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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #1,541
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:42pm Oct 23, 2015 12:42pm
scalping
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,542
  • Oct 23, 2015 12:48pm Oct 23, 2015 12:48pm
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,543
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:00pm Oct 23, 2015 11:00pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Dragizilla, devastation and intended route.

Godzilla week - ECB decision
Becoming the undisputed favorite of the week so expect to resolve Mario Draghi, who clearly and distinctly said on Thursday - the revision of the QE program will not only affect the hand of incentive programs Regulator is likely and we expect lower interest rates, even in the negative zone. Better than stated in the post, "the likely decrease in the rate of the ECB" and not say, but in a nutshell: in December, the ECB will reconsider its policy towards additional easing (stimulating), and while the Euro will continue to monitor and remain under pressure. Oskomu may soon knock down only a dollar.

It will be useful to note that, according to the report ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters have lowered forecasts for the European CPI
2015 was reduced from 0.2% to 0.1%
2016 was reduced from 1.3% to 1.0%
2017 was reduced from 1.6% to 1.5%
Bonus: The Central Bank of Norway, spoke about the impact of global rates in Norway. In general, the Bank is ready to move on.

All four major banks in Australia have raised mortgage rates, the markets in question capricious effects


After Westpac and the Commonwealth Bank made its move ANZ and NAB: mortgage rates were increased, reflecting the main line of resistance to the growth in property prices. Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly noted that the heated real estate market can be a problem and a further easing of monetary policy in such a situation does not look quite "correctly."
If yesterday (Thursday), AUD reacted to the increase in mortgage rates by the Commonwealth Bank growth, today, ANZ and NAB were ignored, it was not there and without Mario Draghi.
Resolute Draghi changed interest way investment flows, and in the same Westpac said on Friday: "Increasing mortgage rates all four whales - does not necessarily lead to lower interest rates RBA. Westpac expects the RBA rate unchanged in November, and its decline in December. "
But let's not forget about the lack of willingness from the RBA to see strong aud, and, perhaps, the next turning point will be the publication of the consumer price index in the next week. After this publication, the market will lead their thoughts in order.


The Bank of Canada remains at risk

Certainly in terms of thinking about the likelihood of change, and in this case easing: the regulator is still inclined to lower interest rates.
Despite the fact that overall retail sales was higher than expected (0.5% vs. 0.1%) benchmark Core Retail Sales appeared still worse than expected 0.0% growth excluding auto sales. These were followed at a distance of a day by the Bank of Canada lowered its forecasts for GDP only by Mario Draghi markets were distracted by the publication and decided to wait for a complete picture of the publication of the consumer price index.
Inflation, CPI, overrated this Friday, a slight mismatch of fact and forecast Canadian killed in tandem with the dollar.
But mostly silence acted factor drive pair on Thursday, at the time of "attack" the ECB and the US dollar interest arose on the eve of the completion of Friday.

Mad UK report, not without highlights

When the next Godzilla destroys home, somehow forget about the included iron: that is all quickly forgotten insane digit report UK retail sales: 1.9% growth to an estimated 0.4%. But, first, not the priorities of the week, and most importantly - a log in the eye still there: the previous release revised from 0.2% to -0.4%, which eliminates most of this growth, there is a positive, but ... You've got to be careful . The pound is now likely to remain thin, and the benefit of next week we will see the growth of the preliminary quarterly GDP at it and deliver.

Interestingly, the pound again gobbled up all the movement in the direction of deviation of the news. It is not simply "ate", and ran in a straight line in just a minute before release. This is not the first time. Wonderful coincidence, would not like to believe in the houses, but we can be of them ever did hear.


New Zealand

Basically was a statement of the main trends of the week, a little upset by the dairy auction. The red line is the interest rate decision next week. Will RBN on rate cut in October, we will know very soon, just on Wednesday, 28 October. It argued that the bank remains on hiatus, and recent statements by the Minister of Finance may be an argument that (forecast consumer credit China's positive). In any case, minutes of the meeting will bring clarity.


