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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #14,221
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:16am Oct 23, 2015 6:16am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} we may, but don't forget the surprises are moving the market (like yesterday) we might need another QE from the US to top that....
I reckon that the next surprise will be another move up and not down. Most countries usually follow each other with stimulus package announcements. I remember Taiwan announced one either before or after China did and after that both have been on their way up. Now we got one from Darghi which is supposed to start in December but heck we are still in October and we saw huge gains this last week alone. Who ever here was bull buying dips and holding made a killing but unfortunately I got burned as I thought we would pullback. I missed my flight..
  • #14,222
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:17am Oct 23, 2015 6:17am
Quoting traderblah
{quote} Oh well back to the drawing board
Drawing boards do not work when QE funds kick in. We are above the lines now so it is hard to cal the top. When we see rises like this take place they continue to milk it up to squeeze all short positions out of their positions.
  • #14,223
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:28am Oct 23, 2015 6:28am
With the Daily 200ema decisively broken now, there is no more resistance until 11,110, which is the Daily 200sma and 76.4% combined. We can still come down before that, and I am still watchful for diversion on the 30m/H1 which is still possible if for some reason we put a top in sometime soon. Otherwise, it's up up and away, just like the good old days!
  • #14,224
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:33am Oct 23, 2015 6:33am
Quoting cat
With the Daily 200ema decisively broken now, there is no more resistance until 11,110, which is the Daily 200sma and 76.4% combined. We can still come down before that, and I am still watchful for diversion on the 30m/H1 which is still possible if for some reason we put a top in sometime soon. Otherwise, it's up up and away, just like the good old days!
This is one crazy run today. I lost quite a bit with this run this week. You do well with this run? I should not have opened any short positions.
  • #14,225
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:38am Oct 23, 2015 6:38am
Japanese will for sure follow next week. Should be good to short YEN and buy Nikkei Index.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0SH01I20151023
  • #14,226
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:44am Oct 23, 2015 6:44am
Quoting stylinex
This year the DAX hit a high of around 12000 and now we are at around 10,600 which is not too far off the lows of the year. With more QE funds due before the end of the year which in this case is December we may be able to reach those highs of the year before the end of this year with the good old Santa Rally (AKA Christmas rally) via more QE stimulus boosts. Yesterday the DAX took a 100mg Viagra and we got overcast which not only boosted it yesterday but still up there today as well. As long as the DAX does not take another pill today or Monday...
A Market that rallies strongly on good news and ignores bad news is telling you something. Its saying clearly that I am going up - at least for now. I have not had time to post charts lately but will again soon. The important thing is that it does not pay to fight the tape. That is why I have never understood the point of CT trades - the risk reward is not there.

