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Fail Better

  • #6,061
  • Sep 28, 2015 10:36am Sep 28, 2015 10:36am
Quoting Siamceltic
Evening Gents, Some set-ups from my Sunday analysis below, any comments or criticism welcome. (1) EUR/GBP - Buy @ 0.7224 (4 Hour Chart) Comment: Buy dip from bullish flag into resistance. Daily chart showing long bias. SL: 0.72 TP: 0.7266 and 0.7402 {image} (2) USD/JPY - Sell @ 120.4 (1 Hour Chart) Comment: Sell bounce from previous support. Daily chart showing short bias. SL: 120.5 TP: 120.11 {image} (3) GBP/USD - Buy @ 1.5471 (1 Hour Chart) Comment: Buy at previous resistance. SL: 1.5457 TP: 1.5521 {image} (4) Silver - Buy @ 14.875 (1 Hour Chart)...
Hi SiamCeltic,

I will give you some feedback on each of these charts but before I do, do you want to fill me on on whether you took the first four (I notice the last three haven't hit your engagement levels yet) and if so, what the result was?
  • #6,062
  • Sep 28, 2015 11:15am Sep 28, 2015 11:15am
Quoting the_wizard
{quote} Hi SiamCeltic, I will give you some feedback on each of these charts but before I do, do you want to fill me on on whether you took the first four (I notice the last three haven't hit your engagement levels yet) and if so, what the result was?
Hi Wiz,

(1) - EUR/GBP - This trade executed and was stopped out. I decided my stop had been too small and the set-up was still valid. I re-entered at 0.7218 when a bullish sidebar formed, the rest of the trade went as planned. Scaled out 50% at 0.7200 and remaining profit at 0.7402 ( 108 pips)

(2) - USD/JPY - The order on this was pulled as price turned below the trigger level creating another level of support and invalidated the setup.

(3) - GBP/USD - Stopped out, my notes indicate the stop was a little tight. Also price did not accelerate into the area.

(4) - Silver - I didn't take this - Actually took a very similar set-up on Gold as it appeared to be a little cleaner. Bought at 1124.2 and scaled out 50% at 1136.7 and the remaining at 1146.6 (224 pips) See chart below.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thanks for looking into these mate.

Regards,

SiamCeltic
  • #6,063
  • Sep 29, 2015 8:13am Sep 29, 2015 8:13am
SO, would the attached screenshot of EUR/USD be a good area to get short. weekly level 1.2150. any comments appreciated
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,064
  • Oct 6, 2015 4:10pm Oct 6, 2015 4:10pm
Hi Tom, I've only ever been able to listen to your webinar once but the one time I listened you spoke about the time when you were a prop trader and worked with Nas ( hound of hounslow). It was a great webcast and sounded like you met a lot of interesting people, I was hoping you maybe able to respond to this thread with a couple of tales of success if you get the time. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=556951
While i'm writing this i'm enjoying your chat with traders interview
  • #6,065
  • Edited 12:17pm Oct 21, 2015 11:17am | Edited 12:17pm
Quoting Siamceltic
{quote} Hi Wiz, (1) - EUR/GBP - This trade executed and was stopped out. I decided my stop had been too small and the set-up was still valid. I re-entered at 0.7218 when a bullish sidebar formed, the rest of the trade went as planned. Scaled out 50% at 0.7200 and remaining profit at 0.7402 ( 108 pips) (2) - USD/JPY - The order on this was pulled as price turned below the trigger level creating another level of support and invalidated the setup. (3) - GBP/USD - Stopped out, my notes indicate the stop was a little tight. Also price did not accelerate...
Hi Siamceltic,

Sorry for the delay in responding.

EUR/GBP

The EUR/GBP trade was a decent enough level. However, I have attached a chart showing what I consider to be the last high pre-breakout on the H4 chart (0.7216) which is slightly lower than your original entry. The stop would have gone beneath the thrust candle (marked with the green arrow) which would have kept me in the original trade without the stop out and need to re-enter. My only concern with this trade would have been the area of prior lows marked with the blue box which would have been my usual target on a trade like this and presented us with a reward:risk ratio of less than 1.

