EURUSD

fake prophet

Heheh nice one. I think daily S2 will be a nasty one to break. Unless it is done with force, maybe via the press converence later today.

GBP News destroyed my gbpusd shorts

more large qty trade at 1.1311 seems interesting level to watch by big players.

Or it might break above ... time will tell my friend

FINALLY heading to target...

EU will break 1.1295 ? any technical analysis

There is plenty demand ~1.128 or even below, My sand line is ~1.1085, but now it's more about China, and not about ECB, imho. Still we can end up this year in range where we started at, unless something happens.

Not steping in front of draghi here.. I'm tired. I havn't been sleeping well.. awake at wrong time of day. I'm drinking so tea..and relaxing.

500+ pips coming for UCAD bears
my target is 1.26

the hardest part of trading is staying patient for these big moves.
the entries aren't hard, but not taking profit early is.

What will Mario do?

The first set of pdfs show the last ten ECB press conferences for EURUSD and EURGBP. vol in the top left corner shows the (high-low) / low of the 2pm candle. For example, 1.1% for the last conference translates to a 120pip candle between 2-3pm. It does not say which way the candle goes. On average we get a 0.58% candle, which at 1.13 means 70 pips.

I'll post a summary of the vols going back to 2008 later.

History of ECB press conferences in EG and EU. Looking at EU, it is worth noting that there were volatile periods, when the PC caused big changes (for example 2008-2009 conferences with Trichet), then between 2009 and 2011 conferences were more or less non-events. Recently, they are pretty volatile..and I expect it to stay on the high side this afternoon. But that's just a guess... 1.1420 or 1.1180 doesn't seem to be out of reach.

I actually prefer to stay with bulls and am waiting for atleast a retest of the last high. The reason is that bulls have actually broken a longterm resistance recently, they also had a positive retest which was followed by a massive selloff (betting that C wave has ended on monthly TF) but the issue with that selloff is that it failed to break the last rally's ascending trendline which is now at 1.2875.
So first target is around 1.34 (for a double top if bears are getting in control), second 1.36 where the upper limit of the bull's monthly channel lies, immediate support is at 1.30.

you guys are really complicating things...

People in general are expecting draghi to not raise interest rates but give out a dovish tone. This means that it is neutral to bullish until december.
If draghi announces QE (unlikely) , eur will weaken.
If draghi sounds hawkish eur will rise.

There is a 2/3 chance that eur will strengthen.

No matter what happens at ECB press conference EURUSD will spike down to try. Because old foxes will use their old trick.

waiting for the ECB, or memories of Mario with a bigger loosening of QE if not possible up to EUR at this moment it looks so technically SHS

what if No QE but lower interest rate?

same effect as qe. eur will drop

For those who have itchy fingers and want to gamble, just buy the EUR/USD.
Trust me I just came back from the future.