Its altogether another question what the consequences of all the QE will be both in Europe and the US. I think we are heading into a meltdown which will make 1929 look like a correction but that is a way off yet, in the meantime..........
  • #14,227
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:51am Oct 23, 2015 6:51am
Quoting Zoog
{quote} A Market that rallies strongly on good news and ignores bad news is telling you something. Its saying clearly that I am going up - at least for now. I have not had time to post charts lately but will again soon. The important thing is that it does not pay to fight the tape. That is why I have never understood the point of CT trades - the risk reward is not there. Its altogether another question what the consequences of all the QE will be both in Europe and the US. I think we are heading into a meltdown which will make 1929 look like a correction...
China just cut rates today so we rallied off of that news as well. They cut rates because the economy was really bad but cutting rates was seen as great news and US futures shot to the moon. Kicking myself in the ass for not holding my buy positions from 9400 earlier on this last dip for what I had known would be this upcoming Christmas rally that we see almost every year take place . Oh well... Next time
  • #14,228
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:51am Oct 23, 2015 6:51am
PBOC cut interest rates again by 25bs.... signs of weakness in china and more monetary policy stimulus. May sell down here the Dax... its gone up quickly
  • #14,229
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:55am Oct 23, 2015 6:55am
Quoting PariCovek
PBOC cut interest rates again by 25bs.... signs of weakness in china and more monetary policy stimulus. May sell down here the Dax... its gone up quickly
I would not short yet, look at Japan futures. They are up a lot. Next week Japan will most likely announce more QE funds which will propel Index up and YEN down. Most countries will follow.
  • #14,230
  • Oct 23, 2015 6:59am Oct 23, 2015 6:59am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} You won't understand me. I'm out of here. Good-Bye! FXcube
Das nenne ich mal ein kurzes Vergnügen - und eine erstaunliche Reaktion auf eine nüchterne Feststellung, von mir aus auch Antithese. Wie auch immer:
Viel Glück mit TAHR.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #14,231
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:10am Oct 23, 2015 7:10am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} This is one crazy run today. I lost quite a bit with this run this week. You do well with this run? I should not have opened any short positions.
Apart from a couple of sharp moves against the trend, there hasn't been a reason to short Dax since Oct 14th. Since then the H1 200ema/sma have been running solidly underneath the price supporting it all the time. Diversion on the H1 TF on the 13th and the 14th indicated that despite crossing the 200ema briefly, we were going to head back up. It's really important that you understand the medium to long term ( long term for us meaning week or two ) technical set up for any market, especially if you are going to be opening positions with the intention of holding them. I'm not telling you how to trade, but I am stressing the importance of knowing which way the price is likely to be going from day to day. Friendly advice, nothing more
  • #14,232
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:17am Oct 23, 2015 7:17am
Quoting cat
{quote} Apart from a couple of sharp moves against the trend, there hasn't been a reason to short Dax since Oct 14th. Since then the H1 200ema/sma have been running solidly underneath the price supporting it all the time. Diversion on the H1 TF on the 13th and the 14th indicated that despite crossing the 200ema briefly, we were going to head back up. It's really important that you understand the medium to long term ( long term for us meaning week or two ) technical set up for any market, especially if you are going to be opening positions with the...
Understand
I was looking at the last 5 year graphs for the DAX and it seems like pretty much every year we bottom between August and September then see a minimum of 10% gain on the index. Looks like I missed the sold 10% index gains for this year but will put a note of this in my calendar for next year not to miss out on. Some where between October and December one can count on a good 10% in gains every year. This year this was missed as we bottom just under 9400 recently and today hit just over 10,800 so we easily saw the 10% gains from there. Next years play will be to buy calls and hold after the dip for the last quarter expiring options in December. Buy them during the 3rd-4th week of September and hold on for Christmas rally. All one needs is 1 good trade for the year.
  • #14,233
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:22am Oct 23, 2015 7:22am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Understand I was looking at the last 5 year graphs for the DAX and it seems like pretty much every year we bottom between August and September then see a minimum of 10% gain on the index. Looks like I missed the sold 10% index gains for this year but will put a note of this in my calendar for next year not to miss out on. Some where between October and December one can count on a good 10% in gains every year. This year this was missed as we bottom just under 9400 recently and today hit just over 10,800 so we easily saw the 10%...
Here's my H1 chart, just so you can visually see the point I was making. There have been some good short opportunities on the small time frames, but the momentum was always up, though now of course, we've got so far above the 200ema after yesterday's rocket that it's difficult to know where it's going to go, although the price does sooner or later, return to the 200ema, as you'll see from the weekly chart here!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,234
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:33am Oct 23, 2015 7:33am
FTSE 100 returned to my previous position for a short so will try again with DAX/DOW/ FTSE
  • #14,235
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:39am Oct 23, 2015 7:39am
Sell /YM @17557, TP=17536
  • #14,236
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:54am Oct 23, 2015 7:54am
50 fib
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,237
  • Oct 23, 2015 8:28am Oct 23, 2015 8:28am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} Das nenne ich mal ein kurzes Vergngen - und eine erstaunliche Reaktion auf eine nchterne Feststellung, von mir aus auch Antithese. Wie auch immer: Viel Glck mit TAHR.
Schade, denn ich mag ForexCube Beiträge. Keine Ahnung weshalb da dein Post scheint völlig normal und harmlos. Wie merkwürdig!
  • #14,238
  • Edited 9:00am Oct 23, 2015 8:46am | Edited 9:00am
Diversion H1. It's not confirmed yet, but smaller charts are indicating we may have topped, and could start coming down, if not this afternoon, then Monday?

Dow Jones is at the 76.4% retrace from the May high, so this could be a significant level we are at now for both Dax and Dow, because if we blow right through these levels, then the Dax has got to be headed for the 11,120 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,239
  • Oct 23, 2015 9:10am Oct 23, 2015 9:10am
Quoting cat
Diversion H1. It's not confirmed yet, but smaller charts are indicating we may have topped, and could start coming down, if not this afternoon, then Monday? Dow Jones is at the 76.4% retrace from the May high, so this could be a significant level we are at now for both Dax and Dow, because if we blow right through these levels, then the Dax has got to be headed for the 11,120 area. {image}
You may be right Cat, it looks like it needs a breather after the last 24 hours (over 550 pts), and I see it gunning for the 200sma on Daily at the level you mention (11,115 on my charts). Another FX trader I know is indicating the EURUSD should get to 1.0875 early next week; which just adds more gun powder to this loaded gun!
  • #14,240
  • Edited 3:26pm Oct 23, 2015 9:21am | Edited 3:26pm
Short 10838
Currently @ BE

Three times' the charm ...

No target yet ... (Make or break at 10770)


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