Results for lazy people

The ECB in December will expand the QE program and possibly reduce the rate, EUR remains under pressure. Australia prepared to reduce the rate, but strongly denies this (November - maybe in December - is likely). Canada is teetering on the prices of oil and determination of the United States, the balance is gradually transferred to the downside bets. Pound stand bye mode awaiting the publication of the quarterly GDP growth, retail sales hint at its future charm. NZD RBNZ Steytment be interested in the following week. It is likely that the Scandinavians continue iteration reduce their interest rates.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,544
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:01pm Oct 23, 2015 11:01pm
Tuesday
12:30
10/27/15
2 Kommentarii2 new comments
GB Advance GDP growth HOT!
(GB Prelim GDP), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 70.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,545
  • Edited Oct 25, 2015 9:34am Oct 24, 2015 11:46pm | Edited Oct 25, 2015 9:34am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} Can you explain the rules of engagement? this way i will myself test this strategy and will give feedback about results. thanks
Sorry for the late reply.

1. Look back the historical one min "spike" of the news you want to trade. Is it generally a clean, straight up or down. Or is it a hesitant type? If the former, pending order trapping approach will work. You can also decide on the TP and trailing stop parameters from the historical charts. I would normally go for 35 to 50% of one min spike. http://www.fasteconomicnews.com/fx_calendar.aspx
2. If the latter, I would stay away from the trapping method and do the following manual entry prior to news.
3. Draw a line chart on M1. Not candles. Apply 10 ema (red dot), 21 ema (green) and 34 ema (brown). Start watching 30 min before (sometimes 45 to 60 min before). Follow the trend and place manual orders.
4. By the time news starts, you will often have made 10 pips already.
5. If you want to only take a trade at news, do so 15 - 10 sec. before to avoid spread widening, slippage, requotes, etc. in the direction you have decided.
6. Oanda provides 15 and 30 sec charts. Draw the above ema's and watch these shorter TF's. Your decision on direction will be even more solid.

There is no strategy disclosed here. You only have to find your own way. The above is just my 2 cents.
Hope the above will be of help. toppo
  • #1,546
  • Oct 25, 2015 8:58am Oct 25, 2015 8:58am
Quoting toppo qqq
{quote} Sorry for the late reply. 1. Look back the historical one min "spike" of the news you want to trade. Is it generally a clean, straight up or down. Or is it a hesitant type? If the former, pending order trapping approach will work. You can also decide on the TP and trailing stop parameters from the historical charts. I would normally go for 35 to 50% of one min spike. http://www.fasteconomicnews.com/fx_calendar.aspx 2. If the latter, I would stay away from the trapping method and do the following manual entry prior to news. 3....


In trading on the news, everyone decides himself how he trade.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,547
  • Oct 25, 2015 11:21am Oct 25, 2015 11:21am
Quoting toppo qqq
{quote} Sorry for the late reply. 1. Look back the historical one min "spike" of the news you want to trade. Is it generally a clean, straight up or down. Or is it a hesitant type? If the former, pending order trapping approach will work. You can also decide on the TP and trailing stop parameters from the historical charts. I would normally go for 35 to 50% of one min spike. http://www.fasteconomicnews.com/fx_calendar.aspx 2. If the latter, I would stay away from the trapping method and do the following manual entry prior to news. 3....

thanks mate, but ... i'm more confused now than before. Not because your explanation was not right but because i dont see the logic behind it.
I will stick around more to see more trade results and 'maybe' i will get the ideea. cheers!

Quoting vvFish
{quote} In trading on the news, everyone decides himself how he trade.
so this thread is only to 'showoff' the results then? if its not 'open' to public and the method is ''.... what we are doing here?
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #1,548
  • Oct 26, 2015 4:51pm Oct 26, 2015 4:51pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,549
  • Oct 26, 2015 4:59pm Oct 26, 2015 4:59pm
Quoting vvFish
{image}{image}
Wow you did great!
I set TP for 10 pips and entered manually as price crossed EMA10 about 10 sec. before news.
I should have used trailing stop EA...
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  • #1,550
  • Oct 26, 2015 5:59pm Oct 26, 2015 5:59pm
Quoting toppo qqq
{quote} Wow you did great! I set TP for 10 pips and entered manually as price crossed EMA10 about 10 sec. before news. I should have used trailing stop EA... {image}

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,551
  • Oct 26, 2015 6:05pm Oct 26, 2015 6:05pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

GB Advance GDP growth
GB Prelim GDP

Let us remember: the second half of 2015 according to analysts and market expectations should pass enough "smartly", it is this period of time was to show gainer of conditions based on which will be based and the key aspects of monetary policy. Before the publication of our preliminary UK GDP for the third quarter 2015.

