easy one would just buy if rate comes unchanged. July no hike meeting. {image}
In my opinion, what happened (happens) is that when you get a no-hike (dovish on hikes) FOMC statement, the first thing that happens is a knee jerk up reaction on the EuroUsd.

Then the equities markets start to react to to the statement, and they go up too. However, since the relationship between the equities market and the EuroUsd has been inverse since the ECB started QE, when that kicks in the EURUSD goes down, since it is the funding currency.
  • #1,032,911
  • Oct 27, 2015 11:30am Oct 27, 2015 11:30am
possible buy at 1.1035
  • #1,032,912
  • Oct 27, 2015 11:40am Oct 27, 2015 11:40am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} In my opinion, what happened (happens) is that when you get a no-hike (dovish on hikes) FOMC statement, the first thing that happens is a knee jerk up reaction on the EuroUsd. Then the equities markets start to react to to the statement, and they go up too. However, since the relationship between the equities market and the EuroUsd has been inverse since the ECB started QE, when that kicks in the EURUSD goes down, since it is the funding currency.
Ye i agree all makes sense, but just saying that is theorizing situation after it happens. As trader you either pull the trigger or you dont. One would likely get stoped/slippered before hiting TP if you would long on release (no change). And if they hike, its likely to be very ugly slipperage SL.
  • #1,032,913
  • Oct 27, 2015 11:53am Oct 27, 2015 11:53am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} In my opinion, what happened (happens) is that when you get a no-hike (dovish on hikes) FOMC statement, the first thing that happens is a knee jerk up reaction on the EuroUsd. Then the equities markets start to react to to the statement, and they go up too. However, since the relationship between the equities market and the EuroUsd has been inverse since the ECB started QE, when that kicks in the EURUSD goes down, since it is the funding currency.
I agree with you.De facto, euro has became the new japanese yen... You loan for zero in eurozone and invest elsewhere.Free money, like it was in the past with the japanese yen.On top of that the euro is becoming less and less valuable, so , you gain two times. Both on the zero interest and on the weaking of the euro.A win-win situation
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #1,032,914
  • Oct 27, 2015 11:55am Oct 27, 2015 11:55am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I don't think so. The FOMC conference was a week before that on Sept 17th and the next time she spoke was on Sept 30, when she didn't say anything about the topic. As far as I know she hasn't spoken since then. So either it was someone else who said it or she said that before Sept 30. On Oct 1, one of her allies John Williams, governor of the SF Fed also said he sees a rate hike this year. So if this statement comes out dovish it will surprise the market in my opinion and we'll get a nice knee-jerk move up. (Even though in my opinion, long...
They are surprising us for 3 months already. When will it be enough for us to understand there will be no hike in the near future?
Yes there will be a reaction to the upside but I suspect it will be very limited and stopped in the area of lower 1.12
Lets also look into the chart marking all the events about a hike since July. As we can see: all below the price line of the July FOMC minutes was bought out before August FOMC. The 'No hike' move has started. All the bad data and confirmations of 'no hike' since then produced no new high and we are back below the initial July 'no hike' level. So you expect that tomorrow October 28 FOMC rate decision leaving the rate unchanged will trigger a super big move to the upside?
Small white lines from tomorrow show my expectation.
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  • #1,032,915
  • Oct 27, 2015 11:56am Oct 27, 2015 11:56am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Ye i agree all makes sense, but just saying that is theorizing situation after it happens. As trader you either pull the trigger or you dont. One would likely get stoped/slippered before hiting TP if you would long on release (no change). And if they hike, its likely to be very ugly slipperage SL.
True but it depends when, where and in what direction you enter. To me, it's short either way in the long term, because if they hike it's short and if they don't hike it's short after the equities effect kicks in (after a nice spike up). So I'm actually hoping they don't hike and that we get a nice spike back up to 1350- 1403, where I am going to look for shorts. If it just sits where we are now and then goes straight down from where we are now then I don't have anything to do until a retrace.
  • #1,032,916
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:11pm Oct 27, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting Driver55
{quote} Trade is safe as long we stay above 1.53096 (openprice on 1H chart)

Did your buy order trigger? The low on my chart was 1.52821
  • #1,032,917
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:18pm Oct 27, 2015 12:18pm
Quoting countdown
my tweet about rate hike from 2014... translation = no rate hike in 2015 {image}
still thinking same...
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do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #1,032,918
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:20pm Oct 27, 2015 12:20pm
after FOMC if price sit on 10866 i will buy it targeting 12729..
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #1,032,919
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:28pm Oct 27, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} True but it depends when, where and in what direction you enter. To me, it's short either way in the long term, because if they hike it's short and if they don't hike it's short after the equities effect kicks in (after a nice spike up). So I'm actually hoping they don't hike and that we get a nice spike back up to 1350- 1403, where I am going to look for shorts. If it just sits where we are now and then goes straight down from where we are now then I don't have anything to do until a retrace.
Ye i would be long term bear too with more QE kicking in for future. US will ease more too, but EUR will likely take larger hit. Like a poster above said EUR is becoming JPY. Devalue to stimulate exports/Germany and kick QE to stimulate economy.
  • #1,032,920
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:32pm Oct 27, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting ergest7
{quote} Did your buy order trigger? The low on my chart was 1.52821
No .. my original order has not been triggered and I'm jumped in @1.5287

Beside this ... I 've another low ..different from yours... it depends on what circuit you are working
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
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