USD/JPY Discussion

Further analysis.

Stochastic
Daily - Overbought
4 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
1 H - Overbought with bearish divergence

RSI (14)
Daily - Currently at 65 - clearly an uptrend has formed.
4 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
1 H - Overbought with bearish divergence

Weekly time frame is definitely on an uptrend channel. Price just bounced from the bottom of the channel around 118 area not long ago. RSI has now move above 50 and stochastic is pointing up (not in overbought yet) show the uptrend may have resume.

On xe.com price dipped 6 pips from friday's close. Although it is only a mere 6 pips. But I think it is quite rare for a price to move over Saturday + Sunday before interbank market operation opens in the (New Zealand/Aussie).

therefore in short term - I think that market 'may' trade south first. We 'may' have a gap down at market open. With 121.50 will cap from moving up in the short term. Short term means before Wednesday FOMC.

All in all ,

Long term trend = Up Up Up...
Reason : Due to divergence in monetary policy. US wanting to increase interest rate while Japan continue to ease with QQE. Unless FOMC surprises us with something huge. Something like US will not raise rate at all and continue the near zero policy for an extended period of time + Japan does not intend to boost QQE further or even reducing it? These 'surprises' of course are less likely.

Short term trend = Down. with 121.50 or 122 will become the resistance and 120 will become the support.
Reason : 1. Technical indicators showing overbought and bearish divergence in some of them
2. The overbought and bearish divergence occurs at 'significant number' - 121.50. which is almost at the top of the range (121.75)
3. Price at xe.com dipped on saturday/sunday before the interbank market opens. But we have to wait for interbank market to open in NZ/OZ in about 8 hours to confirm anything.
4. Traders in NZ/OZ/Japan may want to book some of their long USD/JPY profit first before pushing the market up further. Remember that when NY close on thursday, the price was around 120.92. But when the Asian market opened on Friday, they push the price down towards 120.60. (In my opinion, they're just booking profit from some of their long position from 120/119 area. They must have put loads of new buy order at 120.20 area as the price bounce in that area as Europe and US market opens.

These are just my speculation... I may be wrong. Never rely on other's opinion/analysis. We trade what we see.


FS

Great analysis ... thank you for sharing your view ... this will help me finding direction ... cheers mate ...

thoughts?
expecting the price will start to bounce from "arrow" mark.
exit on 122 area.

I hope you got out your position already .. it's 121.10

it was very soon...

This looks like a weak bear to me ... waiting to confirm long ..

I hope he stayed in.

On my broker price went up another couple of pips, and now it is below 120.

Frustratingly my broker's server appears to have taken the rest of the morning off.....!

edit: ...sorry that should have been 121.

We learn from our losses (not wins). At least we hope we do.

My analysis says- USDJPY will go up till 123.885 ( Supply level - where big boys are sitting to sell ). Looks like 121.161 ( entry to put orders ). taking out 1 set of profits at 121.467.

Please any advices from experienced traders

True and one must not be too proud of themselves .. at least not in forex

Seasonal trend

Buy USD against all currency pair from end of October till December.
For commodity currencies - continue to buy USD against them till end of January

Sell USD against EUR and GBP in January.
Buy Commodity currencies against USD in February - April and September/Mid of October.

Not sure whether it will be played out this time.
maybe US data will start turning green from now on and rate hike talk for December will be back on the table. Thus continuing this typical seasonal trend. Who knows..


FS

I think you are right .. no bulls today ... Are we in a middle of a trend change?

...well

I think UJ is range bound between 121.50 and 118.50 .... so a short from above 121 seems a reasonable bet.
There will not be a trend change until somebody says something momentous.
That may happen later this week, but everybody keeps saying "we want to raise rates, but it just doesn't seem right..."

So, watch the charts.

They just love to keep the volatily and uncertainty in the market ... You use daily to trade? May I ask how big is your SL each trade? or you use smaller TF for an entry?

Sometimes I use daily, mostly I trade smaller TF.
Looking at the longer TFs reveals some interesting aspects.
Looking at the shorter TFs gives help with choosing an entry.

Recently I discovered that the 1-minute chart reveals some interesting local Support-Resistance information.
I size my trades on account leverage, something like 5 times my account value.
I try to stick to 2% risk, but I also fail there.....

If you struggle with some concepts this thread may help you, read the first page ... a useful hour's work.

UsdJpy ====> Sell Stop : 120330 / TP : 119940 / SL : 121106

if this order open ; set Buy Stop with 2* lot size ;

Entry ===> 121106 / TP : 121498 / SL : 120330

GL
dont forget tomorrow FOMC

Heading to the thread now ... cheers mate ... I'm using M15 and H4 TF, one to see direction of trend and the other for entry ...

lol I love YEN

Learning a bigger TF ... ... If 120.18-ish breaks and stays below, it can push down to 119.62-ish ... All experts please correct me ... cheers ..

Nice bull trap!