Swing FX EA

Let's look at today's trades and compare it to a backtest. You'll notice 3 trades were placed, luckily all 3 winners and all 3 reflect in the backtest, which is exactly what we want to see! I'll do another test on Wednesday and then Friday.

And below the chart is a profit/loss comparison from 25 Sept 2015, which show that my Live Account is pretty much the same as the Backtest during the same period. Keeping in mind that during Live Trading I pay commission as well so we would expect the Live Account to not grow as fast as the Backtest.

As you will notice we are currently going through a draw down period, which is quite normal, because this is not a "100% all winners" forex robot nor is it a "Martingale/Grid" type trader, which closes each basket of orders in profit. We saw this during the testing periods so we should expect to see it during liver trading as well.

So why did we pick up 3 losing trades?

In the chart attached I've marked 5 trades.

1. Sell order and closed in profit
2. Sell order got spiked out and stop loss was hit
3. Sell order as spike returned into range and closed in profit
4. Sell order back in range and closed in profit
5. Buy order anticipating the swing as we have not yet seen the range break and got stopped out

After that you'll notice no trades were placed as the robot will now wait for price to return into a possible range state. What might happen and it will happen is if you see a waterfall type chart or steps where price will trend and retrace and trend again the robot will pick up some losers, because a retrace is sometimes seen as a swing back in range. That is unfortunately not something I could avoid when I worked out the strategy.

To conclude - this is really the first time since I've started running the EA live that we have a draw down and like I said it was expected and all we have to do is ride it out.

So many traders would not like it if their forex robot did not place any trades for one day?

Today my robot did not place any trades, because it is during these trending markets that many swing trades loose a lot of money.

Because of the entry conditions coded into my robot it will not place trades during these conditions, which is why the draw down periods are controlled.

I forgot to ran a backtest comparison yesterday so I did one quickly. So far the live account and backtest is pretty much in sync - if anything the live account is performing slightly better. I'm very satisfied at this stage that the equity curves are pointing in the same direction

Not much action today so comparison pretty much the same as yesterday.

Have a good weekend all and see you next week!

SwingFX EA V1.0 has been updated with one or two small changes.

These changes produced the following improvements:

 

1. Max draw down during 8 year back test - 9.8%
2. Overall gain during 8 year back test - 5.26M%
3. Improved Profit Factor now 1.28
4. Improved equity curve

Risk of Ruin stats for my live account.

The accuracy between Live and Back Test data seems to be very good indeed. Really nice job on the long term back testing as well!

Thank you!

I wish you well when you go live on Monday with SwingFX.

Thank you, it looks really superior!

Let's look at the trades for yesterday and this morning and compare that to a back test. You'll notice 4 order were placed and all 4 orders in the Live account is spot on with the order in the Backtest, confirming that the EA is still very much in sync with the backtest and it's behavior.

If the account number needs to be changed for some reason, say change of broker etc. will it be possible?

Yes it will be possible. Off cause not 10 or 20 times, but if you change your broker and have new acc number you'll get a copy that will work with your new account.

SwingFX V1.1 was released today. It can be used as low risk, long term trader or for those with an appetite for more more aggressive trading you can now simply increase the risk setting and the EA should give your equity curve a good boost. Please keep in mind that this EA does not use an aggressive recovery strategy, which means you will go through draw down periods. It does NOT use martingale so not all trades are winners.

Enjoy!

Which settings do You use on forward/backtesting?

Default settings as per V1.1

You can only change the TP and SL, which by the way is not recommended. With the aggressive performance above I've simply increased the Risk setting.

Keep in mind V1.1 released today choose better entry positions and I've also lowered the default SL by 5 pips, which produces more profit.

My forward testing from today onward is with V1.1 with Risk = 3.

Comparing trades to day between my Live Account and a Backtest for today.

3 Trades and all 3 spot-on with my Live Account at HotForex ( 1 Looser, 1 Winners and 1 Active Sell ).

Some of my clients have notified me that their trades do not line-up with mine and that is something I will look into, but I'm not sure I can do anything about it, because I cannot fix the entries and I cannot limit the spread, because then many trades might be lost. So I think at the end of the day we have to determine which brokers are the one's that give the most accurate performance compared to my Live Account and Backtest. This exercise will take a couple of weeks and I need all of your input. If you are trading my SwingFX V1.1 EA please compare your trades to mine when I post my charts and let me know when your performance is different from mine.

Thank you for your participation in this regard.

Maybe its best with Hotforex? I guess You have developed it with them.
Elovv

Maybe You can do backtest with other brookers and compare results?

I have developed using tick data from Dukascopy and then I did back test with tick data and Hotforex data. Both produced similar results and equity curve and the tick data produced slightly more profit.

Because the spread on this pair is so sensitive between brokers I think it would be best if everybody could stick with one or two brokers. So far HotForex is the only one producing effective results and in sync with testing. I will run some back tests with other brokers too see if I pick up a difference in performance. I believe that only Live trading will give us the true picture, because that is when execution, spread, slippage, etc will be playing a big role in the success of not only this ea, but also any other ea.

I'll update as soon as I have done the necessary tests.