USD/JPY

I would not have been prepared to sell this blind as this level had already been tested twice as resistance (marked by the red arrows in the chart below) and that means I would need to look for PA up there (principally an SFP). Having said that, even if we formed an SFP, I am looking for the swing highs to be ideally at least 1 X ATR (which these were not) and for the icing on the cake see MACD divergence across the peaks.

GBP/USD

I would never have taken this due to the fact that the next level (marked with the blue box) was literally just above the one you are buying (marked by the green arrow). Since I play from one level to the next the distance to target was unacceptable.

Silver

I would not have bought this as the level is not clean enough. You can see that price has chopped through during its last encounter with the level (see the price action in the black box below).

USD/CAD

I had the same trade planned.

I hope this helps
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,066
  • Oct 21, 2015 12:12pm Oct 21, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting banco
HI Wizard when you look at the first resistance before the breakout , does it have to be a pivot or simply the high of a bar / candle preceding the breakout. Kind regards
Hi Banco,

Can you post a chart as I am not sure exactly what you mean?

-Tom
  • #6,067
  • Oct 21, 2015 1:55pm Oct 21, 2015 1:55pm
Hi Tom and others as well..!

Im pretty newbie for trading but im very eager to learn this "game". My strategy is at the beginning the "techical conflunce zones + PA", im pretty sure you know what i mean..

I basically first try to find most obviously s/r-zones, trendlines, fib rets etc... in the daily chart. And when the price gets closer these zones("problem zones" as you have sometimes mentioned ), ill switch to 1h chart and ill start looking for pinbars to trigger the order.

Anyway, here are couple of pics, it would be cool if you can comment something about my thought process.

The first one pic is daily chart of eurusd and i drew most obviously levels there(in my opinion).

The second pic is hourly pic to trying to find entry.

My question is, do i just basically see and wait when the price reaches 38 fib or 50 fib, then i want it to break it, retrace(by doing pinbar) and so on..

Im sorry if my question is hard to understand but hopefully you get it..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Im gonna beat this game.
  • #6,068
  • Oct 21, 2015 3:50pm Oct 21, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting jacksup
SO, would the attached screenshot of EUR/USD be a good area to get short. weekly level 1.2150. any comments appreciated {image}
That general area will be good although it is a long way off!

If we start to approach it, we will refine the level further.
  • #6,069
  • Oct 22, 2015 5:26am Oct 22, 2015 5:26am
Quoting trader1212
Hi Tom and others as well..! Im pretty newbie for trading but im very eager to learn this "game". My strategy is at the beginning the "techical conflunce zones + PA", im pretty sure you know what i mean.. I basically first try to find most obviously s/r-zones, trendlines, fib rets etc... in the daily chart. And when the price gets closer these zones("problem zones" as you have sometimes mentioned ), ill switch to 1h chart and ill start looking for pinbars to trigger the order. Anyway, here are couple of pics, it would be cool if you can comment...
The key difference is that I usually do not wait for price action on the H1 but rather enter an order, ahead of time, at what I perceive to be excellent areas.

A quick note on your Fibs - the 50% is a decent enough area to look at when you have drawn the Fib from high to low and the market has rallied into it.

However, if looking at areas to buy, then I would run a Fib from low to high.

So, in this situation, I would not consider the 38% as a level to buy because it represents a sell side Fib...if that makes sense?
  • #6,070
  • Oct 25, 2015 5:26am Oct 25, 2015 5:26am
Quoting the_wizard
{quote} Hi Siamceltic, Sorry for the delay in responding. EUR/GBP The EUR/GBP trade was a decent enough level. However, I have attached a chart showing what I consider to be the last high pre-breakout on the H4 chart (0.7216) which is slightly lower than your original entry. The stop would have gone beneath the thrust candle (marked with the green arrow) which would have kept me in the original trade without the stop out and need to re-enter. My only concern with this trade would have been the area of prior lows marked with the blue box which would...
Tom,

Thanks for your excellent comments, certainly a good wake up call.

