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Attachments: Swing FX EA
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Swing FX EA

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Nov 12, 2015 1:40pm Sep 19, 2015 4:31pm | Edited Nov 12, 2015 1:40pm
This is another EA I've created to trade the AUDNZD currency pair. I've done a 10 year backtest for your analyses and forward testing started 25 Sept 2015. This EA require low spread on this currency pair so I recommend using HotForex Zero Spread. currently testing JFD Brokers with lower spread and less commission.

What is great though is you do not need a $1k account to use this EA, because you can use an account as small as $100. In fact, the 10 year backtest was done with a starting balance of only $100 as well as my forward testing account! Also you'll notice during the 5 year backtest period in a post below with a fixed lot size the max draw down was only $48!

Some Backtest Stats:

  1. Start Balance: $100
  2. Testing Period: 8 Years ( using dukascopy tick data )
  3. Max Draw Down: 9.8%
  4. Total Profit: $5.26M


Myfxbook 8 year backtest - http://www.myfxbook.com/strategies/swingfx-ea-v10/88494

Aggressive 5 year backtest - http://www.myfxbook.com/strategies/swingfx-v11/88637

Forward Testing - https://www.myfxbook.com/members/fxi...fx-v12/1424703


Purchase Price: $95 via Paypal - http://www.swingfxea.com

SwingFX V1.1 Updated 20 October 2015

SwingFX V1.2 with News Filter Updated 09 November 2015

Website for Purchase - http://swingfxea.com/

Skype: fxinvestfund03

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swingfx_myfxbook_graph.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: swingfx_myfxbook_monthly.png Size: 34 KB
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  • #2
  • Sep 20, 2015 2:54am Sep 20, 2015 2:54am
2 pip spread is fine but it will come with commission also?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #3
  • Sep 20, 2015 3:35am Sep 20, 2015 3:35am
Quoting Rtm
2 pip spread is fine but it will come with commission also?
I'm not sure about commission - still trying to find tight spread on this pair, but if commission is added to orders then it won't be that great!

I'm currently trying other pairs with more acceptable spread and adjusting accordingly.
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  • #4
  • Sep 20, 2015 5:06am Sep 20, 2015 5:06am
Found this at HotForex - AUDNZD spread of 1.9 pips and $4 commission - will do testing with these figures then we see what we get.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hotforex_spread.png Size: 54 KB
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  • #5
  • Sep 22, 2015 11:01pm Sep 22, 2015 11:01pm
I've done more tests with tick data from Dukascopy. Going back for 5 years and with a spread of 2 pips here are the results. For some reason the Modeling Quality shows n/a, but on the second screen you will notice an all green bar, which means 99,9% modeling quality. Anyway - these tests are only as good as the forward testing, but I like to start from a solid base so that I know what to expect. Again like with my other EA this is not an aggressive trader, but focused more on keeping the draw down as low as possible.

Note: Starting balance = $100

Forward testing will start from Monday 28 Sept.

More info at www.fxinvestfund.com
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swingfx_5yearbacktest.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: swingfx_5yearbacktest2.png Size: 24 KB
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  • #6
  • Sep 24, 2015 10:40am Sep 24, 2015 10:40am
Forward testing starts tomorrow and current spread at Hotforex looks promising!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd_m30.png Size: 19 KB
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  • #7
  • Sep 25, 2015 11:14pm Sep 25, 2015 11:14pm
I guess I could not have asked for a better start!
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  • #8
  • Sep 27, 2015 10:31am Sep 27, 2015 10:31am
From what I could find on the Net over the weekend it looks like ICMarkets might be the best broker to go with when trading the this EA, because they offer ECN Sread Avg of 1.4 pips with $3.50 commission, which will result in $7.00 round trade per 100,000. This is almost half of Hotforex's commission, so I might move my account to them in the near future.
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  • #9
  • Oct 2, 2015 11:00am Oct 2, 2015 11:00am
Another good week ended in profit. Not much, but very much acceptable I would think seeing that we are not looking to double our account month after month.

I'm also in the process of looking to align myself with IC Markets as an affiliate or IB and will then be able to give this ea Free to everybody that opens a new account with IC Markets and funds it with a min of $200. Their average spread on the AUDNZD currency pair is below 2.0 pips and their commission is also very low.

I will update this thread and my website once all has been setup for those looking to trade my Swing FX EA.
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  • #10
  • Oct 5, 2015 1:33pm Oct 5, 2015 1:33pm
IC Markets Spread is really looking good for this currency pair

Thinking of moving my account over to them shortly. Their commission is also much more less that HotForex.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: icmarkets_spread.png Size: 21 KB
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  • #11
  • Oct 7, 2015 11:13pm Oct 7, 2015 11:13pm
Notice in the chart attached how this EA did not trade during the breakout/waterfall type price action period. Normally you would find that swing trade type ea's will keep adding buy order during such a period anticipating that price must swing back up. This is also why many people do not like swing trades, because once a currency starts trending like this you start loosing... But, I have something special in the entry conditions that prevent this ea from trading during these conditions and adding to the losses. Notice how the ea only started trading after price settled down in a range again and banked 5 winners in a row.

Gotta love it!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swing fx chart breakout no trade.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #12
  • Oct 8, 2015 11:15pm Oct 8, 2015 11:15pm
Many people look at backtests and the performance of an ea during the backtest and then say that you'll never get those kind of results in live trading, because the trades in live trading always differ from those during backtesting. The main reason for this is of course due to lag on the mt4 platform, slippage and requotes from your broker and then also spread that might differ from the spread in the backtest. And I fully agree with them - many many times you test an EA and it performs extremely well during backtesting, but the moment you drop it on your mt4 chart it start loosing money.