It seems to the time of publication, we will not see anything serious, and planned from now, the dollar is a little upset these housing starts, which introduces a pair of GBPUSD in the good before the trading condition, but again - pound loves to eat stir until release, watch the gusts of minutes before release. This technical aspects of the trade.

With regard to the fundamentals: the situation is "colorful", we call it so.

There is a serious dissonance between the policy of the ECB and the Bank of England. If the first going to reduce the interest rate and include a "fifth gear" on the printing press, the second is more severe and is going to raise interest rates. We already have one of the first reactions of Governor of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney: "increasing the interest rate of the Bank of England may, but not necessarily," which can make thinking in this direction - "ready if the Bank of England to break away from the euro area in a burst of desire to increase interest rates ready to break away from the AD whether the Fed in the same impulse? In this case, the positive statistics right now, as real GDP growth could push the matter? Questions, such as pushing only one answer: "Do not run ahead of the engine." This is in terms of position trading, but in terms of the impulse trade - deviation will cause volatility, but the administration is "oldfagi" stays true to secure the triggers, but your only choice is yours. Perhaps hungry for errors in this release and the markets will react to a minimum deviation, and can be quickly and "cool" as the forecast number is far from zero abroad.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,552
  • Oct 27, 2015 3:32am Oct 27, 2015 3:32am
At 8:30 am EDT the US will release Core Durable Goods Orders. Expected at 0.0 after a prior of -0.2.

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,553
  • Oct 27, 2015 4:36am Oct 27, 2015 4:36am
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  • #1,554
  • Oct 27, 2015 8:41am Oct 27, 2015 8:41am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,555
  • Oct 27, 2015 9:17am Oct 27, 2015 9:17am
Wednesday
2:30
10/28/15
AU CPI QUART
(AU CPI), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.


Inflation targeting Reserve Bank of Australia is always at the level of 2-3%, while the annual value of the consumer price index ranged from 1.5% for the general index to 2.2% of the base. Lower inflation could serve as an additional argument for the further reduction of the interest rate of the Bank.
Markets give 40-50% decrease in the interest rate again this year, with the likelihood of such an event can be adjusted immediately after the publication AU CPI.
The indicator is published on a quarterly basis, which gives it extra charm. Less release can be supplied for the originality of its data packet that includes a lot of variables. In the scenario pessimist (fact lower than forecast) would be to use the minimum deviation, but since the game does not run a ball, but several, a chance to get lost on the field is very large (even taking into account the fact that the balls are launched not at the same time).
CPI (Q/Q)
CPI (Y/Y)
CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q)
CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y)
CPI - Weighted Median (Q/Q)
CPI - Weighted Median (Y/Y)
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,556
  • Oct 27, 2015 7:35pm Oct 27, 2015 7:35pm
AUD CPI q/q 0.5% 0.7% 0.7%
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.3% 0.5% 0.6%
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  • #1,557
  • Oct 27, 2015 7:35pm Oct 27, 2015 7:35pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,558
  • Oct 27, 2015 7:48pm Oct 27, 2015 7:48pm
additive
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,559
  • Oct 27, 2015 7:54pm Oct 27, 2015 7:54pm
Wednesday
20:00
10/28/15
US interest rate CRITICAL
(US Federal Funds Rate), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
9% probability trades.

Wednesday
22:00
10/28/15
NZ Interest
(NZ Official Cash Rate), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
30% chance of trading

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may continue the policy of reducing interest rates. Despite the fact that we have heard about the positive feedback toward China on the part of the Minister of Finance NZ, on Monday, the New Zealander has received a slap on the trade balance: -1222M -822M vs. forecasted that in general, becomes the fourth in a series of serious shortages.
Since the beginning, the Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates from 3.5% to 2.75% while market expectations are at 2.5% by the end of this year. The latest iteration of reduction took place just recently, in September. Let's see whether the RBNZ began to break.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,560
  • Oct 28, 2015 7:13am Oct 28, 2015 7:13am
Quoting vvFish
additive {image}
from where do you take quick news results? as FF will update only few moments after the news and for sure you dont rely on this source.

you amaise me with your results.

thanks
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
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