Regards,

SiamCeltic
  • #6,071
  • Oct 26, 2015 4:40pm Oct 26, 2015 4:40pm
Hello Tom,

I'd like to sincerely thank you for the effort and work you've put into showing people a path to becoming a successful trader. And also for reviving this thread. I've just finished reading through it, which also concluded reading the whole Educational stuff from your website. Amazing material, really, it's been immensely interesting to watch you evolve in your opinions and trading skills along the path.

I've been stumbling through the trading environment for about two years now, learning bits of wisdom from traders like FT71, Peter Davies and Kam Dhadwar, and putting those small jigsaw pieces into a larger picture which was my interest throughout the whole time: to uderstand the market. To understand why it does what it does, what do the participants think/feel/trade, where their pleasure/pain tresholds might be... But as strange as it may sound, although I found out many things, I didn't have a setup, nothing I could put my finger on to start trading consistently and monitor the results. I just wasn't able to put one together. I believe your RRT and SPF trades will be a good start to build from.

I'd like to ask you two questions, if I may.

First, for a trader not very experienced in actual trading - a rookie at that - would you recommend to watch several markets (and seeing a setup played more often to understand the setup more) or watch just one market and becoming very familiar with it (and understand the setup well for that market)?

Second, I'd like to ask you if you, as a long term professional trader, consider this possible: I'd like to take the S/R levels and other levels I've found to be very effective and watch the price action/order flow around them in effort to get the best entry possible and as little heat as possible, with a reasonable stop-loss, and to ride it for a profit into FTA's. This should (in my imagination) give me a very good R on most trades and also enable me to cut losers quick. Is this, in your opinion, possible to do, or am I walking with my head in the clouds?

Once again, thank you for everything you are doing.

Alt
  • #6,072
  • Nov 16, 2015 12:01pm Nov 16, 2015 12:01pm
Hi Tom, as a professional do you use the techniques such as the BEOVB bars etc from James16 in your day to day trading? I have been looking at these on the hourly and they seem quite promising, combined with fibos etc.
  • #6,073
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:29pm Dec 4, 2015 12:29pm
I would like to try and revive this thread for newer traders to post ideas and feedback on the strategy outlined in the thread.

It would be good to get feedback and comments from traders who have been trading this style for a while and can provide constructive feedback on trade ideas posted. Aferall teaching is the best form of learning

I would also be nice to hear from those that have made it their own what kind of returns they have been able to achieve, accuracy, drawdown , RR on average and which pairs they have had most success with. anyway I will be posting chart ideas regulary and hopefully others will get involved
  • #6,074
  • Dec 30, 2015 12:16pm Dec 30, 2015 12:16pm
Hi Tom,

I have sent you a message to the mail provided in your website.
Thank you.
  • #6,075
  • Jan 8, 2016 3:20am Jan 8, 2016 3:20am
some trade examples attached. please say if this is accurate use of method described in thread. any comments if you think these are good ideas or if I have missed something.
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  • #6,076
  • Jan 12, 2016 7:03am Jan 12, 2016 7:03am
another trade idea to confirm whether I'm getting the concepts
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  • #6,077
  • Edited 10:07am Jun 22, 2016 8:34am | Edited 10:07am
swing failure pattern in USD/CAD & last hi pre breakout sell
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  • #6,078
  • Jun 29, 2016 4:17am Jun 29, 2016 4:17am
Below marked out areas of interest on EUR

SFP at deep swing

level at 618 retrace of daily . would want to see a fast move up and past ADR to take an entry sell on this.

just recording ideas and potential set ups. will record what happened when/if price reaches levels to see what happened and what can be learned
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  • #6,079
  • Jun 29, 2016 4:25am Jun 29, 2016 4:25am
marked out ideas for study on USD/CAD

for the last high pre breakout trade, not sure if stop for this is safe. put below thrust candle.
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  • #6,080
  • Jul 1, 2016 9:11am Jul 1, 2016 9:11am
Quoting jacksup
marked out ideas for study on usd/cad for the last high pre breakout trade, not sure if stop for this is safe. Put below thrust candle. {image}
explanation of reason sfp was not a good trade on cad
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