That is why after a day's live trading of my Swing FX ea I go back and run a backtest for that day to compare the two. Ideally I want to see the backtest showing similar results as the live trades, because then I know that the testing done over a 10 year period is legit and it is only an extreme change in market conditions that can cause this ea to fail.

So, below I've added the comparison between live trading and backtesting of the last 2 days. The trades that are similar in both live and backtesting are marked Green and the one's that are not similar are marked in Red. I'm very glad to say that out of 13 trades, 12 trades are identical and only 1 trade in my live account does not show up in the backtest.

I'll keep tracking this comparison and after a month or two we should have some idea of how legitimate the 10 year backtest is and if it would be worth for anybody to invest some money into this ea.

Happy Friday!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swingfx_chart_comparison_backtest.png Size: 65 KB
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  • #13
  • Oct 9, 2015 1:43pm Oct 9, 2015 1:43pm
This brings us to the end of the week. I'm attaching today's trades as well as the backtest showing both trades identical, which is great to see.

Also notice how the ea did not place any short trades during the strong up trend? This is where many swing trades will add on more and more short orders, because swing trades mostly relay on over bought/sold areas. My Swing FX ea does not trade during strong trending periods like these, which is one reason why it has such good performance.

Below is the chart showing today's trades and also the backtest for today.

Have a good weekend all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swingfx_chart_comparison_backtest_02.png Size: 26 KB
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  • #14
  • Oct 10, 2015 11:46am Oct 10, 2015 11:46am
So what do you do when it's weekend and the market is closed........... you have some fun with backtesting

Below is an 8 year backtest with Dukas Copy tick data and Risk setting = 2

Take note of the Low Draw Down and start up capital is $200!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strategy_swingfx_8years_risk2.png Size: 48 KB
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  • #15
  • Oct 10, 2015 3:32pm Oct 10, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting fxinvestfund
Another good week ended in profit. Not much, but very much acceptable I would think seeing that we are not looking to double our account month after month. I'm also in the process of looking to align myself with IC Markets as an affiliate or IB and will then be able to give this ea Free to everybody that opens a new account with IC Markets and funds it with a min of $200. Their average spread on the AUDNZD currency pair is below 2.0 pips and their commission is also very low. I will update this thread and my website once all has been setup for those...
Hi Im very interested in Your EA. I trade with FXCM Au, their spread on AUDNZD are 1,7 pip, comission is 12 USD roundturn. So I guess its best to open an account with IC.
  • #16
  • Oct 10, 2015 11:14pm Oct 10, 2015 11:14pm
Quoting Elovv
{quote} Hi Im very interested in Your EA. I trade with FXCM Au, their spread on AUDNZD are 1,7 pip, comission is 12 USD roundturn. So I guess its best to open an account with IC.
Hi Elovv,

1.7 pip Spread is great and it is just about the avg you'll get from IC, however IC's commission is $7 as suppose to $12 so from that point of view it would be better to open an account with IC yes.

Here is a calculation showing the difference in profit over an eight year period. I've done a backtest with $200 and fixed the lot size at 0.01, which means each roundturn would cost 0.12 ( FXCM ) or 0.07 ( IC )

Total Trades: 9021
Total Profit: $4412 ( fixed lot 0.01 )
Commission @ 0.07: $631.47 ( IC )
Commission @ 0.12: $1082.52 ( FXCM )

So, as a percentage to Total Profit paying 0.07 would take 14.3% off your profit and 0.12 would take 24.5% off your profit.

In the long run it would be better to setup with a broker charging less commission specially once you start trading big money.
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  • #17
  • Oct 11, 2015 2:09am Oct 11, 2015 2:09am
The Ea looks good but the average win / loss is concerning, even the profit factor is not very high..


But the biggest problem is that as you can see on the backtest there are very long period of time where there is no gain and goes sideway.....
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #18
  • Oct 11, 2015 2:43am Oct 11, 2015 2:43am
Quoting Lacunoide
The Ea looks good but the average win / loss is concerning, even the profit factor is not very high.. But the biggest problem is that as you can see on the backtest there are very long period of time where there is no gain and goes sideway.....
For best analyses of monthly performance I suggest you study the backtest at myfxbook. You'll notice a couple of months ended up in negative profit, 2%, 4%, etc.

The ea must be used for longterm trading, which is when it becomes consistent profitable.
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  • #19
  • Oct 11, 2015 3:36am Oct 11, 2015 3:36am
Quoting fxinvestfund
{quote} For best analyses of monthly performance I suggest you study the backtest at myfxbook. You'll notice a couple of months ended up in negative profit, 2%, 4%, etc. The ea must be used for longterm trading, which is when it becomes consistent profitable.

The strategy is good but as I said, there are long sideway period that can last for months as you can see in the backtest.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ssssaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaae.png Size: 28 KB



The profit factor is only 1.19 , too low in my opinion.

And there is a red flag here: Average Win:15.00 pips / $508.92
Average Loss:-35.00 pips / -$1652.31

In my humble opinion, the strategy is good but I don't know how long it will last.
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #20
  • Oct 11, 2015 5:14am Oct 11, 2015 5:14am
Quoting Lacunoide
{quote} The strategy is good but as I said, there are long sideway period that can last for months as you can see in the backtest. {image} The profit factor is only 1.19 , too low in my opinion. And there is a red flag here: Average Win:15.00 pips / $508.92 Average Loss:-35.00 pips / -$1652.31 In my humble opinion, the strategy is good but I don't know how long it will last.
Fair enough - everybody is entitled to their opinion and I'll respect yours.
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